El Niño threatens SA’s crops, but ample maize stocks cushion the blow

As the heatwave intensifies across South Africa, more people are feeling the impact of the El Niño we have been writing about.

But it’s still early days; forecasters say we are in one of the most intense El Niño periods, which means we are likely to experience not only a drier summer season but also a hotter one through to the first quarter of 2027. 

Households are feeling the impact, but we always worry about the farming sector. The farmers are busy across the country planting the 2026-27 summer grain and oilseed crops. Better soil moisture, supported by the longer 2025-26 summer rain period and excellent rains in September 2026 in some parts of the country, has further improved conditions. 

As a result, planting is continuing well across the country. While farmers know we are probably in one of the drier seasons, many are taking advantage of the current soil moisture and planting crops early.

Crop Estimates Committee farmers’ intention-to-plant data, released on October 27, 2026, shows that farmers intend to continue with decent area plantings. For example, South African farmers intend to plant 4.5 million hectares of summer grain and oilseed.

While this is 2% lower than the 2025-26 planting area, it aligns with the five-year average. 

Therefore, based on expectations, we can be confident farmers haven’t been notably swayed by the year’s El Niño-induced drought and the higher fertiliser and fuel prices. This area encompasses maize (white and yellow), sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and beans. Across these crops, year-on-year declines suggest farmers may reduce maize area more than in other crops.

Major risks remain

Of course, these are still the early days and we will know later in the season whether farmers continue this strong area planting and what overall crop production could be. Major risks remain for crop yields, and we will continue to monitor the weather outlook to gauge how the season could turn out. 

The season’s outcome will influence grain and oilseed supplies from mid-year 2027. For the first quarter and, to an extent, the second quarter of 2027, the country will rely mostly on the available summer grain supplies from the 2025-26 season.

South Africa had an excellent maize harvest in the 2025-26 production year. The harvest is now estimated at 17.7 million tonnes, up 6% year on year and the largest on record.

When South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee released its monthly production figures on 27 October we focused more on the intentions to plan for the 2026-27 season, as this is a focus in the country, with farmers tilling the land nationwide presently. 

But we neglected to mention that, in its ninth production estimates, the Crop Estimates Committee lifted the 2025-26 maize production estimate further, up 1% from the September figure to the now ample 17.7 million tonnes we mentioned above.

These data further underscore the point we have made several times: South Africa enters this drought period in a much better position in terms of grain supplies.

This ample maize harvest adds to the roughly 2.4 million tonnes of stocks at the start of the season, building the country’s available supplies.

This is against the annual maize consumption of 12 million tonnes.

Ample supplies

Because of these ample supplies, among other factors, maize prices have remained lower even as fears of an El Niño drought persist. On 30 October 2025, white and yellow maize prices were well below the levels of over R4,000 per tonne we saw a month ago, at around R3,700 per tonne for white maize and R3,800 per tonne for yellow maize. 

As the season continues and maize demand in southern Africa picks up momentum, prices will probably rise from these levels.

Also important: while the relatively lower prices are ideal for consumers, the same can’t be said for farmers, especially as they continue to face higher input costs.

Still, the key point is that South Africa has ample grain supplies, which will continue to cushion consumers and the animal feed industry over the coming months. DM