3 things to watch on election night (and beyond)

Not a drill, nor a dream, we have at last arrived at Election Day.

Months of work for campaigns, voters and our newsroom will culminate tonight. We'll be on air with results into the wee hours, where I have the job of tracking the races on our interactive "super screen."

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As you prepare your approach – watching minute-by-minute, or dipping in and out of results – here is a start to the conversation, with a short list of things I will be watching on election night.

The early indicators: Kentucky and Florida

Watch the segment in the player above.

The midterm map has expanded and expanded again. At the moment, we are tracking the 89 House races and 15 Senate races rated by The Cook Political Report as somewhat or intensely competitive.

Where to look first? For this, I don't just look at which races are key, but which states will have the most results on the early side.

Both parties will watch the House race in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District as an important indicator. Polls there close at 6 pm EST.

President Donald Trump won this Lexington district by 15 points in 2024, according to data posted by Cook. But in just the past two weeks, Cook moved its rating to "toss-up." An early win here will open the idea that Democrats can win in some deeply red territory.

I will also watch Florida's races closely. The latest voting there ends at 8 p.m. EST and the state counts ballots efficiently, reaching 90 percent of ballots counted by 8:07 pm EST in 2024, according to the Associated Press. Sunshine State Republicans redistricted in an attempt to flip a few Democratic seats. These early results will tell us if that effort worked — or if Republicans endangered any of their own seats in the process.

On the Senate side, I will watch the Maine results, but I do not see it as an early indicator. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is in a race that is uniquely about her ability to outrun the head of her party. Instead, I am most eager to see early returns from South Carolina and Ohio, places where Republicans are defending in states Trump won twice.

The turnout numbers

Watch the segment in the player above.

There is a temptation to try to be clever in guides like this.

Let's instead be correct: The key factor in this election will be turnout, and the ability of each party and candidate to get out their voters.

This is particularly true for Republicans. I don't use polls as data points, but they can indicate direction. Independent and swing voters have soured on Trump and Republicans. Speaking with candidates on the trail, including Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, R-Pa., they told me their key to survival is making sure they get as many of Trump's 2024 votes as he did.

I'll be closely watching turnout in Republican red areas in key states.

And in Michigan, I'll watch a key Democratic base: How strongly do Black voters turn out? This is especially important in the Great Lakes State. Both Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican opponent Mike Rogers spent Sunday at Black churches. That is not a coincidence.

Possible litigation

Finally, our team is keeping a close eye on potential lawsuits, including from the Department of Justice, that pop up Tuesday or in coming days.

Our Liz Landers has focused on election security and the flurry of litigation already across the country.

But from Alaska to Pennsylvania, courts are already hearing and ruling on election-related lawsuits. Democrats have reportedly recruited thousands of lawyers to monitor polls. And Republicans also have attorneys at the ready.

If the election is close, the action in court will be critical. At this juncture, there is likely to be legal action, regardless of whether the election is close.

Follow live results across the country throughout the evening on our website.

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