The Associated Press has tracked voting in U.S. elections for 178 years, and it's gearing up to make thousands more race calls in midterm contests this Election Day.

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Along with gathering ballot returns to declare winners, for the first time in a major general election the AP is now partnering with broadcast news networks to survey the electorate for the new Voter Poll. This questionnaire is an updated way to analyze voter demographics and motivations, and it will offer results in every state where there's a statewide election.

Here's how the AP's election processes work.

How does the AP know ballots are counted?

The AP will tabulate results for nearly 7,000 races, including national congressional contests, state legislative and gubernatorial races, as well as some local elections for mayor, city council and school board, according to David Scott, the AP's vice president for U.S. election services.

About 4,000 journalists working for the AP will collect results from local voting precincts and election offices across the country. Around 1,000 vote-entry clerks will answer calls from those AP workers to enter candidates' vote totals into the news agency's election night reporting system.

READ MORE: A guide to the key ballot measures voters will decide on Election Day

That data is matched to election returns posted on county and state websites or delivered by electronic feeds to ensure accuracy. The AP's Decision Team then analyzes those results to determine who won.

"We like to say that what we do at AP on election night is the single largest act of journalism there is," Scott said.

How and when people vote has changed over time, and the AP's data collection has followed suit. Back in 1972, Scott said, about 95% of Americans voted at a polling place on Election Day, compared to less than half of Americans now. Most people are casting their ballots before Election Day, by mail or through in-person early voting.

How does the AP call election winners?

The AP's Decision Team is comprised of journalists, data analysts and political science experts who study elections full-time. A race won't be called until a candidate has reached the point where competitors no longer have a path to victory.

"Not until that moment," Scott said. "Our certainty is our standard."

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Many races are called on election night, but some take longer. The AP called the 2020 presidential election for Joe Biden four days later, for example. And it didn't call the 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore, sticking by its assessment that the margin in Florida was too close to declare a winner.

Out of more than 11,000 races in which the AP declared winners during this year's primary elections, Scott said his team made three mistakes, citing incorrect information from election officials and a technical issue.

What is The Voter Poll and what does it tell us?

The Voter Poll will interview voters in person about whom they voted for and what issues mattered to them when they cast their ballots on Election Day, similar to traditional exit polls. But the survey is also interviewing people who voted early — reaching them online, by phone or by mail.

The AP used its own system, AP VoteCast, to gather insights about the vote in general elections from 2018 to 2024. It partnered with ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, MS NOW and NBC News last year to develop this new poll, and the broadcast networks will join in conducting the research this year.

READ MORE: What our final poll before Election Day says about midterms and Trump

About 75,000 voters are being surveyed before Election Day, and around 25,000 more will be interviewed at polling places in 15 states on Nov. 3. The survey will also analyze the demographics of states and of their electorates to see how they align.

While races can't be called from this data, it can provide a sense of what direction an election could be going. Scott said voter demographic shifts in 2024 "pointed early in the night to success" for Trump.

The rise in voting ahead of Election Day led to this updated survey method.

"Really what we've tried to do with our colleagues at the broadcast networks is design a methodology that reaches Americans, no matter how you cast your ballot," Scott said. "You have the opportunity for us to ask you questions so we can understand the fullness of the American electorate."

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Source: PBS NewsHour · By —

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Topic
Politics
Country
🇺🇸 US
Publisher language
EN
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