Netanyahu's opponents have the numbers – now can they make a deal?

Israel's coalition talks will intensify this week as opponents of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu try to wrest the premiership from him after an inconclusive election result.

Neither Mr Netanyahu's right-wing coalition nor an opposition bloc led by former army general Gadi Eisenkot won a majority at last Tuesday's election.

The opposition could reach a majority by working with Arab politicians, who have offered to help bring down Mr Netanyahu after winning a record 19 seats. Together, the Eisenkot bloc and Arab parties would have 67 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

But any such deal would be highly controversial in Israel, especially at a sensitive time in the Middle East conflict.

Early talks

The constitutional process for forming a government will not start before Wednesday, when President Isaac Herzog receives the certified results. He will then hold consultations before inviting one candidate to form a government within 42 days.

Speaking on Sunday, Mr Herzog called on party leaders to find "creative solutions". He has previously urged them to avoid a stalemate that leads to a second election.

Informal talks have already begun among potential members of the anti-Netanyahu alliance. Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister whose alliance came third at the election, confirmed on Sunday that he would support Mr Eisenkot. That was unsurprising, even if some had speculated he could be drawn into Mr Netanyahu's camp.

Show caption: Israeli President Isaac Herzog has urged parties to avoid a …

Fraud claims won't change result

While balloting and counting were continuing, Mr Netanyahu was sowing doubts about the result by accusing Arab parties of having "stolen" the election. Arab politicians dismissed the claims as an attempt to undermine their record result.

Authorities have claimed some wrongdoing was being investigated, but said on Sunday that any such inquiries would not undermine the overall result.

The elections "were conducted properly", said Noam Sohlberg, the head of Israel's Central Elections Committee, in a joint statement with the country's Attorney General and internal security chief. "The election results reflect the will of the voter."

Mr Netanyahu's Likud party called Mr Sohlberg's comments perplexing, maintaining that a "dark cloud" hangs over the results.

Arab parties

All eyes are keeping a watch on whether the 19 members from the Arab Joint List and the Ra'am party could join a coalition or at least agree to tolerate a minority government.

Ahmad Tibi, the leader of the Ta'al or Arab Movement for Change party, told Israel's Channel 12 that "we want to help anyone who wants to bring down this awful government" but said he did not want a ministerial post.

"Without the Arab parties there won't be change," Mr Tibi said.

Some potential Eisenkot allies had ruled out relying on Arab support during the campaign and any such deal would be seen as politically risky. US ambassador Mike Huckabee has said it would be "troubling" to include any politicians who had not condemned the October 7 attacks on Israel in 2023.

Show caption: Yousef Jabareen, second from left, leader of the Arab Joint …

Netanyahu's next move

Mr Netanyahu remains in office for now. With Americans voting in midterm polls on Tuesday, there are widespread fears that the US and Israel could resume strikes on Iran when both countries' elections are over.

It has been speculated that such a move could benefit Mr Netanyahu, perhaps leading to a unity government in which he stays in power. Some opposition figures have suggested it would be improper for him to embark on major military action in his caretaker role.

Yair Golan, the leader of the centre-left Democrats, said on Sunday that Mr Netanyahu lacks the "moral legitimacy" to run a new campaign against Iran.

"Israel's security must not be allowed to become a tool in Netanyahu's political survival struggle. Therefore, establishing an alternative government as soon as possible is critical," he said.