The Swingiest State Has Gone Very Red

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· 7:46 min

By Michael Grunwald

Mr. Grunwald is a contributing Opinion writer. He wrote from Miami.

Nov. 13, 2026

Democrats around the country are now asking the question weird-crime aficionados and real estate analysts have been asking for years: What is happening in Florida?

The anti-Trump stampede that trampled Republicans in blood-red bastions like Kansas, South Carolina and Texas on Nov. 3 somehow missed President Trump’s adopted state, where Republicans held on to a U.S. Senate seat, the governor’s mansion and every other statewide office. The Democratic candidate for governor, David Jolly, came just over one heartbreaking percentage point of breaking the G.O.P.’s 27-yearlock on Tallahassee.

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Now the finger-pointing has begun, with Florida Democrats blaming suboptimal candidates, dubious strategies and especially the national donors who in recent years stopped investing in this former super-swing state. Florida was once the ultimate expression of America’s 50-50 politics, with eight races for governor, Senate and the presidency decided by roughly a point or less from 2000 to 2018, and frustrated Democrats believe their latest razor-thin losses prove that it can be again.

But that deep-purple Florida is gone, and it isn’t coming back anytime soon. The simple reason Democrats lost here last week is that an awful lot of Republicans have moved to Florida since the Covid pandemic, and those newcomers really like the way Republicans are running it. Gov. Ron DeSantis has remained quite popular, despite Mr. Trump’s struggles, and his vision of a “Free State of Florida” — where taxes are low, vaccines should be optional and masks are for woke losers — has become a magnet for some of the nation’s most reliable G.O.P. voters.

In 2000, when Al Gore lost the presidency to George W. Bush by a mere 537 votes in Florida, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans here by nearly 400,000 voters, a four-point gap. But Republicans took a narrow registration lead after the pandemic in 2021, and conservative baby boomers have continued to flock here ever since. There are now 1.5 million more Republicans than Democrats, a gigantic 11-point gap, and they vote.

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