These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social Security

Clockwise, from bottom left, are Josh Turek, a Democratic Iowa state representative, and Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, both U.S. Senate candidates for Iowa; and Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, both U.S. Senate candidates for Maine.

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Senators elected this November must answer a crucial question before their six-year term ends: What will they do to fix Social Security?

The program's trustees project that the trust fund Social Security relies on to help pay retirement benefits may be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. Without action from Congress before then, those benefits could be cut by 22%.

Lawmakers may enact reforms to prevent those automatic cuts. Or they may kick the can down the road.

Most voters — 81% — say they are more likely to support a candidate who has a plan to avoid automatic benefit cuts to Social Security over a candidate who promises not to touch the program, according to a recent survey of voters in states with competitive Senate races by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonpartisan organization.

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Even so, many Senate candidates' campaign platforms lack specifics on plans for the program's future.

While 35 Senate seats are up for grabs in November, including in special elections in Florida and Ohio, CNBC identified nine races where the candidates have mentioned their plans for the program's future. MS NOW says all nine races are closely contested battlegrounds, and it rates the possible outcomes.

Here is a closer look at those nine contests and what the candidates in those races have said about Social Security reform.

ALASKA

U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, a Republican, and former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, a Democrat, are U.S. Senate candidates for Alaska.

Kent Nishimura | Jabin Botsford | The Washington Post | Getty Images

Alaska voters will choose between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who served in the House from 2022 to 2025.

During his latest term, Sullivan voted yes on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which provided a new temporary senior tax deduction of up to $6,000 per eligible individual. Sullivan also voted for the Social Security Fairness Act, which ended reductions to certain government pensioners' Social Security checks. While both laws helped beneficiaries, they increased the program's costs.

Most older Alaska voters — 90% — say they are more likely to support a candidate who will ensure they receive the Social Security benefits they've earned, according to a September AARP survey.

During the 2014 Alaska Senate campaign, Sullivan said he would consider options to cut Social Security costs, such as raising the retirement age or means-testing benefits — a point his opponent raised during the 2026 race.

Sullivan's campaign did not respond to CNBC's requests for comment. During an Oct. 15 debate, he said benefits for retirees and near-retirees should be protected and that program reforms must be bipartisan.

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Peltola's platform calls for eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, according to her campaign website. Peltola also co-sponsored the Social Security Fairness Act.

"Mary will stand up to anyone to fight for Alaska seniors and protect the benefits Alaskans have earned," a spokesperson for Peltola's campaign said in an email statement to CNBC.

MS NOW rates the Alaska Senate race a toss-up.

IOWA

Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are U.S. Senate candidates for Iowa.

Kamil Krzaczynski | AFP | Charlie Neibergall | Getty Images

In the Hawkeye State, sitting Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring, and the open seat's winner will be decided in a contest between Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, a Republican.

"One of the best ways to keep Social Security solvent is we have to remove the cap," Turek said at a Sept. 9 Des Moines town hall, referencing the maximum annual earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes.

Raising or eliminating the cap would mean high earners pay more into the program. In 2027, that threshold, adjusted annually, will rise to $192,300 from $184,500 in 2026. Proposals to raise the cap would generally leave that first threshold in place, and then reapply Social Security payroll taxes at a proposed earnings level, such as $250,000 or $400,000.

In a recent AARP interview, Hinson said, "Anyone who's going to propose cuts to Social Security is going to get a 'hell, no' from me." In 2024, Hinson voted on the House Appropriations Committee to cut Social Security Administration funding by up to $452 million.

In 2020, Hinson noted she was "open" to raising the Social Security retirement age but has since said she opposes that change. In the House, she voted for OBBBA and the Social Security Fairness Act.

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When the candidates were asked during an Oct. 13 debate about Social Security fixes, both said they would support a bipartisan commission.

A Social Security field office in Hinson's district in Decorah, Iowa, recently closed for six months. Some reports indicated low staffing, and political opponents and advocacy groups blamed Hinson's support for staffing cuts backed by DOGE, President Donald Trump's so-called Department of Government Efficiency. In a June 10 statement, Hinson called the six-month closure "unacceptable" and said she advocated for the office to reopen.

Turek "will protect Social Security by lifting the cap to make billionaires pay their fair share," a campaign spokesperson said in an email statement to CNBC.com.

Hinson's office did not respond to CNBC's requests for comment.

MS NOW rates the Iowa Senate race as "leans Republican."

MAINE

U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Troy Jackson during their debate for the midterm elections at the Gracie Theatre in Bangor, Maine, Oct. 15, 2026.

Charly Triballeau | Afp | Getty Images

Maine's incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican, will face Democrat and former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson on the ballot.

During an Oct. 8 debate, Collins said the payroll tax cap should be "adjusted," signaling support for a largely Democratic proposal that has recently gained bipartisan backing. She also said Congress should create a commission of independent financial experts to advise on how to address the program's funding shortfall.

A September AARP survey found 81% of Maine voters age 50-plus say Social Security is an important issue for deciding their vote. Moreover, 93% said they are more likely to support a candidate who will make sure workers receive the Social Security benefits they've earned.

At the debate, Jackson said the threshold should be raised.

In a recent Bangor Daily News op-ed, Jackson said he wants to increase retirees' Social Security benefits. He also said he opposes privatizing the program and other benefit cuts.

In the op-ed, Jackson also said he will "never support" raising the retirement age. Collins said in a 2023 News Center Maine interview, in response to potential reforms being discussed at that time, that she does not support raising the age to 70.

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Collins co-authored the Social Security Fairness Act. She voted against OBBBA in its final vote, citing its Medicaid cuts. However, she did vote "yes" on an earlier motion to further the bill.

Collins' campaign did not respond to CNBC's request for comment.

"Troy will work to scrap the cap and require the wealthy to pay Social Security taxes on their whole income and expand benefits — not raise the retirement age," a Jackson campaign spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

MS NOW rates the Maine Senate race a toss-up.

MICHIGAN

Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican, at left, and Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, are U.S. Senate candidates for Michigan.

Sarah Rice | Finn Gomez | Getty Images

Michigan voters face a choice between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers for Senate. El-Sayed most recently served as Wayne County public health director, and Rogers served as a U.S. representative for Michigan from 2001 to 2015.

El-Sayed said during an Oct. 8 television debate that the Social Security payroll tax cap should be eliminated. "It's only fair that the rich should pay their fair share," he said.

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He also said during the debate that taxes on Social Security benefits should be eliminated.

Rogers said during the debate that he supports a "bipartisan solution" through a committee to address the program's funding issues. "Put them in a room, lock the doors and say, 'Don't come out until we have a real solution that can get bipartisan support,'" he said.

An August AARP poll found that 93% of Michigan voters ages 50 and older said they are more likely to support a candidate who will ensure workers receive the Social Security benefits they've earned.

Rogers has not proposed raising the retirement age or privatizing the program during this campaign. However, he has said in the past that he would support raising the retirement age, according to PolitiFact. As a congressman, Rogers previously supported proposals to allow some Social Security payroll taxes to go to private investment accounts, according to the fact-checking website.

A campaign spokesperson said via email that Rogers understands Social Security is "a lifeline for seniors who've spent their entire lives working hard and investing into this state ... Mike will ensure that we invest in them."

El-Sayed's campaign did not respond to CNBC.com's request for comment.

MS NOW rates the Michigan race as a "toss-up."

NEBRASKA

U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts, a Republican, at left, and Dan Osborn, an independent, are U.S. Senate candidates for Nebraska.

Win McNamee | Allison Hess | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Nebraska voters may choose between Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent candidate Dan Osborn, a labor union leader backed by state Democrats.

Ricketts has said Social Security benefits should be "completely tax-free."

As Nebraska governor, Ricketts signed a 2022 law to phase out state taxes on benefits. As senator, he introduced a similar federal measure, which remains with the finance committee. He also voted for OBBBA. While eliminating taxes on benefits helps recipients, it reduces revenue for the program.

"Nebraskans reaching retirement age deserve to receive the benefits they have earned," Ricketts said in an emailed statement. "I am committed to protecting our seniors' benefits and working to improve the Social Security program for all Americans."

To extend Social Security's solvency, Osborn has called for raising or eliminating the payroll tax cap, according to his campaign website. "The solution is very simple — remove the Social Security cap, so everyone pays their fair share," he said in an email statement to CNBC.

Osborn is against Social Security benefit cuts, including raising the retirement age, and privatization of the program, according to his campaign website.

MS NOW rates the Nebraska Senate race "likely Republican."

NEW HAMPSHIRE

U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, a Democrat, at left, and former U.S. Sen. John Sununu, a Republican, are U.S. Senate candidates for New Hampshire.

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New Hampshire voters in November may choose between two veterans of Congress: Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is not running for reelection.

Pappas, who has served as a U.S. representative since 2019, will "never vote to cut benefits," according to his campaign website. At an August event, he said high earners should pay their "fair share" into the program.

"I also think that seniors deserve a raise," Pappas said at an Oct. 14 AARP candidate forum. Social Security's cost-of-living adjustments have not kept up with the "true cost of living," he said.

Pappas voted for the Social Security Fairness Act. However, he voted against OBBBA, citing its cuts to social safety net programs, including Medicaid.

Sununu has served terms in the Senate and the House of Representatives. During his tenure, Sununu supported bills that would have diverted a portion of payroll taxes to individual investment accounts instead of the Social Security trust funds under a broader push by then-President George W. Bush.

Pappas has said during the campaign that Sununu led efforts to privatize the program — a statement that fact-checking organization PolitiFact said is "mostly true," noting that Sununu's proposals would have been voluntary, limited by age or both. Had the proposal passed, the program would be solvent today, Sununu said in an August WMUR interview.

"I never voted to change or reduce or cut benefits," Sununu said at AARP's candidate forum.

Sununu's campaign did not respond to CNBC's request for comment. Pappas' campaign referred CNBC to his comments on Social Security during the recent AARP forum.

MS NOW rates New Hampshire's Senate contest as "leans Democrat."

NORTH CAROLINA

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, at left, a Democrat, and Republican Michael Whatley, former chair of the Republican National Committee, are U.S. Senate candidates for North Carolina.

Al Drago | Shelby Tauber | Bloomberg | Getty Images

North Carolina's Senate candidates — former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley — have raised the issue of Social Security during their campaigns.

Cooper told AARP in September that some members of Congress are "undermining" Social Security by giving the wealthy tax breaks. He told AARP that the program needs to be protected and strengthened: "In the U.S. Senate, I'll work with anyone I can to do just that."

A September AARP poll found 83% of North Carolina voters ages 50 and over say Social Security is an important issue for deciding their vote. Meanwhile, 93% say they are more likely to support a candidate who ensures workers get the benefits they've earned.

Whatley told AARP that his top priority will "always be to preserve and protect" Social Security and that he will not support any proposals that "take away anything from what is owed" to people who have paid into the program.

Whatley also said Congress must work in a "bipartisan way" to improve the program's solvency.

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Whatley's campaign did not respond to CNBC's requests for comment.

In an emailed statement, a Cooper campaign spokesperson said: "Roy Cooper will work to protect and strengthen Social Security benefits for current and future generations."

MS NOW rates the North Carolina Senate race as "leans Democrat."

OHIO

Former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, at left, and Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Husted are U.S. Senate candidates for Ohio.

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Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio is pursuing a comeback bid, running against Republican Sen. Jon Husted. The special election will decide who will serve the remaining two years of the term formerly held by Vice President JD Vance.

As senator, Brown advocated for expanding and protecting Social Security benefits. He co-authored the Social Security Fairness Act.

A June AARP poll found that 83% of Ohio voters ages 50 and older said candidates' positions on Social Security will affect how they vote.

More recently, in an October AARP voter guide video, Brown said he opposes privatizing the program.

"We need to make sure that billionaires are paying their fair share by raising the tax cap so we can extend the life of the program," Brown told AARP.

In AARP's video, Husted said Social Security will require "genuine bipartisan solutions."

Husted voted for OBBBA. He also introduced a constitutional amendment to balance the federal budget, a move critics say may prompt large cuts to Social Security.

Asked about the candidates' plans for Social Security, neither Brown's nor Husted's campaigns gave CNBC more detail.

MS NOW rates the Ohio Senate race as a toss-up. 

TEXAS

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, at left, and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico are U.S. Senate candidates for Texas.

Michael Gonzalez | Sergio Flores | Getty Images

Voters in the Lone Star State may choose Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, or Democratic candidate James Talarico, a state representative and former middle school teacher.

Talarico said that to shore up Social Security he wants to eliminate the Social Security tax cap for individuals earning over $400,000. "I'll ensure the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share into Social Security," Talarico said in an AARP interview published Sept. 1.

A September AARP poll found 91% of Texas voters 50 and older said they would support a candidate who advocates for workers getting the full Social Security benefits they've earned.

Paxton told AARP that Washington "has no business cutting" Social Security benefits. Paxton also said in the interview that one of his goals is "rooting out" what he said is "waste, fraud and abuse" in the program.

Paxton said in a leaked audio recording that "there's no doubt we have to cut some of the mandatory spending," the Texas Tribune reported on Oct. 8. Social Security is among the federal programs funded through mandatory spending. Paxton told the newspaper in a statement that he would protect Social Security.

Paxton's campaign did not respond to CNBC's request for comment.

A spokesperson for Talarico said the candidate will "stand up" against attacks on Social Security and "fight to ensure all Americans can afford to retire."

MS NOW rates the Texas Senate race a toss-up.