US midterm results must not become a setback for Middle East stability

Show caption: Attendees react as midterm election results are reported dur…

Insight and opinion from The National’s editorial leadership

November 04, 2026

Despite the worldwide attention they garner, America’s midterm elections are, first and foremost, a domestic affair. On Tuesday, voters delivered a stinging rebuke to US President Donald Trump’s Republicans, handing Democrats control of both houses of Congress. Yet the consequences of this shift will be felt far beyond Washington, and few regions have more at stake than the Middle East.

The continuing conflict with Iran has clearly become a domestic US issue. The war has contributed to driving up household costs for millions of Americans, ensuring that Washington’s wider strategic priorities are no longer an abstract foreign policy concern. The election results are a reminder that military decisions abroad carry political consequences at home.

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Abdul El-Sayed makes history as the first Muslim elected to the US Senate

The Middle East and North Africa also featured in other ways. The election of Adam Hamawy, an Egyptian-American doctor who volunteered in Gaza, to the House of Representatives reflects the continued resonance of the Palestinian issue among sections of the electorate. More troubling was the ugly spectacle of repeated Islamophobia and anti-Arab prejudice during the campaign, particularly directed towards Michigan senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed. Such rhetoric should have no place in a country whose strength has long been rooted in its diversity.

America’s domestic priorities are for Americans to determine. However, the country’s influence means that changes in Washington inevitably have international repercussions. For the Gulf in particular, the timing could hardly be more consequential. Military and civil defence exercises in some Arab countries this week highlight continuing anxiety over the confrontation with Tehran. Threats to shipping routes and the possibility of further escalation demand sustained diplomatic engagement, not political uncertainty.

A Democrat-controlled Congress could make it harder for Mr Trump to secure funding and political support for a prolonged military campaign. It could also subject the administration’s regional policy to greater scrutiny. Mr Trump, however, retains considerable authority over military and diplomatic decisions. The election should not be mistaken for an immediate change of direction in American foreign policy. Democrats should be careful not to let their animosity towards Mr Trump endanger their allies.

Gulf states' pragmatic approach will remain essential

Gulf states have spent decades building relationships across the American political spectrum. They understand that administrations and congressional majorities change, while strategic interests endure. That pragmatic approach will remain essential.

There is also a message for Tehran. The political pressure on Mr Trump should not be interpreted as an invitation to exploit American divisions, intensify regional confrontation and drag its heels, as it has in the past, during negotiations. Iran’s people are already enduring considerable hardship. Their future cannot be built on further isolation, proxy warfare or interference in the affairs of Arab neighbours. Tehran must recognise that a negotiated path towards regional stability offers a better prospect than another cycle of conflict.

America’s allies and adversaries will be watching to see what happens next. These results offer an opportunity for greater restraint and renewed diplomacy. At a moment when the Middle East can ill afford another conflagration, Washington’s political upheaval must not become this region’s strategic setback.

Updated:

November 04, 2026, 1:08 PM