Analysts propose cleaner power development plan

Energy and climate specialists have proposed an alternative version of Thailand's power development plan (PDP) dubbed the "Resilient PDP", aimed at ensuring a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy without relying heavily on natural gas as a bridging fuel.

The proposal was developed by Chalie Charoenlarpnopparut, a scholar at the Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, in collaboration with SDG Move, a research centre at Thammasat University that supports the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and Agora Energiewende, a non-profit think tank that promotes climate neutrality strategies in Germany, Europe and worldwide.

Under the Resilient PDP, Thailand would install up to 60 gigawatts of rooftop solar capacity, almost three times the 24.3GW target set out in the government's latest PDP. The increased solar deployment would significantly reduce the country's dependence on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to Mr Chalie.

The new government PDP, which covers 2026-2050 and is expected to take effect this month, has been praised for increasing the share of renewable energy.

However, he said the plan still contains several weaknesses that could undermine Thailand's climate goals. Although the PDP sets a target of 24.3GW of solar power generation, the actual output would be constrained by the intermittent nature of solar energy and weather-dependent operating hours, said Mr Chalie.

As a result, gas-fired electricity generation would remain largely unchanged until 2050 despite the higher renewable energy targets.

He also expressed concern over the plan's continued reliance on fossil fuels during the transition period. While coal-fired generation is set to be phased out with no new coal plants planned, the PDP proposes the construction of 9,100 megawatts of new combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants between 2026 and 2037.

CCGT technology generates electricity using natural gas while capturing waste heat from the primary turbine to power a secondary steam turbine, improving efficiency. Yet gas-fired power plants remain a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions, noted Mr Chalie.

He warned such heavy dependence on fossil fuels could jeopardise Thailand's ability to meet its near-term climate commitments under the 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are countries' official climate action plans submitted under the global climate framework.

Under Thailand's NDC 3.0, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced to 152 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2035, down from a baseline level of 379 million tonnes recorded in 2019.

Mr Chalie said the country's growing reliance on imported LNG also raises concerns over electricity costs, as fuel prices remain vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts and global market volatility.

He further criticised the PDP's dependence on what he described as expensive or unproven technologies, such as an ambitious carbon capture and storage target of 19 million tonnes a year, which he estimated could increase electricity tariffs by around 1.20 baht per unit, as well as early-stage investments in small modular nuclear reactors, which could produce power at costs of up to 13 baht per unit.

"These are unrealistic technologies at this stage," said Mr Chalie.

Meanwhile, the Resilient PDP is designed to strengthen Thailand's economic competitiveness while honouring its international climate commitments, aligning with the country's NDC 3.0 targets and its long-term ambition to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, he noted. The alternative plan calls for an accelerated expansion of renewable energy, the cancellation of all new natural gas-fired power plants, and large-scale deployment of advanced battery energy storage systems, including six-hour and eight-hour storage technologies, to ensure a reliable supply.