U.S. midterms show need for two-track diplomacy
With Democrats taking Congress, Seoul must find ways to engage with both the White House and Capitol Hill to protect trade and security interests.

U.S. voters have checked U.S. President Donald Trump's dominance. In Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections, Democrats regained control of the Senate and won the House of Representatives, securing majorities in both chambers. They even captured Senate seats in Republican strongholds including Texas, Kansas and South Carolina, prompting descriptions of a "blue wave."

The elections, covering 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, all 435 House seats and 36 governorships, served as a referendum on the Trump administration and a barometer for the United States' next presidential election just two years hence. Congressional control, particularly of the House, will influence U.S. foreign policy, national security and international economic relations, creating significant implications for South Korea.

The results reflected public frustration over rising oil prices, inflation and living costs stemming from the prolonged Iran war. Allegations of favoritism toward Trump's family businesses and his unilateral governing style, which relied on hard-core supporters while disregarding Congress, also fueled opposition. Voters delivered a verdict against an administration accused of neglecting livelihoods and democratic accountability.

Yet U.S. policy will not change overnight. Democratic control of Congress will strengthen oversight of presidential appointments and legislation, but Trump still retains substantial powers, including vetoes and executive orders. He also enjoys considerable discretion over trade and security policy. His America First policies and protectionism are unlikely to disappear merely because congressional control has changed.

South Korea must therefore pursue two-track diplomacy, implementing trade and security agreements with the Trump administration while strengthening cooperation with the Democrat-controlled Congress. Seoul has concentrated heavily on the White House while neglecting congressional engagement. It should expand contacts with Democratic leaders, foreign affairs and defense committees and Republicans who value alliances.

Trump may also seek diplomatic breakthroughs to overcome domestic political difficulties under divided government. Seoul must prepare for another possible U.S.-North Korea summit. Particular concerns include a limited nuclear agreement that restricts intercontinental ballistic missiles threatening the U.S. mainland while leaving North Korea's broader nuclear arsenal intact and excluding South Korea from negotiations.

Suspension of joint military exercises or reductions in U.S. forces stationed in South Korea are additional risks. Seoul must engage Congress to safeguard its security interests and build bipartisan support for the alliance.

Cooperation with regional allies, including Japan and Australia, must also deepen. Seoul should coordinate closely with Washington on intelligence sharing, the transfer of wartime operational control and nuclear-powered submarines to ensure progress on these critical issues.

Ultimately, protecting South Korea's security and national interests requires balanced diplomacy involving the White House, Congress and regional allies alike.
(END)

Source: Yonhap News · Kang Jae-eun

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