Minister’s refusal to answer questions on house prices reveals confused state of housing policy

A remarkable interview on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland programme recently with Minister for Housing James Browne revealed the confused state of housing policy and those in charge of it.

During the interview the Minister was asked four times by presenter Gavin Jennings whether house prices would come down or whether he wanted them to come down. He refused to answer, instead saying that people shouldn’t get “hung up on a little thing about whether house prices increase or decrease”. Central Statistics Office data show house prices nationally “have increased by 182 per cent” since 2013.

For young people working hard and saving harder to buy a house, many while still having to live with their parents, house price inflation is quite a big thing, forcing them ever closer to considering Perth over Portlaoise as a place to live.

Rather than seeing prices coming down, Browne said he believed in “affordability”. In housing, affordability generally comes in three ways: more subsidies for developers to encourage them to increase output; more grants for purchasers to help them afford what is for sale; or higher wages.

The first two options come at considerable expense to the taxpayer. For example, more than €1.6 billion of taxpayers’ money has been spent on Help to Buy since its inception; it hasn’t made housing any cheaper. Median house prices (€396,000) are about eight times median full-time employee earnings (€48,900), or “severely unaffordable” according to international metrics.

The third option of higher wages comes at the expense of employers. However, the more money that potential purchasers have, the more they can borrow to buy a new home or to outbid each other on second-hand homes, thereby driving the price of housing higher. Affordability then remains an unresolved issue.

Research by the Bank of England shows that a 1 per cent rise in incomes leads to a 2 per cent rise in house prices. This may not sound like much, but a mere 1 per cent rise in incomes could raise the median price of a new home in Ireland from €435,000 to €443,700 – an increase of €8,700 (or €14,500 in repayments over 30 years). An average 1 per cent income rise would also bring the median price of a second-hand home nationally from €370,000 to €377,400, add an extra €10,000 to a similar home in Dublin, and nearly €14,000 in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, the most expensive area in the country.

From June 2025 to June 2026 wages grew at a rate of 3.9 per cent, which could potentially add €35,000 to the price of a new home. Mortgage borrowing limits and rising interest rates are now helping to moderate the impact of rising incomes.

The reality is that housing policy in its existing configuration depends on increasing house prices, expecting that if prices fall then housebuilders may not build. The same principle applies to rents, which is why legislation was changed in March this year to allow rents to rise between tenancies to attract investor landlords. Rents nationally are up 110 per cent since 2014.

Browne was on the air to discuss his decision to restrict local authorities’ and Approved Housing Bodies’ (AHBs) ability to purchase “turnkeys” from the market to use as social housing, wanting them to focus more on building housing themselves, allowing for more certainty on timelines, costs and quality. This is a good idea.

[ Turnkey homes will no longer be bought by local authorities for social housingOpens in new window ]

Last year 44 per cent of local authorities’ new social houses were purchased turnkeys; for AHBs it was 90 per cent. Combined, two-thirds of all new local authority and AHB housing came from the market in 2025. This State is arguably propping up developers with planning permission for apartments, but with no private buyers for them.

Purchasing social housing from the market is more expensive than building it directly as there is a profit margin built in, which is presumably part of the reason it has been stopped. Deals done with those supplying the housing are less than transparent and may potentially circumvent EU procurement rules. There is also the public perception that the State is buying up new homes from under the noses of first-time buyers.

However, local authorities have been given only until December 2027 to wind down this practice. Given negotiations are already under way for social housing to be delivered in 2028 and beyond, this will likely result in a fall in social housing output, especially given the lack of extra resources being allocated to local authorities to fill the considerable void left by turnkeys.

When asked about housing output targets for this year, Browne said he didn’t “believe in targets”. Asked about expectations for housing completions this year, he said he didn’t “have a forecast for this year. I don’t believe in forecasts”.

Small charities, SMEs, NGOs and large corporations all use forecasts to manage risk and forward plan, to allocate resources and money effectively and to try to make better decisions with ensuing better outcomes. It is more than a little concerning that the Government department responsible for policy that determines the number of houses built each year does not believe in targets or forecasts to track their progress.

[ Concern State’s largest landlord’s policy on ‘tenant swapping’ could force people from homesOpens in new window ]

What is becoming increasingly evident through initiatives and interviews is the absence of any sort of coherent plan for housing. Policy responses are multiple, reactive and muddled. Housing has become more expensive rather than less. There have been more than 60 changes in housing and related policy since 2009 as well as 46 housing tax measures since 2013, and more than 20 changes since 2020 alone. This does not suggest stability or coherence.

The housing crisis is one of vision. There’s no housing equivalent of the Beveridge Report of the 1940s that established the NHS in the UK; there’s no TK Whittaker Grey Book of the 1950s that moved Ireland towards free trade and FDI. The 2024 report of the Housing Commission – established to make recommendations to shape long-term policy – was effectively burnt after reading. The results are evident in increasing house prices, rents and record numbers of homeless households and children.

Perhaps the toughest question presenter Jennings could ask a housing minister is to describe their understanding of what a functioning housing system actually looks like.