Syria-Iraq oil pipeline not a threat to Turkey, Energy Minister says

Turkey does not oppose the rehabilitation of an oil pipeline between Iraq and Syria that would provide an alternative export route to the Strait of Hormuz for Baghdad’s crude, Turkey’s Energy Minister has said.

“We are not afraid” of the Kirkuk to Baniyas pipeline, the Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, said in response to a question from The National during a press briefing in Istanbul, dismissing the idea that it would represent competition to crude export routes via Turkey.

Neighbouring Iraq and Syria signed an agreement in July for the repair of the 800km Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline, which originally opened in 1952 with a capacity to transport 300,000 barrels per day of crude oil. But it fell out of use during decades of conflict and has been defunct since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

The July deal came amid a rush by countries across the Middle East to find alternative crude oil export routes to the Strait of Hormuz, where the US-Iran war has prevented tankers from sailing to global markets.

With traditional channels through its southern ports via the Strait of Hormuz hampered, Iraq has been transporting tens of thousands more barrels of oil per day northwards overland by lorry to a pipeline network in Turkey, and has also asked for Syria's help transporting crude by land.

A functioning pipeline route via Syria could transport crude from the oil-rich city of Kirkuk in Iraq to Syria’s Mediterranean coastline at Baniyas for export to global markets more efficiently than road transport and help diversify Iraq's export routes, reducing its precarious reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

Mr Bayraktar said Ankara was “not afraid” of the route to Baniyas representing an alternative to the pipeline that led from Iraq to Turkey’s Mediterranean port at Ceyhan, partly because the Turkish way was cheaper and more stable than other options.

“We are not afraid of any alternative because we have enough market for everyone, and we are suggesting to increase the existing 1.5 million (bpd) capacity of Turkey to 2.5 million, and the Syrian direction can go up to one, 1.5 million,” Mr Bayraktar said, speaking at the launch of Turkey’s energy strategy up to 2040.

“Still, there is room, but of course, we believe ours is more competitive – cheaper. Plus the security and stability of the region is ... I believe we are in much better shape.”

Show caption: The Baniyas-Kirkuk oil pipeline in Syria. Ahmad Fallaha / Th…

The Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline runs through remote areas of the Iraqi and Syrian deserts home to ISIS cells, and the extremist group has a known history of attacking oil infrastructure.

Analysts do not expect a quick repair job on the route either. The Iraq-Syria agreement in July was the most recent of repeated efforts over the years by multiple governments to revive the pipeline, the initial capacity of which was 300,000 bpd but could be vastly increased, analysts say.

Its eventual reconstruction is likely to cost billions and take years, and the energy analysis firm Kpler has assessed the probability of near-term realisation as “low”. Sanctions on the former Assad regime and instability across both Iraq and Syria have been among the factors preventing the financing and international input needed to rebuild the line.

The Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan is connected to Iraq by the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) with capacity to transport 1.5 bpd of crude on the Turkish side. But Turkish officials have for years said it is underutilised on the Iraqi side.

Exports through the pipeline halted completely in March 2023 for two and a half years, following an International Court of Arbitration ruling that Turkey had breached a treaty governing the ITP system by facilitating crude exports from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region without the permission of federal authorities in Baghdad.

Exports later came back online after Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and international oil companies there reached tripartite agreements over production and transportation pricing.

Complicating matters further, the ITP treaty between Baghdad and Ankara expired this summer, and crude exports are now governed by an extension deal between Iraq’s oil authorities and Turkey's state pipeline operator Botas.

Independent trade publication Iraq Oil Report described it as an agreement, “meant to keep crude moving while the two governments negotiate a broader agreement that Turkey wants to extend beyond oil to gas, electricity and other commercial co-operation”.

At present, Iraqi crude exports via Ceyhan have been boosted by lorry transport to the northern export route of oil from Iraq’s southern production hubs. An Iraq Oil Report analysis of Ceyhan shipping data showed a seven-day export average up to October 5, 2026 of about 328,000 bpd, up from export levels of less than 200,000 bpd in September.

Show caption: The Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline runs through remote areas of the…

Mr Bayraktar said Turkey welcomed co-operation to diversify export routes. He said he had “for so many years” suggested to Iraq that it extend the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline within Iraqi territory to route oil via pipeline to Turkey from the country’s southern production hubs.

“I suggested for so many years to our Iraqi friends, let's extend this Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline all the way to Basra, and through that you can diversify your supply routes, and more oil will come to the Mediterranean basin,” he said. “You have new customers, European customers mainly, right?”

Ambitious energy goals

Beyond Turkey’s keenness to keep co-operating with its southern Middle Eastern neighbours, Mr Bayraktar laid out Turkey’s energy goals up to the year 2040, banking on increasing nuclear energy, electrification and renewable sources to reduce carbon emissions by 40 per cent, secure energy supplies and navigate what he called an era of “constant crises”.

Coal – production of which in Turkey has been criticised by environmental groups and human rights organisations – is still necessary for “security of supply”, for sustaining local jobs and for ensuring Turkey honours its contractual commitments to mining operators, he said.

Located near the Middle East, Russia, Ukraine and Europe, Turkey has been hit by both the energy shocks and increased prices caused by the US-Iran war and the continuing conflict in Ukraine, further prompting efforts to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons and move towards nuclear power and renewables.

He said a move to reduce Russian gas imports and increase purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US was motivated by economic concerns rather than politics.

“It’s not politics but because of the price: because Russia is extremely expensive,” Mr Bayraktar said. “We [still] need to buy gas from Russia, but the simple answer is that it is expensive.”

Russia nonetheless very much remains in Turkey’s energy picture: the Akkuyu nuclear power plant owned by Russian state nuclear energy firm Rosatom is reaching completion near the Turkish city of Mersin with an aim of physical start-up in “the next few weeks”, Mr Bayraktar said.

Turkey wants $1 trillion in public and private investment to meet its energy goals by 2040, which lies halfway to 2053, when it aims to reach carbon neutrality

Mr Bayraktar acknowledged that global financing conditions are “tight” and “the cost of capital is high” but said all countries should step up to fund climate goals and the energy transition.

“If the world is serious about carbon neutrality, and if you would like to fight with climate change and global warming, guys, we need to find the money,” he said. “Everybody needs to take some responsibility and provide money for that.”

Financing new sources of energy “is expensive”, he said, but Turkey is able to attract investment. “We see there is a great appetite around us from the Gulf, from the Western financial institutions, and since you have a strong balance sheet and growth story, there is money out there.”

Central among his messages at the Cop 31 climate summit, which Turkey hosts in the city of Antalya next week, will be that nations must seize opportunities imminently if they are to meet the 1.5C global warming target. The goal was formally set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement at that year’s Cop, but climate experts warn of “overshoot” and a failure to bring down carbon emissions sufficiently to reach the goal.

In the US, President Trump has repeatedly dismissed climate change and called it a “con job” while calling for more hydrocarbon extraction.

“At least politically, it [the US] is not in the game,” Mr Bayraktar said. “Maybe when it comes to putting, I don't know, solar panels in some states. But political will and commitment are key here.”