Banks Peninsula: Christchurch's biggest electorate is a swing seat

It's all on in Christchurch's biggest electorate, the swing seat of Banks Peninsula.

Covering a vast and diverse area, the peninsula switched from red to blue for the first time in more than 20 years at the last election, by a slim margin.

The electorate covers tourist hotspots like Akaroa, the bohemian enclave of Lyttelton, the industrial city-fringe suburb of Woolston and Halswell's swiftly growing subdivisions, as well as some of the city's most exclusive neighbourhoods, such as the coastal communities of Sumner and Redcliffs and hilltop Cashmere.

It's also one of the country's most engaged electorates - boasting the highest percentage of eligible enrolled voters, and at the last election, the highest voter turn-out.

When National's Vanessa Weenink beat Labour's Tracey McLellan in 2023 by just under 400 votes, it was the first time the electorate had swung blue in 24 years.

Weenink and McLellan are back to contest the seat again, alongside four other candidates - the Green Party's Craig Pauling, Alliance candidate Kyle Turnbull, ACT's Zachary Wellman and Amy Turner of the New Conservatives.

The electorate skewed older than the national median - 53 years for Banks Peninsula compared to 38 years nationwide, had a high percentage of home ownership (83 percent to the national rate of 66 percent) and had an enrolment rate of 98 percent compared to 91 percent nationally.

Eighty-four percent of Banks Peninsula's enrolled voters turned to vote in the last election compared to 78 percent nationwide.

Jemma Hooykass recently returned to New Zealand from 20 years overseas and was taken aback at how much election chatter there was.

"I feel like it's the conversation everywhere, and in places I wouldn't expect like the gym, drop-offs with the kids, dinner parties, even just now I'm here on a play centre visit and we were just having our morning hui and everyone was talking about it and who they're voting for."

She had researched parties' policy positions and took her civic duty seriously.

"I wouldn't want to just show up and tick a box without knowing what I'm doing.

"It's special being able to vote, and I've lived in many countries where you can't, or you can't take that for granted."

Halswell voters were united on the need for better infrastructure in the city's largest and fastest-growing suburb.

Peter moved down from the North Island three years ago.

"Infrastructure is going to be a problem. We've got all these houses coming in over here. Yeah, well, it's not just here. I mean, it's all over Canterbury and yeah, probably the countrywide, isn't it?"

He's not convinced the electorate was more engaged than any other, and was most concerned about minor parties delaying the formation of a new government.

He wanted to see a tweak on the current arrangements rather than a wholesale change

"Well, a slight change, not a major change. I mean, the Labour Party's certainly not done us any favours in the last term they had.

"Some of the minor parties would be good - not too much change, but they've certainly got some good ideas."

Halswell resident Neil said he was a little nervous about the outcome.

"I'm feeling ... a little bit apprehensive about what coalition party might be scraped together, either National and their cohorts or Labour and their cohorts."

Education and health were the key issues from his perspective.

"Being a teacher and a wife who's a nurse, that's what we're keeping a close eye on, and obviously the cost of living which affects everybody."

He planned to hit the golf course on election day, and "not give it a second thought until night time".

Joseph Quested had lived in the electorate for more than 15 years, and loved the sense of community he'd found in Lyttelton, which he said leant strongly to the left.

"There's one National Party sign up in Lyttelton, just on the corner of the street down there, and it's been vandalised every single night since the moment that it got put up."

The environment, Palestine and the cost of living were among the most important issues for young people, he said.

He felt polling often got the outcome wrong, and was basing his predictions more on vibes.

"I think that the person who is going to win an election is ultimately going to be the person who has the most swag, the most ris [charisma].

"Obviously, if it's going to come down to like Labour or National, I definitely want Labour to win, but I think Chris Hipkins is a deeply swagless individual, you know, I don't think he has much charisma.

"I would be voting for the Green Party either way, but I wish the Labour Party would put up somebody with a little bit more juice in the tank."

Janine Clarke said the strong and engaged community in Diamond Harbour was one of the things that attracted her to the area.

People were definitely interested in the election, with a well attended meet-the-candidates evening and a solid showing by the candidates at various events.

"I think a lot of people are looking for something that isn't sort of same old, same old, bouncing back and forth."

Many Diamond Harbour residents had an interest in conservation and the environment, she said.

"We live in a beautiful place, we want to keep it beautiful."

She could sense some cyncism at the process seeping in, but that made voting more important than ever, Clarke said.

"I guess sometimes that people get a bit disengaged when it becomes like that and that's actually the time we need to get engaged because if we just do the same thing we get the same results."

Clarke said she planned to take a broader view of her vote.

"I'm personally probably not as affected by cost of living issues, but I know there are a lot of people that are, and it's not just about me.

"It's about making New Zealand a better place for everybody. And that way, if everybody's kind of at least a bit happier, then we've done a good job."

Peter Langlands lived in Woolston, and was a frequent visitor to his favourite Lyttelton cafe.

He said his Green Party vote was "pretty hardwired", with conservation and the health system among his chief concerns.

He was against commitments from some parties to cut taxes.

"It's a real false economy in the long term. When people have got a good health system, their well-being is better, their productivity is better, and ultimately we just have a far better system moving forward."

Like much of the electorate, he'd be watching closely on Saturday.

"It will be certainly one to sit down on the couch with a box of popcorn, this one."