DIGITAL POLITICS OP-ED: The anti-foreigner movement squares up to the state in run-up to elections

With less than a week to go before the 4 November local elections, the anti-foreigner movement turned its fire on the state itself. The acting police minister went to court to stop March and March from protesting in Durban, the President deployed soldiers to KwaZulu-Natal and Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma cast both as a government at war with its own citizens. The movement’s share of the conversation rebounded sharply, while the EFF, after its best week, spent this one responding to claims that the state’s spy agency had been used to infiltrate it.

Between Friday, 23 October and Thursday, 29 October 2026, Murmur Intelligence tracked political conversation across X, popular public Facebook pages and online news. On X, about 760,000 posts related directly to South African parties, institutions and politicians – either authored by them, mentions of them or reposts of them – up from about 610,000 last week.

The anti-foreigner movement: Back on top

The anti-foreigner movement continued to attack the pillars of the state this week. Two anti-foreigner communities produced 43% of all posts on X from 25% of accounts, up from 31% last week. Ngobese-Zuma’s community alone produced 32% of posts from 17% of accounts and had the highest average buzzer score (users who single-mindedly focus on amplifying specific key influencers) of any community. It benefits from notable levels of focused amplification, including a small group of accounts that repeatedly reposted Ngobese-Zuma, Vuyo Zungula and actor Tumisho Masha (a relatively new face in this community) together. However, while this raises red flags, it is not possible to say from this analysis whether that is due to fan, activist or otherwise inauthentically coordinated behaviour.

This week, the anti-foreigner movement’s narratives centred on its fight with the state. Their content emphasised the following grievance narratives:

The state is silencing us: The movement’s most-shared post announced that the minister of police wanted March and March interdicted from marching, picketing or holding motorcades. Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia’s application targets protests around Durban’s Home Affairs refugee centre, and the ATM – a long-standing anchor in this community reaching all the way back to 2020 – accused the government of trying to silence frustrated citizens.

The army protects foreigners, not citizens: After Ramaphosa informed Parliament that 510 SANDF members would support the police in KwaZulu-Natal, Ngobese-Zuma asked why he would spend “R34-million” on soldiers “to protect foreigners” but not the border, and invoked Marikana. Masha asked why the army was sent to peaceful protesters rather than armed gangs.

An ethnic framing: Ngobese-Zuma said police had called marchers “Zulus” and urged followers to make Ramaphosa trend, feeding #RamaphosaMustGo. By Thursday she was posting from marches in Tshwane and Polokwane, mocking the label of a “Zulu” movement.

An absent President: Ramaphosa was cast as indifferent to citizens’ suffering, from the women dumped in Kempton Park to the 26 children who died after eating spaza shop food.

Foreigners take state money: The ATM’s Zungula – who was a key promoter of the #PutSouthAfricansFirst movement at its launch on 27 April 2020 (along with Herman Mashaba) and who has maintained a consistent presence in this community over the past six years – posted that R1.3-billion was spent on grants for permanent residents, refugees and asylum seekers in 2025/26. He did not respond to corrections that pointed out that this was only roughly 0.004% of the roughly R300-billion social assistance budget.

Foreigners as armed aggressors: PSAF LIVE, an anonymous pseudo-news account that has anchored the anti-foreigner community for several years now, shared footage it said showed Ethiopians and Somalis armed with guns and machetes confronting residents at a community meeting in Korsten, Gqeberha, and @joy_zelda claimed foreigners were beating delivery drivers while the media stayed silent.

Foreigners inside the police: Ngobese-Zuma claimed that “the Pakistanis are in deep in the SAPS”, and activists questioned why the SAPS trainee recruitment portal offered foreign languages.

New allies: SA First Forum and AfriForum met Kgoshi Phaahla over foreign traders’ court case against him, and Netwerk24 reported a poll in which 60% of South Africans said AfriForum and March and March could work together.

The movement’s critics pushed back. ANC campaigner Buthanani Thobela told Ngobese-Zuma to stop hiding behind immigration and enter politics openly. Liberal commentators argued that a wave of anti-halaal and anti-Muslim content had been imported: Phumzile van Damme called it a sponsored narrative from foreign governments, and Redi Tlhabi pointed to talking points borrowed from the US.

The EFF and the spies

The EFF Campaigners community fell back to 14% of posts from 8% of accounts, down from 19% last week, as the party responded to a News24 report that the State Security Agency had planted insiders to spy on the EFF – R12-million was allegedly spent to collapse the party through members of its parliamentary caucus. The EFF condemned the “weaponisation” of the SSA by the ANC and went to the Gauteng High Court for the trial record, and Julius Malema said some of the party’s own “family members in leadership” were involved.

Campaigning continued, with Malema addressing Tshela Thupa rallies in Madibeng and Nkomazi. The community benefits from notable levels of focused amplification, with one cohort of 164 accounts repeatedly reposting the EFF and @Sentletse. However, it is not possible to say from this analysis whether that is due to fan, activist or otherwise inauthentically coordinated behaviour.

Malema also picked a fight with businessman MySol, and Fikile Mbalula offered to mediate. Meanwhile, summonses against both Mbalula and Malema were put on hold pending a review by the National Director of Public Prosecutions.

MK and the RET bloc

MK party and RET activists grew to 6% of posts, up from 4%, framing the KwaZulu-Natal SANDF deployment as an attempt to intimidate MK voters. Modibe Modiba claimed that Phala Phala was linked to the late taxi boss Mswazi and Cat Matlala. The community’s most-shared post was former paid Gupta cheerleader Andile Mngxitama’s claim that Helen Zille had returned “R820-million” in Cape Town housing money to Treasury, a figure other users disputed.

Inside the GNU

The ANC’s most-shared moment came from abroad. Ramaphosa’s congratulations to Brazil’s Lula da Silva on his re-election was the most-reposted post of the week, and Lula’s reply was third, carried largely by Brazilian accounts: half of the users in the ANC Presidency community were in Brazil. Critics accused the ANC of celebrating socialism abroad while discrediting it at home.

At home, the acting police minister moved to appoint Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi to head the Hawks, and the NPA restrained R99-million in assets linked to an alleged extortion syndicate. On the campaign trail, Panyaza Lesufi’s “You demanded jobs” message was mocked for sounding like a favour, and on Facebook, Ramaphosa defended the ANC’s 32-year record in Diepkloof. ANC campaign hashtags such as #MbalulaInEasternCape, #MbalulaInKZN and #MbalulaInWesternCape were pushed in tight bursts: in the Eastern Cape, 13 accounts posted 20 messages in 10 minutes, each a different short talking point ending in the same three hashtags, which is consistent with coordinated activity.

The DA was strongest on Facebook, where Geordin Hill-Lewis was the most-engaged page. He condemned taxi violence as police closed the Delft taxi rank, the week’s most-engaged Facebook post. Zille’s campaign video urging voters to back the DA on both ballots was also among the top posts. On X, some in the Rise Mzansi and liberal community attacked Hill-Lewis under #NotMyMayor.

ActionSA no longer formed a distinct community on X, which is unusual given that Mashaba has worked so hard over the past six years to position himself as an anchor in the anti-foreigner community; only about 2% of posts mentioned the party or Mashaba. Mashaba declared “Dr Nasiphi Moya Week”, and Moya promised to sign a binding elections pledge with Tshwane residents. Podcaster Penuel “The Black Pen” Mlotshwa backed ActionSA in Johannesburg but suggested that Michael Beaumont is its real leader.

Afrikaner conservatives: A farm attack goes global

The Afrikaner conservative community (10% of posts) was dominated by the attack on North West cattle farmer Donovan Marx, who was shot, stabbed and had his ears cut off. Conscious Caracal’s post about the attack was among the most-shared of the week, and Elon Musk replied that “so many times” this had happened. Caracal later complained that English-language outlets, including Daily Maverick, had not covered the attack. On Facebook, Ian Cameron called for priority policing of farm attacks, Ernst Roets’s Lex Libertas asked Ramaphosa to condemn the attack, and AfriForum asked Cachalia “how many more farmers”.

The attack also brought international audiences back. Last week, only 6% of the conservative bloc’s users were in the US; this week, 31% of this community’s users were. Jason Bartlett, a South African and alleged scammer, who posts about his happy new life in America, tagged Donald Trump and Musk and insisted that these “are not normal crimes”. The community benefits from notable levels of focused amplification, including 72 accounts clustering their replies around Caracal and Musk. However, it is not possible to say from this analysis whether that is due to fan, activist or otherwise inauthentically coordinated behaviour.

Attacks across party lines

With days to go, the attacks sharpened:

ANC vs DA: The ANC’s Lesufi took an “old Ford Cortina” jab at Zille, and Mbalula accused the DA of labelling Cape Town residents “refugees”. The DA rejected the ANC Cape Town mayoral candidate’s claim that the ANC had built more houses.

DA vs opposition: Hill-Lewis said that while Cape Town takes illegal guns off the streets, “our opposition” (the Patriotic Alliance, the EFF and the National Coloured Congress) keeps showing them off.

ActionSA vs ANC: Beaumont said the ANC was “running scared” after an anonymous attempt to stop ActionSA contesting the elections.

AfriForum vs EFF: Kallie Kriel reminded voters that Malema had promised a school in Alexandra seven years ago.

MK vs ANC: “You demand water, electricity, food, jobs,” wrote one MK veteran; “he deploys soldiers.”

EFF-aligned commentators vs March and March: @Sentletse called the movement’s members criminals and said the government should simply arrest them.

Paid influencers

ANC election messaging ran through the same pool of influencers we have tracked selling brands. Between 23 and 27 October, about 36 accounts in our sample posted about 250 near-identical messages ending “Vote ANC”, under #VoteANC2026 and a new hashtag for each stop of Mbalula’s provincial tour. None was marked as advertising. These appear to potentially be scripted bursts (groups of accounts posting their own near-identical campaign content within about an hour of each other), which is consistent with coordinated activity. Several of the same accounts promoted Netflix’s Black Gold, Samsung and Betway in the same week, and the push’s most-shared author also promoted Honor’s new phone.

A second, non-partisan potential scripted burst on 29 October urged residents to hold every party to account under #PeopleBuildDemocracy, again from accounts in the brand pool. On the brand side, entertainment dominated: Black Gold, Spinners season 2, e.tv’s Isitha and two music singles were each pushed in tight same-day bursts, and only Samsung, FNB and Betway posts carried #ad with any regularity.

Influencer-led anti-immigrant posting more than doubled on last week, led by accounts such as Born-in-SA (@_Tee__G), who wrote that South Africans were “fed up with a president that prioritises illegal migrants”. These posts benefit from notable levels of focused amplification. However, it is not possible to say from this analysis whether that is due to fan, activist or otherwise inauthentically coordinated behaviour. Not all of the pool joined in: Sthembile (@SthembiD), a regular on Netflix and music pushes, posted “NO TO XENOPHOBIA”.

Wrapping it all up

With days to go, the anti-foreigner movement is campaigning not only against foreigners but against the state itself. The interdict and the army deployment gave Ngobese-Zuma the confrontation her movement thrives on, along with an ethnic “Zulu” framing that MK and RET voices were quick to echo in KwaZulu-Natal. The EFF is fighting on a different front, casting itself as the victim of the state’s spies, while the ANC’s best moment of the week came from Brazil. On Facebook, crime set the agenda, from Delft’s taxi violence to the torture of Donovan Marx, an attack that also pulled US audiences back into South Africa’s farm-safety debate. Almost every one of these campaigns ends in a grievance against the state, leaving the governing parties little time to change the subject before 4 November. DM