NHL’s next media deal will test the league’s strength

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One of the biggest developing stories in entertainment and sports is how the world's biggest media companies judge the value of non-NFL rights — and the NHL is giving us our first window into this new era in media values.

My colleague Mike Ozanian is out with his new NHL valuations this morning. See the full list here.

The NHL can begin formally negotiating a new media rights deal with its incumbent partners — Disney/ESPN and Skydance, the new owner of TNT Sports — on Jan. 1. Sources tell me the league wants an increase in overall rights fees between 50% and 100% over its current deal. The NHL inked a 7-year, $4.5 billion deal with ESPN and TNT Sports in 2021. 

Whether the league actually gets that type of increase is still unclear — and that will be one of the most watched data points in the world of sports business next year. 

RALEIGH, NC - SEPTEMBER 29: Center Jordan Staal (11) of the Carolina Hurricanes lifts the Stanley Cup for the Championship Celebration Storm Surge and Banner Raising prior to the NHL game between the Florida Panthers and the Carolina Hurricanes on September 29, 2026 at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Katherine Gawlik/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Icon Sportswire | Icon Sportswire | Getty Images

The bull case for the NHL

National media rights for the NHL currently make up about 13% of its annual revenue, which is around $8 billion, according to CNBC estimates.

I'm told both Disney/ESPN and Skydance want to renew a deal with the league. Both companies have engaged in preliminary conversations with the league in the past few weeks, and while there's still work to do in terms of price, there's mutual interest in getting something done. 

In its current deal, ESPN has access to 100 exclusive games for the 2026-27 season. Fifty-three of them air on ESPN or ABC, and the other 47 exclusive stream on ESPN. Under current terms, the league's playoffs are split between Disney and TNT Sports. 

I'm told Disney is particularly interested in acquiring the rights to more playoff games. The NHL had its most-watched playoffs on record last season, averaging 1.8 million viewers per game. The Stanley Cup averaged 5.2 million viewers — the largest audience since 2019. It was played between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Vegas Golden Knights — not exactly marquee NHL franchises.

Last year's regular season averaged 546,000 viewers across ESPN/ABC and TNT Sports, up 25% from a year ago — the highest average in more than a decade. 

The sport is also having a moment culturally. Earlier this year, HBO Max said its hockey-romance series "Heated Rivalry" averaged a whopping 10.6 million viewers per episode. 

International hockey competitions, such as the league's annual "4 Nations Face-Off" midseason tournament and the 2026 Winter Olympics, have drawn huge ratings. The last "4 Nations Face-Off" game — 2025's U.S. vs. Canada final — drew 9.3 million viewers. 

This year's Gold Medal men's hockey game between the U.S. and Canada averaged a stunning 26 million viewers on NBC and Peacock in the U.S., according to Nielsen data. That made it the most-watched sporting event in U.S. history with a start time before 9 a.m. ET.  

"We think we've got the best content," NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said on CNBC last month. "Our ratings have continued to increase. We were up dramatically into the double digits last year. So we view ourselves coming into the marketplace in a very strong position. Having said that, the marketplace is extremely competitive and extremely fragmented. But, I believe that with fierce competition that's going on between traditional television and the newer media platforms that there'll be a great opportunity for us to both expand our reach and get paid what we think is an appropriate reflection of our value."

Recent history suggests the NHL will get the rights increase it wants. The NBA nearly tripled its national media rights revenue, signing an 11-year, $77 billion contract with Disney, Amazon and NBCUniversal in a deal that started last season. 

The NHL also renewed its TV rights deal in Canada just last year with Rogers Communications, scoring an increase of more than 100% annually when adjusting for currency fluctuations. 

But recent history may not match up to present reality.

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - FEBRUARY 20: Brady Tkachuk #7 of Team USA celebrates his goal against Team Canada in the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off Championship Game at TD Garden on February 20, 2025 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Bruce Bennett | Getty Images Sport | Getty Images

The bear case

While I've been told Skydance is interested in getting a deal done, sources also tell me Skydance's top two priorities are paying down debt and saving money to pay for what's going to be a huge NFL rights increase — potentially $1 billion per season or more. 

Skydance is dead set on renewing the NFL, I'm told. Those talks will likely occur in 2028, as the league has an opt-out clause at the end of the 2029-30 season.

The NHL was a meaningful sports property to Warner Bros. Discovery. The company could use its loyal fanbase and sizable playoff ratings to help justify distribution fees to pay TV providers while marginally adding some subscribers to HBO Max.

Now that Paramount and WBD have been pushed together, the NHL isn't as important to Skydance for distribution leverage, which already has premier sports media rights such as the NFL, The Masters, college football, March Madness, UFC and UEFA Champions League. 

That's not to say the NHL isn't a priority for Skydance. Sources both from Skydance and the NHL tell me they'd like to get a new deal done. Skydance still needs programming for the cable networks it owns to keep that business chugging along. But relative to WBD, it's not as much of a must-have. 

"As it relates to future rights, we'll be disciplined," Skydance CEO David Ellison said during an earnings conference call this week — perhaps hinting at his company dropping not only NHL but also other rights from the WBD portfolio in the coming months and years. "Every right has to earn its place."

Perhaps Skydance remains a partner but buys fewer NHL games. This potentially opens the door to new bidders. I'm told CNBC's own parent company Versant would be interested in a slice of NHL games. Amazon sniffs around just about every national sports property that comes to market. 

Netflix? Regular season NHL games are certainly not events. Fox? NBCUniversal? Both companies need to worry about how much it's going to cost to renew the NFL. A big package of NHL games may not fit the strategy. 

How much the NHL can extract from its media partners will likely set the bar for other media rights set to come to market, including MLB, which could be delayed by labor negotiations. New York Yankees President Randy Levine told Ozanian this week that "I don't know whether they'll reach an agreement or not."

Disclosure: Versant Media is the parent company of CNBC.

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