Jess we can – but campaign launch serves a reminder the Liberals haven’t yet

November 15, 2026 — 6:38pm

We are moments from the start of the Liberal election campaign launch and Brian Loughnane, one of the party’s most experienced political strategists, is looking with furrowed brow over a room crammed with placard-waving kids, T-shirted candidates and party volunteers.

One of the reasons for his concerned expression is that, as Victoria’s state party president, he’ll soon have to make a speech to them. Over his decades involved in Liberal politics, most notably as John Howard’s campaign director, Loughnane has always preferred standing in the wings to centre stage.

The other reason for concern is that, of all the elections he has worked on, none are as complicated as the one nearing its climax in Victoria.

Rarely, in a state or federal election, are there so many genuine, four- and five-cornered contests and unpredictable seats. Never in a previous Victorian election has One Nation been a serious player. The Greens’ vote is up. The West Party is a thing. The teals are still around. The socialists insist we should pay them attention, too.

Yet not since 1992, when the financially stricken Labor administration inherited by Joan Kirner was limping towards election day, have the Liberals been so heavily expected to win.

Loughnane is worried those expectations are running out of control. In the numbers he is crunching, he sees little margin for error. Called to the stage by former party leader Brad Battin, he makes clear this message.

“We’re now at a critical stage in this campaign,” Loughnane says. “All of us have seen elections won or lost in the last fortnight. This election is not over, and we must not think it’s over.

“This is a very complex election, much more so than the public commentary and the polls would suggest. We need an historic swing to win, and as things stand, the election will be close.”

Jess Wilson takes her cue from the party elder she personally asked to oversee the state division after she became leader. Dressed in a pantsuit that shimmers somewhere between a shade of cobalt and electric blue, Wilson reminds the room that 16 additional seats – the basic arithmetic required for the Coalition to secure a lower house majority – is a mountain to climb.

“The heightened media interest has seen much reporting, but polls are headlines, not outcomes,” Wilson says.

“Make no mistake – this election will be close. There is much that is unusual about this election and with that comes great risk.”

The Coalition parties have good reason to think they will form Victoria’s next government. A weary Labor administration, on its third leader in as many years, is being dogged to election day by a royal commission into the Big Build, five rate rises in a year by the Reserve Bank, and petrol prices hovering above $2 a litre.

Much of the state is by now on a first-name basis with Wilson, who is young, smart and if she were any politically cleaner, would squeak when she walks. “Jess we can!” the party members cheer. The Liberal campaign bus has been dubbed the Jess Express. At the end of her speech, the function room pulses with chants of “Jess, Jess, Jess!”

Bev McArthur, a Liberal MP and conservative queen-maker who helped deliver Wilson the leadership from Battin last year, tells The Age that two things stand out about this campaign. The first is that everyone actually knows the November 28 election date. The second is everyone can recite the purported $15 billion pricetag on Big Build corruption.

A party that spent a decade warring among itself over the spoils of opposition presents as weirdly united. Former leaders Matthew Guy, John Pesutto and Battin are all on hand for Sunday’s launch and in line to become ministers in a Wilson government. The Liberals’ three living former premiers, Jeff Kennett, Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine, are in VIP seats near the stage.

By contrast, former premiers Daniel Andrews and Jacinta Allan were no-shows at the Labor launch across town. Their only appearance on Sunday was in Liberal Party campaign bumper stickers and leaflets.

Battin is the day’s master of ceremonies. Only a year ago his leadership was torn down by the backers of McArthur and Wilson, but when he sits down to talk to The Age on Sunday, he is sweaty from warming up the crowd for the woman who took his job.

“People want change,” he says. “We’ve got to remind them we’ve got the plan, we’ve got the plan and as you saw today, we’ve got Jess Wilson. I think we’re well and truly ready to roll.

“We’ve got a very organised campaign. We’ve got a very disciplined team. We’ve got a group that are willing to work together to ensure that can deliver.”

Battin predicts that when early voting opens on Wednesday, there will be a stampede at some polling places.

In Australian politics, the timing of campaign launches makes them less about making an opening pitch than delivering a closing argument.

For the Jess-led Liberals, it is a promise of repair – from Victoria’s books to the potholes in our roads to a less tangible vibrancy absent from the state.

In a 35-minute speech which recounted a long list of campaign pledges already made and a new one to establish a bootcamp for youth offenders on the grounds of the old Dhurringile minimum security prison near Shepparton, Wilson promises to restore hope and, borrowing a line from Howard, “make Victorians feel relaxed and comfortable once more”.

She mentions Labor 27 times and One Nation, a party which potentially stands between the Coalition and majority government, only once. She says that people are right to be frustrated and angry, but urges them to put their vote to better use.

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