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When Republicans started redrawing congressional maps in the summer of 2025, they hoped to gain enough seats to give the party a chance to hold the House in this year’s midterm elections.
That gambit did not come close to working. The Democrats won so overwhelmingly that they easily overcame the G.O.P.’s newly drawn lines. In many cases, Democrats wound up winning the seats that the Republicans targeted. Sometimes, Democrats even gained seats in the very states where Republicans redrew the maps to their advantage.
But do Democratic gains mean the Republican effort backfired? Did Republicans lose more seats in 2026 than they would have had they left the maps alone?
Our preliminary estimate is no, the Republican effort didn’t backfire. In fact, Republicans still gained anywhere from four to seven seats as a result of the new maps, even if they didn’t pay off as Republicans hoped.
There is one state where the Republican effort seems to have backfired, if only barely: North Carolina. Elsewhere, Republicans came out ahead or the new maps didn’t make a difference either way.
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Source: The New York Times · Nate Cohn, Eve Washington
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