US midterms: Democrats’ win could complicate Trump’s China diplomacy, but broader Asia policy unlikely to shift

SINGAPORE: Democrats seized control of both chambers of Congress in the United States midterm elections on Tuesday (Nov 3) - dealing a major blow to President Donald Trump and raising questions about what the political shake-up in Washington could mean for Asia.

Even as the extent of any policy shifts remains uncertain, the new balance of power could complicate Trump’s ability to advance his agenda over the next two years, with potential implications for US-China relations, trade and tariffs, and Washington's security commitments in the Indo-Pacific, say experts.

For Asian economies already grappling with trade uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions, the key question is where the election results could bring meaningful change - and where US policy is likely to stay the course.

TRADE AND TARIFFS: WHAT CHANGES FOR ASIAN ECONOMIES?

Stephen Olson, visiting senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singapore-based research centre, warned that with the electoral pressure of the midterms behind him, Trump could become less constrained in pursuing an aggressive trade policy, including potentially imposing further tariffs on China and other Asian economies.

“Section 301 tariffs on excess capacity could be forthcoming shortly and new trade actions against key partners could also be opened. That obviously would be bad news, especially in the Indo-Pacific,” Olson said, referring to the provision of US trade law that allows Washington to investigate and take action against foreign countries it believes are engaging in unfair trade practices.

At the same time, the Democrats’ electoral gains could embolden lawmakers from both parties to challenge the president's trade agenda, potentially opening the door to greater congressional scrutiny, he said.

Asian countries, particularly US allies such as South Korea and Japan, will be “hoping that Democrats in Congress will be ⁠able to moderate the worst impacts of Trump’s trade policies”, according to Reuters columnist Clyde Russell. 

In a commentary published on Wednesday, Russell noted that these countries would welcome a rollback of tariffs and greater consistency in Washington's treatment of its allies.

But not all aspects of Trump's economic agenda are likely to face resistance, Russell said - pointing to Washington’s efforts to develop critical mineral supply chains outside China, including investments in rare earths, tungsten and lithium, as an area where bipartisan support could ensure continuity.

The bigger question is whether Democrats can meaningfully constrain Trump's tariff policies, given the president's considerable executive authority over trade.

Olson said that while Trump would continue to wield broad powers, Congress could push for more exemptions from tariffs on products that directly affect American consumers.

Lawmakers could also seek to reclaim some of the authority over trade policy that Congress has ceded to the executive branch.

“Depending on how badly the Republicans get wiped out, and how badly Trump's aura of political potency gets dented, Congress, including pro-free trade Republicans who have been intimidated into standing down, might be inclined to reassert some degree of Congressional authority on trade,” Olson said.

US-CHINA RIVALRY: CONTINUITY OR CHANGE?

Analysts said the new balance of power in Congress could complicate Trump's efforts to stabilise ties with Beijing, particularly if Democrats push for tougher measures against China.

Adrian Ang, research fellow and coordinator of the United States Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), a Singapore-based think-tank, said a Democratic-controlled Congress could take a “more hawkish (stance towards) China" than Trump himself.

This could translate into pressure for tougher measures on trade and technology restrictions, as well as renewed scrutiny of a delayed US$14 billion US arms package for Taiwan, Ang added.

China claims Taiwan as its territory and has increased its military presence around the island in recent years. The US maintains close unofficial ties with Taiwan and is its main arms supplier.

“All of those, but especially the last item, will place stress on the new US-China constructive strategic stability based on respect, fairness, and reciprocity agreed to by both presidents, Trump and Xi,” Ang said.

“It will depend on how much pressure Congress can bring to bear on the president and the extent to which the president views his stabilisation of the bilateral relationship as his legacy.”
 

Chinese policy researcher Li Yaqi said Democrats could raise the political cost of Trump's dealings with Beijing, even if they have limited power to fundamentally change his China policy.

Li pointed to Congress' powers to launch investigations, summon administration officials and influence government spending as potential tools to challenge White House decisions.

Democratic lawmakers could also seek to attach conditions to defence spending legislation to prevent the administration from easing certain sanctions on China, he said. 

Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at RSIS, does not expect significant changes to Washington's approach to Taiwan, noting that support for the island has remained consistently strong across both parties.

At the same time, he similarly noted that Democratic lawmakers' emphasis on human rights could put them at odds with Beijing.

“The Democratic Party's ideological support for universal human rights often puts its senators and representatives at odds with China,” Thompson noted.

However, he stressed that the White House would continue to wield the greatest influence over US-China relations, regardless of which party controls Congress.

“While Congress has the power to appropriate, the executive branch is the lead on foreign policy and diplomatic engagement,” he said.

On its part, China has signalled it is keen to maintain stable relations with Washington.

Beijing said it was “willing to continue working” with the US to implement agreements reached between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping - while “properly managing differences and expanding cooperation”.

“The midterm elections are an internal affair of the United States,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a regular press briefing on Wednesday - adding that Beijing remained committed to building a “constructive, strategically stable China-US relationship” based on mutual respect, fairness and reciprocity.

Ang said that the current stability in US-China relations is “the result of a stalemate and mutual vulnerabilities” between the two powers.

Much therefore depends on Trump's willingness to adopt a tougher stance towards China, knowing that Beijing will likely retaliate, he said.

Trump’s upcoming meetings in Asia could offer an early indication of his approach, Ang added.

The president is expected to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Manila next week before meeting Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen.

REGIONAL SECURITY OUTLOOK

Analysts have cautioned against expecting a fundamental change in American foreign policy, including its defence commitments and strategic engagement in the region, simply because Democrats now control Congress.

“The midterm results look dramatic from a US domestic standpoint but for ASEAN, they may moderate but not fundamentally change US policy on trade, use of force, and diplomacy,” Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore (NUS), told CNA.

Unlike a presidential election, the midterms do not change who occupies the White House, with Trump retaining broad powers over foreign policy, military action and tariffs, Chong noted.

Congress could seek to curb some of the president's decisions, but would generally be unable to fundamentally alter his approach, he added.

More substantial intervention would likely require exceptional circumstances, such as impeachment or an issue that commands overwhelming congressional support, both of which are rare.

RSIS’ Ang similarly noted that the president enjoys considerably more freedom in foreign and defence policy than in domestic affairs.

While Congress can exercise oversight and control government spending, these powers may not be sufficient to stop a president determined to pursue a particular foreign policy course, he said.

Ang pointed to the Trump administration's actions during the Iran war in June, when it was prepared to sidestep congressional efforts to invoke the War Powers Act - which seeks to limit the president’s ability to engage US forces in armed conflict without congressional approval.

Without two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress, the threshold needed to override a presidential veto, Democrats would struggle to constrain Trump, particularly if Republican lawmakers remained largely united behind him, he added. 

Additional reporting by Lee Gim Siong

Source: CNA/ht/ao(ws)