Third US carrier mission to Gulf 'major indicator' of new war on Iran

A major US carrier strike group is heading towards the Middle East and could be a “major indicator” of a renewed war with Iran, experts have told The National.

Satellite imagery has shown the USS Theodore Roosevelt has left the South China Sea and is steaming towards the Strait of Malacca, expecting to reach the Arabian Sea late next week.

Its presence in the region will give President Donald Trump three carrier groups to use in any renewed onslaught against Iran, now that the US midterm elections are over.

He may well use the next two months, before the new Democrat-dominated Congress sits in January, to use force to bring Iran to a nuclear deal and fully open the Strait of Hormuz.

Show caption: The US Navy’s USS Theodore Roosevelt was spotted heading wes…

Escalation trigger

“That carrier movement is a major trigger for escalation and a major indicator that we are heading back towards Israeli and US air strikes targeting Iran,” said senior analyst Megan Sutcliffe, of the Sibylline intelligence company.

“The only time that we see the US concentrating three aircraft carriers in one particular region is ahead of major combat operations.”

But former US Marine Jonathan Hackett warned that the deployment could be misinterpreted by Iran, with serious consequences if the Roosevelt was merely there to relieve another carrier. “It’s important to think about a strategic miscalculation on the Iranian side, if it sees this as a signal of escalation, they could take actions that end up creating an escalation spiral that otherwise would not have existed.”

Former Royal Navy commander Tom Sharpe said the movement tied in with “those that thought there might be an escalation in November, post midterms”. Three carriers also gave President Trump “a lot of strike options” and “a hell of a lot of firepower”.

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted a video following the Republican Party's drubbing in mid-term elections this week calling the Iran war a "courageous and historic effort".

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Hegseth defends Iran war and vows to keep fighting

That firepower includes air wings of F-18s and F-35 aircraft and all three carriers will give the US a combined force of up to 144 front-line strike fighters.

The Roosevelt is also accompanied by considerable firepower provided by the USS Chosin, a guided-missile cruiser, as well as two destroyers and a nuclear submarine, all equipped with Tomahawk land attack missiles.

The group also includes the first deployment of an uncrewed drone ship. The Seahawk, a 145-ton, 137-foot-long surface vessel, is designed to operate over extended distances for months.

They will join the USS George Washington and USS George HW Bush carrier groups already in the region.

Show caption: US marines on exercise in the Philippines. Getty Images

Marine island strike

One option for the assembly of carriers is close air support for the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) currently in the region. It could use its battlegroup of 2,200 troops to take one of the small islands at the mouth of the Strait Hormuz.

“The MEU makes a big difference because it gives you many options other than just striking targets from 30,000 feet,” said Mr Sharpe.

If Mr Trump decided to “take the gloves off”, then landing “US Marines on one of those islands as a show of force becomes an option”.

Mr Hackett suggested it would be a “highly wasteful and risky option” and that a marine force could probably hold out for two weeks before it needed relieving. “The question is, if we start taking casualties, how long is the US domestic public going to allow that to continue?”

While an island could be a “bargaining chip” and be used as a forward staging point to flow through army forces for a potential mainland Iran attack, he suggested that military planners would be strongly arguing against it.

‘All guns blazing’

Since the June memorandum of understanding signed with Iran, US commanders have been “extremely risk averse” at losing a pilot and aircraft, and instead have used “exquisite munitions” dropped by aircraft from a distance rather than iron bombs with aircraft penetrating Iran airspace.

This has come at some cost, with the cruise missile stockpile dwindling as well as the loss of 45 Reaper drones and at least one unmanned ship.

“The question is what’s changed post-midterms in Trump's risk calculus,” said Mr Sharpe. “Does he now want to go out all guns blazing, claim a victory and walk away and leave Iran to run the strait?”

Highly likely

The Roosevelt could simply be deploying to the region to replace one of the two carriers already there, suggested military analyst Dr Lynette Nusbacher.

“This should not be read as a sign of imminent combat commitment, however, it is awfully convenient to have a load of naval aviation combat power deployed to the region at the same time.”

The former British military intelligence officer assessed the likelihood of the US “with or without Israel” attacking Iran in the next few weeks, as “high”, adding: “It is more than likely that they will do it.”

The US also has been covertly conducting the tactic of “suppression of enemy air defences” against Iranian air installations in recent weeks.

Any escalation will also be signalled with other signs, such as more US bombers arriving either in Europe or in Gulf states alongside refuelling tankers.