Advocacy group warns proposed US Census changes could deepen inequalities in Pacific territories

Proposed changes to the United States Census could worsen longstanding data inequalities in Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), and American Samoa, raising concerns about access to federal resources, disaster recovery funding, and political representation.

The non-profit organisation Right to Democracy has urged the US Census Bureau to withdraw the proposals, warning they could further marginalise communities in American territories that already face significant gaps in federal data collection.

The proposed regulations, announced on 10 September, would remove questions about race and ethnicity from the decennial census, introduce new residency criteria based partly on tax records, and exclude certain non-citizen residents from population counts used to determine congressional representation.

Right to Democracy co-director Adi Martínez-Román said the proposals failed to address their potential impact on the territories.

"These sweeping rule changes don't even mention the US territories or explain how they will impact people that live here," Martínez-Román said.

"Our jurisdictions already face data challenges related to Census counting, and these changes create even more dangerous uncertainty that will lead to the further invisibilization of our communities."

The organisation said the proposed removal of racial and ethnic questions would be particularly damaging to Guam, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the US Virgin Islands because they are excluded from the American Community Survey, which provides more detailed demographic information between censuses.

Although those questions would remain in the survey, territorial communities would not benefit from that continued data collection.

The group also raised concerns about proposed residency rules that would rely partly on federal tax records.

Many residents of US territories file income tax returns with their local governments rather than the Internal Revenue Service, and the proposed rules do not explain how those records would be treated.

The proposed 3 January to 1 April reference period also raises questions about how the Census Bureau would account for residents temporarily displaced by natural disasters or those moving between the territories and the US mainland.

Another concern involves US nationals from American Samoa living in the states, whose status the organisation said should be explicitly addressed to avoid confusion over citizenship and immigration classifications.

Closing data gaps

Right to Democracy co-director Neil Weare said the federal government should instead be addressing existing shortcomings in census coverage.

"Rather than taking steps to further exclude people from US territories, the Census should be taking steps to close the data gaps that have long harmed our communities," Weare said.

"Federal rules that overlook these communities can deepen inequities that already exist. People in the territories deserve accurate data that reflect their lives and needs."

CHamoru legal scholar Marlee Sonico, a member of the organisation's Cross-Territorial Coalition, said the consequences could extend beyond population statistics.

"Public services, disaster recovery, and community investment all rely on accurate census data," Sonico said.

She warned that losing detailed demographic information would make it harder to identify racial disparities, enforce civil rights protections, and demonstrate unmet community needs.

Sonico said the territories' exclusion from congressional apportionment did not diminish their need for accurate census information.

'Data equity is fundamental'

Public health researcher Lianeris Estremera Rodriguez, another coalition member, said changes to the 2030 census could further undermine the political visibility of territorial communities.

"Structural and political erasure begins with data erasure. Data equity is a fundamental civil right," she said.

Right to Democracy submitted its objections ahead of the 2 November public comment deadline and called on the Census Bureau to work directly with territorial communities before implementing any changes.

The organisation said accurate population and demographic data remain essential to ensuring Pacific territories receive appropriate federal support and that their communities are adequately represented in government decision-making.