The Irish Times view on the US midterms: a bleak vista for Trump

Tuesday’s US midterm elections may be a turning point for the US and a moment that puts a brake on the reckless, vindictive and corrupt misrule of Donald Trump. It will be a chance to safeguard the country’s democracy and begin the process of repairing the damage that has been done to its institutions.

Midterm voters traditionally turn against incumbent presidents, a trend that Trump has inadvertently encouraged by insisting they should imagine his name is on the ballot.

Yet, despite hitting his lowest-ever approval ratings, Trump nevertheless retains his sense of invulnerability. His confidence has been bolstered by the gerrymandering of electoral districts to ensure Republican victories. His justice department has made numerous attempts to limit ballot access. And Republicans have broken spending records, with Elon Musk alone pouring $276 million to political funding groups since July.

At stake are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, 36 governorships and thousands of local positions. Some 140 local state referendums are also being contested, including the contentious California Proposition 40 proposing a one-off wealth tax of 5 per cent on the state’s billionaires.

Democrats should win the House comfortably. They must gain four seats in the Senate to win a majority that would restore oversight over Trump’s appointments, most importantly to the courts. A submissive Republican Congress has allowed its own authority and prerogatives to wither. Meanwhile, the president rules by executive fiat, more king than partner in the constitutionally mandated system of checks and balances.

Analysis suggests many contests across the country are competitive, including in traditionally Trump-voting Republican states such as Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas. Likely voters in the latest New York Times/Siena national poll preferred Democrats over Republicans by 11 percentage points in their congressional districts.

Other polls find corruption topping the list of voter concerns for the first time. That is the same issue that, more than autocratic rule, has recently felled Trump’s fellow nationalist demagogues Viktor Orbán, Flávio Bolsonaro and Aleksandar Vucic. Some 69 per cent of registered voters told the Financial Times they were very or somewhat concerned about “corruption, self-dealing or conflicts of interest” in the administration. That is hardly surprising. Trump has personally earned more than $2.2billion since his return to the White House.

The political vista is bleak for the president, with a large majority blaming him for the cost of living and the war with Iran. All the indications are that Trump will go to bed on Tuesday night a lame duck, with both parties turning immediately to the question of who his successor will be.

How we’re covering the US midterms

Follow Irish Times Washington Correspondent Keith Duggan and video journalist Chris Maddaloni in the final week of the campaign as they report from key battlegrounds and gauge the mood of voters across the US.

More US midterm election coverage here.