Andy Farrell knows Ireland aren’t World Cup contenders, but he’s working on it

For Ireland to be genuine contenders at the next World Cup, as at the last one, they need to again build momentum and belief. That starts this week, for as Andy Farrell conceded in the lead-up to Friday’s Nations Championship meeting with Argentina at the Aviva Stadium (kick-off 8.10pm), this team is not in a position to call themselves World Cup contenders.

At this point four years ago, Ireland had returned from a historic 2-1 series win in New Zealand and would extend their winning run to 17 Tests before that quarter-final loss to the All Blacks at the World Cup.

Beaten 40-21 by the All Blacks in Auckland last time out to extend their losing run against the big three to six, and at an average of 15 points, Farrell candidly admits this team has some ground to make up on four years ago.

“We’re a pretty good team. Recognising that, to grow from a good team in the first place is pretty hard to do but you’ve got to have ambition to do that, the hunger to do that,” says Farrell. “For what’s coming in 12 months’ time, if we’re honest with ourselves, where we are right now, is that good enough to board the plane believing 100 per cent that we’ve a chance to win the World Cup? I don’t think so.

“But that excites me more than anything for what’s coming up in the next 12 months. I see a group that’s ready for the next challenge, which is to ask themselves questions, where it is they want to go to, individually and as a collective.

“It’s something we probably think is very hard to see because we’ve got to go past a lot of people’s ceilings to do that. If you can’t get excited about that then you’re in the wrong place.”

Argentina, Fiji and South Africa are all scheduled to appear at the Aviva Stadium before the Twickenham playoff weekend, but there was no talk of winning the inaugural Nations Championship. Rather, in laying down the challenge to his players, there was a desire to demonstrate real signs of development in all areas.

“We want it to be visible to our fans. We want them to come along on the journey with us and see the ambition of the team growing. More energy than anything, and fight, to show that they care about getting better; delivering intense moments and all of that. We want that to be visible. That’s up to us to do that.”

In making seven changes to the starting line-up from Eden Park, Farrell lauded the return of Andrew Porter, Ryan Baird and Mack Hansen after almost a year’s absence. This was true of Hansen’s personality as well as ability, and Farrell has never been more effusive of Baird, who had started six post-Peter O’Mahony Tests in a row until breaking a leg against South Africa a year ago, and playing on.

“He can be a world-class six and he can be a world-class secondrow as well. He’s thoroughly focused on being as good as he possibly can be. His professionalism is through the roof. His head’s in the right place and his ambition is to be the best he can [be].

“But international rugby, it knocks people around in different ways. You’ve got to react to different sorts of pressures. He’s got the quality to be able to react in the right way.

“His point of difference is there for all to be seen with his speed and power. But his understanding of the game is growing massively, at set-piece and his leadership within that, especially at the lineout.

“I think the world’s his oyster, really. It’s just how you navigate your way through this next 12 months.”

Much is made of the thirtysomething cabal of midfielders, but there are no others banging the door down and, in the absence of Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw remains the most adept Irish midfielder in playing both centre positions. With Caelan Doris and Jack Conan absent, Sean Jansen can cement his place in the squad.

The demands of four games may have contributed to the two relatively surprising selections of Nick Timoney and Craig Casey in the backrow and at scrumhalf, with their more familiar numbers of 20 and 21 handed to Josh van der Flier and Jamison Gibson-Park. Farrell is striving to both bridge the gap and intensify the competition between the understudies and frontliners.

A total of 31 caps is something for Casey to be proud of but there has clearly been frustrations for him in starting only 10 Tests. The most meaningful was the first Test against South Africa in the summer of 2024, although a concussion brought an end to that and meant he missed the second Test win.

His other nine starts have been against Italy (four times), Japan (twice), Fiji, Georgia and Portugal. Nine of his last 15 caps have been as a replacement for Gibson-Park with an average game time of less than nine minutes. It’s time for him to grab this chance, both for himself and to lessen the load on Gibson-Park in the upcoming 12 months. Perhaps there is also a recognition by Farrell that the team of four years ago became over-reliant on Johnny Sexton, a la Gibson-Park now.

Ten of Timoney’s 14 caps have come since turning 30 before last season, although similarly, his six starts have been against the USA, Fiji, Georgia, Japan (twice) and Wales.

For him and them all, it’s time to start delivering.