Key Senate races to watch in the U.S. midterms

Millions of Americans are casting their ballots in what many view as one of the most consequential midterm elections in decades with U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada looming heavy over the tight races.

Senate Republicans were optimistic going into the election, and currently, the GOP holds a 53-47 majority. Thirty-five seats are up for reelection: Republicans hold 22, while Democrats hold 13. With Republican Vice President JD Vance’s ability to break tie votes, Democrats need 51 seats to win control of the chamber.

The most straightforward path for Democrats to win the majority involves holding all of their seats, including the battlegrounds of Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. On top of that, they will need to pick up four more seats, and their best opportunities are in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

Here are the nine key Senate races to watch:

Senate races

Alaska

(Currently held by a Republican)

Rep. Mary Peltola’s decision to run for Senate was a huge win for Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Democrats as she takes on GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, a lowkey conservative who does not stray often from the party line.

Peltola, who won a U.S. House special election to replace the late Rep. Don Young in 2022, later won a full term, defeating former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin. A former tribal judge, Peltola was the first Alaska Native to represent the state in Congress, and she would be the same if elected to the U.S. Senate. She lost reelection in 2024 to GOP Rep. Nick Begich.

Polls have suggested this is a very close race. Peltola has attempted to position herself as an independent voice and distanced herself from national Democratic political figures.

Alaska elections use ranked choice voting, so if neither Sullivan nor Peltola receives over 50% of the vote, it could be a while until a winner is determined. To further complicate matters, there is another candidate named Dan Sullivan — not the incumbent senator — on the ballot.

Georgia

(Currently held by a Democrat)

Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff was swept into office along with Sen. Raphael Warnock after the 2021 Georgia U.S. Senate runoff, a double victory for Democrats that handed them control of the Senate.

Now, Ossoff’s reelection campaign is a bright spot for Democrats. His slickly produced campaign videos have gone viral and driven buzz that he may be seeking the presidency in 2028. He has used Trump’s baseless complaints of election fraud in Georgia as a foil, calling the president the “world’s most famous sore loser.”

Georgia has become a marquee swing state in the Trump era. Trump carried the state by five points in 2016, but lost the state narrowly in 2020. In 2024, Trump won the state back by 2.2 percentage points. And while Democrats have had success in the U.S. Senate races, Republicans still hold all major statewide offices.

Ossoff’s campaign is benefiting from a weakened GOP nominee. Rep. Mike Collins won the GOP nomination, but he had to defeat former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who was backed by GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, in a runoff to get there. Collins faces a massive fundraising deficit against the incumbent — as of late June, he had raised $6.5 million, while Ossoff had raised over $77 million.

Iowa

(Currently held by a Republican)

Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring, opening up one of Iowa’s slots in the Senate for the first time since she flipped the seat for Republicans in 2014. The race presents an opportunity for Democrats, who hope Obama’s presidential wins in Iowa are more than a distant memory.

The Democratic nominee is state Rep. Josh Turek, who has served two terms in a competitive state House district and has two Paralympic gold medals. Amid a difficult political environment for Republicans and the effects of Trump tariffs and rising gas prices on Iowans, the party is counting on Turek to spark Democratic turnout and win over some of Iowa’s 572,000 nonpartisan registered voters.

Turek faces a tough campaign in a state that Trump carried in the last three presidential elections and where Republicans have held a political trifecta since 2017. The GOP nominee, U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, touts a Trump endorsement, though she may be feeling the political pressure of being tied to the president’s agenda. On Sept. 21, about a week after voting not to end the war in Iran, she wrote on X that “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran.” She went on to say that “the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end.” The next week, she appeared in the Oval Office as Trump announced a new $15 billion steel plant in her battleground state.

Ohio

(Currently held by a Republican)

Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is back on the campaign trail after losing his seat to Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno two years ago. This November, Brown is running for Ohio’s other Senate seat, challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed in 2025 to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.

Data centers are a fulcrum for both campaigns. Brown has frequently referred to his opponent as the “face of data centers” in Ohio. Husted has been trying to separate himself from that image. One of his clearest counters to that label, a bill related to energy costs of data centers, failed to pass the Senate last week.

Brown’s hopes of returning to Washington hinge on whether his familiar name and past record will still resonate in a reddening state. Ohio hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide executive office since 2008 and Trump has carried the state in the last three presidential elections. Despite his state’s shift towards Republicans in the past decade, Brown has continuously outperformed Democratic presidential candidates in Ohio since first winning his old Senate seat in 2006. Democrats are hoping he’ll do it again.

Maine

(Currently held by a Republican)

Sen. Susan Collins is the lone Republican representing a state that has never voted for Trump. Like in her last election six years ago, she is the top target for Democrats. Ousting her, however, is proving to be anything but straightforward.

Democrats initially nominated Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who ran an energetic grassroots campaign that forced Gov. Janet Mills, Senate Democrats’ preferred pick, to suspend her campaign before ballots were cast. However, he withdrew his candidacy after he was accused of sexual assault.

In an emergency nominating convention, Maine Democrats picked Troy Jackson, the former state Senate president who finished third in the first round of the governor primary. Polling has shown that he and Collins are in a neck-and-neck race.

Jackson, who was endorsed by progressive stalwart Sen. Bernie Sanders in the governor primary, has a similar political bent to Platner, but has not campaigned as vigorously as the man he replaced on the ballot.

Collins has campaigned on local issues, highlighting her seniority in the Senate and the federal investments she’s brought to the state. Jackson, on the other hand, has attempted to nationalize the race, hoping the political environment will finally bring an end to a political institution in Maine.

Michigan

(Currently held by a Democrat)

Democrats haven’t lost a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since 1994, and they’ll need to lean on that track record again in the Wolverine State.

The party’s hopes lie in Abdul El-Sayed’s hands. El-Sayed, a progressive and former public health director of Wayne County, narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary despite a heavy spending advantage in Stevens’ favor. Stevens had the backing of the Michigan Democratic political establishment, including the outgoing Sen. Gary Peters and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, but El-Sayed effectively tapped into the energy on the left flank of the Democratic party that saw progressives notch wins in primaries across the country. If elected, El-Sayed would be the nation’s first Muslim senator.

In the general election, he’ll face former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost the 2024 U.S. Senate race to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin. While Trump won Michigan, he couldn’t carry Rogers over the line — Rogers received roughly 123,000 votes fewer than Trump, and Slotkin won by about 19,000 votes. Now, Rogers will have to contend with a political environment that favors Democrats, and with no Trump on the ballot.

Rogers, who served seven terms in the House from 2001-2015, has attacked El-Sayed’s progressive stances and his Muslim faith, as well as his ties to far-left streamer Hasan Piker. El-Sayed, in turn, has attacked Rogers’ obedience to Trump and has tried to stay focused on cost-of-living issues.

Stevens endorsed Rogers with just less than 48 hours to go before election day, but was quickly rebuked by Michigan and national Democrats after the remarkable show of support for the candidate backed by President Donald Trump.

New Hampshire

(Currently held by a Democrat)

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is seeking to replace Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, but he’ll have to contend with a Granite State political dynasty.

Former Sen. John Sununu, the brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu and the son of former Gov. John H. Sununu, is seeking the seat he once held. Sununu defeated Shaheen in the 2002 U.S. Senate election but lost the rematch six years later.

Pappas’ family business is a New Hampshire institution in its own right — he and his family own the Puritan Backroom, a Manchester restaurant that’s been around since 1917 and claims to have invented the chicken tender.

Polls have shown this is a tight race, and Republicans believe the Sununu name can help flip this seat. The GOP hasn’t won a Senate seat here since 2010, but the last two governors in the Granite State have been Republican. However, Pappas is battle-tested, having won the 1st Congressional District four times. The 1st District, which encompasses the eastern portion of the state, is the more competitive of the state’s two U.S. House districts.

By the end of June, Pappas had outraised Sununu $15.4 million to $4.2 million. While Trump came close in 2016 and 2024, he did not win the Granite State in any of his three campaigns — a data point that gives Democrats confidence in their ability to hold this seat.

North Carolina

(Currently held by Republican)

North Carolina has eluded Democrats on the federal level since former President Barack Obama’s 2008 victory. The party believes they have just the man to change that.

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper decided to run for Senate, giving Democrats arguably their best recruit of this year. Cooper was first elected governor in 2016 and reelected in 2020 — winning his race while Trump won at the top of the ballot.

Democrats have had success in statewide races here, but Republicans have had the edge in federal races. In 2024, Democrats won the governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general races, all while Trump carried the state.

Cooper will face off against Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman who also served as chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party. Whatley is a staunch Trump ally, with no daylight between him and the Trump administration’s policy positions.

Whatley, who is making his first bid for public office, has trailed Cooper in fundraising and polls throughout the campaign. Republicans have the edge in ad spending, but that advantage has tapered as the party has shifted resources to other races.

Texas

(Currently held by a Republican)

A perfect storm could be brewing for Democrats to win in Texas.

The Lone Star State hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. Jimmy Carter was the last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state in 1976, and the last time Democrats won a Senate race was 1988. They came close in 2018, when former Rep. Beto O’Rourke lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by roughly 3 percentage points. Former Vice President Kamala Harris lost Texas by nearly 14 percentage points.

Nevertheless, this race is firmly in play, in large part due to an expensive and bruising primary on the Republican side. Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, with ad spending surpassing $128 million. Paxton, a Trump ally, has been plagued with scandal during his tenure as the state’s attorney general. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and nearly removed from office, but the state Senate narrowly voted to acquit.

The Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, emerged from a competitive primary himself, defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Polls show a tight race, and while outside spending favors Republicans, by the end of June Talarico’s campaign had outraised Paxton substantially, $68.6 million to $9.2 million. However, from the May 26 runoff through the end of September, Republicans have spent over $100 million more than Democrats on the airwaves, according to AdImpact, as they desperately try to hold onto a seat that’s crucial to their majority.

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