Binyamin Netanyahu down but not quite out after Israeli election

Binyamin Netanyahu has failed to win the general election in Israel, but the formation of a new government will be complicated. In the meantime, he remains dangerous.

Down but not quite out

Soon after the polls closed and vote projections pointed to a close contest between the two main Zionist blocs, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot urged Israel’s security establishment to “serve the state and the interests of Israeli citizens alone”. And he warned Netanyahu against attempting to cling to power through war.

“Don’t you dare use Israel’s security for your own political gain,” he said.

As our correspondent Mark Weiss reports, the result offers Netanyahu no clear path to power. But he remains caretaker prime minister until someone succeeds in putting together a coalition that can command a majority in the Knesset.

A return to war with Iran or an escalation of Israel’s military operation in Lebanon could produce the kind of national security emergency that Eisenkot is warning against. And during his long political career, Netanyahu has been skilful in exploiting such crises for political advantage and to secure his position.

Exit polls point to Netanyahu’s Likud and Eisenkot’s bloc winning about 51 seats each, leaving both of them short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. The opposition has a more substantial lead if you add the approximately 17 seats won by two Arab parties after a surge in voting by Israeli Arabs.

But within minutes of the count starting, Eisenkot ruled out including the Arab parties in any coalition government, promising to “replace the Netanyahu government and form a Zionist mobilisation government as soon as possible”.

Writing in Haaretz, Noa Landau asked why someone such as Eisenkot so apparently desperate for victory would be so hasty in ruling out the possibility of ousting Netanyahu immediately.

“On Election Day, masses of Arab citizens extended their hand to the public that calls itself liberal and said we want to be part of this country, despite the emotional and social price a vote like this exacts for the majority of them. Eisenkot chose both to spit in their face and dig himself into a hole, all this without waiting even five minutes for a more up-to-date exit poll to come out,” she wrote.

“Naturally, the television commentators embraced his remarks with enthusiasm, immediately filling their airwaves with analyses of every conceivable and barely conceivable scenario for a ‘Jewish’ or ‘Zionist’ government, as if that were the only option on the table.”

Eisenkot may yet form a minority administration with the help of votes from the Arab parties, while still excluding them from government. And those parties have signalled that they are open to a deal if it helps to reduce attacks on young Arab men, the demolition of homes and villages in the Negev and “racism in all areas of life”.

For the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, a change of government may bring little relief from the relentless violence that has continued since the official ceasefire began a year ago. The United Nations Independent International Commission of Inquiry this week accused Israel of committing crimes against humanity in the West Bank including extermination, torture and rape, while continuing “to commit genocide in Gaza”.

Its report said that military operations since January 2025 have led to the largest displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank since 1967, with 34,176 Palestinians remaining displaced as of August 2026.

“The intentional killing and injuring of Palestinian civilians and destruction of homes in the West Bank combined with Israel’s persistent denial of responsibility form part of a broader strategy to exterminate and displace Palestinians and impose conditions of life that are unlivable,” said Srinivasan Muralidhar, the commission’s chair.

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