The US race for 2028 has begun - here's how it might play out

The midterm elections ended in a "blue tsunami" that swept the Democrats to control in Congress, and now political focus has shifted to the 2028 race for the White House.

A Democratic victory in 2028 is far from assured, however, as the party will need to show voters that it has policies that extend beyond hitting back at President Donald Trump.

The Republicans, meanwhile, could use the next two years to get back to basics when it comes to issues voters care about.

Revenge or real change

Now that Democrats have a congressional majority, the question is whether they will be able to put forward and enact legislation that soothes Americans' concerns.

The question at the top of voters' minds as they headed to the polls on Tuesday was the state of the economy. An AP voter poll showed that the issue was of the highest importance to 39 per cent of those surveyed. Another top issue related to the economy is the Iran war, which has driven up the cost of petrol in a country heavily dependent on cars.

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What's next for Trump after Democrats take Congress?

There is the possibility that the party will become distracted by revenge against Mr Trump, his cabinet and his family, who have been accused of corruption and mismanagement in a host of areas.

"Lawyer up," Democratic Congressman Robert Garcia, who is set to become the next chairman of the House oversight committee, said on social media as the midterm results rolled in.

While voters want some measure of accountability – the "state of democracy" also ranked highly on the list of concerns in the AP voter poll – but drawn-out impeachment proceedings against Mr Trump will not pay the electricity bill, and the revenge strategy may come to bite the Democrats unless they are careful.

How well the Democrats perform over the next two years at the state and national level could define how clear the path back to the White House will be. Speculation is already swirling about who might make a run for the Democratic ticket.

Show caption: Former US vice president Kamala Harris at a rally for Califo…

Kamala Harris, who made an unsuccessful bid against Mr Trump in 2024, is one front-runner. Her involvement in Joe Biden's administration, which continued to funnel money to Israel amid the Gaza war, caused her to lose ground with progressives, but given the Trump administration's handling of that and other issues, she may be able to make a successful comeback.

Jon Ossoff, who secured re-election to the Senate in Georgia this week, is another possibility. Prediction market platform Polymarket has him leading the pack of possible Democrat presidential choices by a long shot. He has been compared to former president Barack Obama – a progressive-centrist, a strong speaker and a youthful choice at a time when presidents seem to be getting older.

Gavin Newsom, governor of California and staunch Trump critic, is another possibility. Other names floating around include progressive New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, former transport secretary Pete Buttigieg and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.

Back to basics

The next Congress will give the Republicans time for a major rethink about the issues they have been focusing on for the past few years, as culture wars and immigration fears were not enough to get people to the ballot box. Mr Trump's star also appears to be on the wane, so the party will have to find someone else to rally around.

If those remaining in the Trump administration – after what could be a sizeable purge in the coming weeks and months – and Republicans in Congress can refocus on kitchen-table issues such as jobs, the economy and ending an unpopular war, the party could stand a chance of maintaining the White House in 2028. It just needs the right candidate.

Show caption: US President Donald Trump and his Vice President JD Vance du…

Vice President JD Vance is the favourite for the nomination, but it would be an uphill battle: only one sitting vice president in nearly 200 years has won a presidential election. Unless he distinguishes himself in his own right, the stigma attached to Mr Trump's presidency will follow him on the campaign trail, as Joe Biden's did with Ms Harris.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is another option. Mr Rubio was a senator before joining the Trump administration and made his own run for the White House in 2016. A New York Times poll from late last month showed Mr Rubio came second after Mr Vance in Republican voters' preferences for 2028 – although he faces the same possible stigma as the Vice President.

Other possibilities include Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, both of whom also ran unsuccessful bids for the Republican nomination against Mr Trump.

And of course, Mr Trump himself has playfully floated the idea of another presidential run and changing the US Constitution to do it, but after the midterms, which he told voters to treat as if he personally was on the ballot, he might not seriously pursue the idea.