Oil prices are so high that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are dropping

The U.S. war with Iran has raised fossil fuel prices so much that the resulting drop in oil demand has put the world on track to see a rare dip in carbon emissions from these sources in 2026.

Between 2019 and 2025, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels grew by about 0.8 percent annually, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. But 2026 is set to buck that trend: high oil prices as well as the continued rise of green technology—solar power, wind, and electric cars—will cause a “short-term” 0.4 percent drop, according to the study.

“The high petrol prices following the war in Iran are reducing oil use and keeping emissions low,” says study lead author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia, in England. “But that’s not the whole story—the expansion of renewable energy has progressed a lot in recent years, led by China, and this is offsetting two-thirds of the growing demand for energy,” she says, along with electric vehicles.

On supporting science journalism

If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.

With all sources of carbon considered, including deforestation, total global CO2 emissions are set to continue increasing.

The findings come as the United Nation’s climate talks get underway in Antalya, Türkiye and a year marred by global temperature extremes and climate disasters. This year is on track to be among the hottest on record.

The drop in emissions is also notable as it is the first annual reduction since the COVID pandemic, when emissions dropped by an estimated 5 percent or so, Le Quéré says. Researchers also measured a small decrease in emissions after the 2008 recession. “However, in both cases emissions rebounded the year after,” Le Quéré says.

If oil prices return to their pre-war levels, Le Quéré and her colleagues expect to see emissions rise once more. But the “rebound” could be countered by further adding renewable energy to the world’s portfolio, she adds.

“We show that to tackle climate change and guarantee that global fossil emissions decrease durably, the expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicles need to accelerate further,” Le Quéré says.

Subscribe to Support Independent Journalism

Great science journalism requires human expertise, time, effort and creativity. And it costs money. That’s why I and the journalists here at Scientific American hope you’ll join our community.

When you subscribe, you are supporting staff and freelance journalists who are passionate about telling science stories that are true, important and compelling. Our editors and reporters are often experts in their fields, which means they understand the nuances of big discoveries and can untangle the breakthroughs from the hype. With a subscription, you are also supporting rigorous fact-checking to ensure the words we publish are precise and accurate. And you’re supporting original illustrations, graphics and photos that bring you closer to an advanced laboratory, an ice sheet in Antarctica or a space mission in orbit. You’re helping us craft other types of high-quality journalism as well: Our newsletters are carefully written, edited and curated by staffers you have or will come to know and love. Our Science Quickly podcast is based on original reporting, collaboration with editors and scientists and exacting production.

Subscriptions keep this engine running so we can continue to deliver thoughtful, rigorous and independent science journalism to you. In an era of viral misinformation, this work is crucial. If you value what we do, I hope you’ll consider joining us as a subscriber