Could a Melania Trump-brokered truce for Oleshky help end the Russia-Ukraine war?

Kyiv and Moscow say their militaries began observing a US-backed ceasefire on Tuesday morning in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky in southeastern Ukraine.

Under an agreement brokered by US first lady Melania Trump, the truce is supposed to lead to aid reaching Oleshky and residents being evacuated from Thursday.

What is the background to the Oleshky crisis?

The town on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river was occupied by Russian forces at the start of their full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

It sits across the water from Kherson city, the Kyiv-held capital of the region of the same name. When Ukrainian forces liberated the western part of Kherson region in autumn 2022, the river became the front line. About 24,000 people lived in Oleshky before the war, but less than 2,000 – including a few dozen children – are thought to be there now.

There is no power, running water nor heat supply to Oleshky, and food and medicine have been extremely scarce for several months. Drones roam the sky and roads are mined. The approach of winter has made the situation particularly urgent.

What is Melania Trump’s role in all of this?

The White House says the first lady heard about Oleshky during an event at the UN General Assembly in September, and worked with her representatives and “directly with Russian and Ukrainian leadership to define the terms of the localised ceasefire”.

In a statement, Melania Trump said “civilian leaders from both [warring] countries will work together to visit Oleshky residents in their homes and determine the level of assistance they require. Residents who wish to evacuate will receive co-ordinated support and transportation to their preferred destination. I anticipate some will want to go to Russia, and some to Ukraine.”

How will the ceasefire, aid and evacuation plan work?

It is not clear how the ceasefire will be monitored, or who will be involved in aid delivery and evacuation. This is a frontline town in a bitter and immensely destructive war between former allies who now share not a shred of trust. They trade blame for the desperate humanitarian situation in Oleshky and accuse each other’s military of terrorising locals: Ukraine says occupying troops use civilians as human shields, and Russia claims Kyiv’s forces attack the town indiscriminately.

Why does Ukraine fear a Russian propaganda trap?

Ukraine justifiably assumes the Kremlin would not have agreed to even a local truce without expecting to profit from it, and it is unclear what Russia’s occupying forces have told Oleshky residents about this week’s plan.

More broadly, Russia has peddled egregious lies during 12 years of aggression against Ukraine, and Kyiv has no reason to expect it to stop now, especially when its propaganda is increasingly amplified by Trump and his circle.

The timing of Moscow’s agreement on Oleshky suggests it is currying more favour with the White House, a week after it freed US prisoner Stephen Hubbard – which prompted a Trump envoy to hail the “humanitarian” qualities of Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Trump has moved closer to the Kremlin again in recent weeks, and Kyiv will not be reassured that loyal Maga media outlet Newsmax has been given exclusive US access to report from Oleshky.

Could this help diplomatic efforts to end the war?

Talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US are expected to resume at some level in early November. Kyiv has said for months that it is ready for a full ceasefire and talks between leaders. Moscow says a summit should seal a final agreement, and wants to negotiate an overarching deal with Trump, not Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

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