Micheál Martin’s rare hesitation about his future revives rumour mill in Fianna Fáil

It was less than two minutes of radio, broadcast from the Convention Centre Dublin, where Micheál Martin was hosting the European Political Community. But it was enough to set Fianna Fáil tongues wagging across the Liffey in Leinster House.

At the end of a lengthy interview on Morning Ireland, Martin was asked the usual question about his future – would he be leading the party into the next general election. “I’ll be leading Fianna Fáil ... in the coming years and so on,” he said. Broadcaster Sarah McInerney pressed him. “It’s a good few years yet ... yeah, that’s my intention.”

It wasn’t so much what he said, but how he said it: slightly more hesitant, slightly more couched, than his usual brisk dismissal of the matter. One Fianna Fáil TD describes doing a double take “when I heard our dear leader stumbling on whether he would be our dear leader in a few years”.

The Leinster House bubble loves nothing more than poring over a nuance. Throughout the day, Fianna Fáilers were parsing whether it was a subtle and meaningful shift, or nothing at all. “He was unusually unsure on it,” said one. “His hesitancy has been picked up widely.”

Another declared Martin to be sure-footed throughout the interview but when asked about his leadership he “seemed to be less sure and for the first time his language seemed to have a subtle shift”.

It’s not a universally held view. Some TDs argue too much is being read into it; or that he didn’t want to goad his internal critics by indicating he is untouchable; or that it betrayed something subconscious about his plans for the future (there is never a lack of amateur psychoanalysis of senior politicians, and the Taoiseach is no different). Others just think he was distracted, focused on the high politics of the event and the dinner to follow in the National Gallery. “Dining under the picture of Strongbow and Aoife with international leaders, you’re not going to be too worried about what [backbench rebels] John McGuinness and Willie O’Dea think,” mused one.

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Almost all – even critics – say he has performed well during Ireland’s European Union presidency, peaking this week. It is no doubt a high and secure vantage point, with debates about the future stowed away for the duration of the presidency. But they are waiting, nonetheless.

One internal critic says there is a “strong expectation” he will stand down early in the new year. This is echoed by another who says there is a “growing school of thought that we need to plan for the next leader”.

Ever was it thus – Martin has had internal enemies for years. None has made a move, much less potential rivals. If he is planning to hang around, one of those two things has to happen to stop it. Which is why, perhaps, his language is so closely studied to see if he, rather than his critics, is going to change something.

One ally, who sees no evidence of him being on the wind down nor of a head of steam against him, nonetheless agrees that his language around “a number of years” was more nuanced than before, saying if that is heard again and again, it could be a meaningful difference – but it would have to be a pattern of hesitancy or qualification to be considered a signal.

For the time being, one backbencher likens things to a stage with actors who are yet to commence playing – but that could turn on a sixpence. “It’s just there and, if something happens, the dynamics change really fast.”