2026 Elections: Polls offer mixed picture of Taichung race

Five opinion polls released since early October have shown contrasting levels of support for Taichung mayoral candidates Ho Hsin-chun (何 欣純) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Johnny Chiang (江啟臣) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), with four putting Chiang ahead and the latest showing Ho in the lead.

The most recent survey, released yesterday by the Taipei Trust in Democracy Association and conducted by polling expert Tai Li-an (戴立安), showed Ho with 41.1 percent support, compared with Chiang’s 30.4 percent, a lead of 10.7 percentage points. It is the first poll during the election campaign to put Ho ahead of Chiang.

In contrast, a poll commissioned by the KMT caucus of Taichung City Council and conducted by Fo Guang University’s Center for Public Opinion Research, released Monday, showed Chiang leading Ho by 38.3 percent to 28.1 percent, a margin of 10.2 percentage points.

Pollster Tai Li-an presents the results of a poll on the Taichung mayoral race at a news conference in Taipei.

Photo: Lin Cheng-kun, Taipei Times

An earlier survey commissioned by the same KMT caucus and conducted by Shih Hsin University, released Oct. 17, also put Chiang ahead by 39.8 percent to 28.7 percent.

Two earlier polls, one released by Era TV’s polling center on Oct. 6 and another commissioned by the DPP-backed “Trust Taiwan” group in Taichung, released Oct. 12, also showed Chiang ahead of Ho by 6 percentage points and 1.9 points, respectively.

The contrasting findings come ahead of the Nov. 28 local elections, highlighting differences among recent surveys of voter preferences.

Responding to yesterday’s poll, Ho said the results reflected a growing public demand for change.

She attributed the sentiment to what she said was stalled municipal development and unresolved problems affecting residents’ daily lives.

Ho said she would continue to visit all 29 administrative districts in Taichung, presenting her policy proposals and seeking support from voters.

Asked whether the popularity of DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋) had helped boost her campaign, Ho said Shen’s previous visit to Taichung had generated enthusiasm among local supporters.

She added that her campaign was discussing another possible visit by Shen, although no date had been confirmed.

Meanwhile, Chiang’s campaign office said in a written statement that it respected the findings of various opinion polls and would take them into consideration.

However, it stressed that the most accurate measure of public opinion would be the votes cast on election day.

The office said Chiang would continue listening to residents, visiting communities across Taichung and presenting concrete, achievable policy proposals to secure broader public support.