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November 12, 2026 / 1:22 PM EST / CBS News
El Niño has become especially powerful this year, with "super El Niño" conditions now officially taking shape.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday that the phenomenon, which affects weather and climate around the world, has intensified and continues to strengthen. Its effects through next spring may even be considered historic, the agency said.
Here's everything to know about El Niño:
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern defined by warming waters in a specific region of the Pacific Ocean near the equator. It occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts between nine and 12 months.
When El Niño is active, a large portion of the world gets warmer, too. In September, researchers at the University of Chicago predicted that an estimated 451,000 more people would die worldwide during this year's El Niño, compared with a typical year, because of excessive heat exposure.
The impacts of El Niño vary in different parts of the world, adjusting hurricane frequencies, altering sea levels, and at times triggering mass flooding or severe drought as well as seasonal snowfall amounts that depart from historical averages.
Fishing and agricultural industries often feel tangible consequences of those changes, as do utilities that depend on rainfall and wind to generate power.
A "super" El Niño
Hype has swirled around the phrase "super" El Niño, which describes an El Niño climate pattern that is particularly strong and impactful. It isn't an official term, though, and neither NOAA nor the World Meteorological Organization recognizes it. Instead, both agencies categorize this year's El Niño as "very strong."
NOAA determines that an El Niño event is taking place when El Niño conditions are detected in the tropical Pacific for at least a three-month period, five times in a row. If sea surface temperatures in that region rise 0.5 degrees Celsius, or more, above average, an El Niño event is declared.
As of Nov. 12, sea surface temperature anomalies topped 4 degrees Celsius as El Niño strengthened and its conditions continued to spread, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. If temperatures rise to 2 degrees or more above average for five three-month periods in a row, the event will be considered a "very strong" El Niño.
El Niño's impact on North America
Due to the warmer climate, the southern portion of North America tends to experience wetter conditions during an El Niño event, as more frequent storms move in from the Pacific Ocean.
But the northern portion of the continent is likely to see milder weather, with less precipitation through the winter months.
In the U.S., southern states should prepare for a stormier winter than usual. According to NOAA's winter outlook, those areas have higher chances of receiving precipitation in the form of rain or snow.
El Niño's impact worldwide
The northern portion of South America and central Africa are typically drier through the winter months during El Niño, while Australia and southern Asia also tend to experience drier conditions with less shower and storm activity. Drought risks are elevated in areas where drier weather is expected.
Wetter conditions will materialize in certain regions, including eastern Asia and the southern portion of South America, both of which are forecast to receive more precipitation as a result of El Niño. Moisture could potentially help improve drought conditions in some of those areas, but it also carries risks for severe flooding.
El Niño's contrasting impacts on Central and South America have raised concerns this year, as a mix of drought and record precipitation devastated agriculture and prompted multiple countries to declare national emergencies.
How El Niño affects hurricanes
How El Niño affected hurricane seasons in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans this year was one of the more obvious examples of its influence.
In the Atlantic, an El Niño tends to create conditions that hamper the development of tropical storms, while the opposite set of conditions encourages their formation in the Pacific. It played a key role in the Atlantic basin's record-low tropical storm and hurricane activity this year, and, at the same time, contributed to the Pacific season's record intensity.
Meteorologists watch for movement of Saharan dust in the atmosphere off the coast of western Africa to predict tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. When an El Niño climate is present, drier conditions enhance Saharan dust, which decreases the potential for tropical activity.
In the Pacific, warmer waters caused by El Niño help create the ideal fuel for storm systems to erupt and become tropical storms or hurricanes. In the Western Pacific, where tropical cyclones are referred to as typhoons, these systems are more likely to become hazardous "super typhoons" during El Niño, at times bringing catastrophic impacts to parts of eastern Asia.
Weather agencies have tracked 32 typhoons so far in 2026. Super Typhoon Sinlaku in April and Super Typhoon Champi in October tied as the strongest typhoons of the year in the Western Pacific, both reaching Category 5-equivalent strength with sustained winds of up to 185 mph.
The Eastern Pacific has seen 21 named tropical systems this year. Some brought large waves to the West Coast of the U.S., eroding luxury beaches. In the Central Pacific, Hawaii has seen five named tropical systems make close passes, bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds and flash flooding.
El Niño's strength often dictates how dramatically it impacts global weather. This year's is among the strongest on record, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, has predicted that it will most likely stick around through March. That means there are still months of potential repercussions ahead.
El Niño events are becoming stronger and longer over time, with scientists linking the current conditions to this year's record heat. Some recent El Niño events happened from 2023 to 2024, 2018 to 2019, 2014 to 2016, 2009 to 2010, and 2004 to 2005. In 2015, only 12 named tropical systems were tracked in the Atlantic while the Eastern Pacific saw 18 named systems, similar to this year.
In:
How El Niño is supercharging Pacific storms
(02:40)
Source: CBS News · Nikki Nolan
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