New trilateral talks on Ukraine war in Abu Dhabi: What to expect?

A new round of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States are scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and Wednesday, months after a flurry of US-mediated peace talks earlier this year in January and February went nowhere.

When announcing the new trilateral talks last week, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said the discussions would focus on "post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts, and next steps toward peace."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has named security guarantees, an energy ceasefire, unblocking the Black Sea, extended prisoner exchanges, and preparations for a meeting of the leaders of Ukraine, the United States and Russia as his key topics.

Lawmaker Davyd Arakhamia, a member of Ukraine's delegation, told DW he was not expecting quick progress.

"I don't think there will be a breakthrough, after there was such a long break in the negotiation process," he said. "Simply the fact that trilateral talks are being resumed can be counted as a success."

Who is sitting at the table?

Witkoff will be joined by US President Donald Trump's son-in-law, real estate developer Jared Kushner, who serves as special envoy. 

The Kremlin has sent Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, to act as chief negotiator, along with a delegation including high-ranking Russian military and intelligence officials. 

The Ukrainian delegation will be led by Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, along with Arakhamia, and diplomatic and military officials. 

Europe joins in 

Separate formats are planned with several European representatives.

These include Günter Sautter, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's foreign and security policy adviser, Emmanuel Bonne, head of the Elysee Palace's diplomatic service and Jonathan Powell, the UK's national security advisor, and Fabrizio Saggio, diplomatic adviser to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Björn Seibert, Chief of Staff for the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and Geoffrey van Leeuwen, Chief of Staff for NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, will also attend.

It's doubtful, however, whether European representatives will be formally involved in talks on a potential peace deal. 

Hanna Shelest, a security studies director at the foreign policy network Ukrainian Prism, told DW she believed they'd play "an observing role, at best."

She added that, until now, Russia had been reluctant to have European representatives at the table to uphold the impression that talks were "a matter between two superpowers" — namely, Russia and the United States — and to increase pressure on Washington.

"I doubt the Russian delegation will let the Europeans have a say," she told DW.

"Experience from the past years has taught us that as soon as Medinsky heads negotiations, the point becomes demonstrating to the US that Russia is willing to talk, but in reality, they won't reach an agreement," she explained. "Instead, there will be a long sermon about history and all sorts of other things."

However, she said Moscow sending high-ranking intelligence officers as part of the delegation was a "fairly positive aspect" of Russia's intentions.

She believed that additional negotiations were possible at this level.

This could include over prisoner exchanges or humanitarian pauses in villages near Oleshky, a town in the Russian occupied Kherson region in Ukraine's south, where US First Lady Melania Trump was credited with arranging a temporary truce in late October that secured humanitarian aid and allowed civilians to evacuate.

But despite these "positive signals," Shelest cautioned against hoping for concrete results, and suspected Russia was using the talks to stall.

Oleshky truce as a template for wider ceasefire?

Late last week, Trump spoke of a "big beautiful agreement," after speaking with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, "that might involve all of Europe."

This new security architecture, Kushner later clarified on social media, would be centered around "permanent security consultations, reliable crisis communications, greater military transparency, reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks, and an enduring framework for long-term European security and stability."

These points "don't contain anything the Russians haven't been talking about since 2009," Shelest said.

Ivan Us, chief consultant and economic diplomacy expert at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, pointed out that negotiations with people who are not decisions-makers could be simply for show.

But he agreed with other expert observers that negotiators in Abu Dhabi might try to use the temporary truce brokered for Oleshky as a model for other limited humanitarian ceasefires in the region.

But while Us said he saw cause for optimism, he also cautioned that Russia had continued attacks in Ukraine during the Oleshky truce, and had used the pause to fortify its positions around the town.

This article originally appeared in Ukrainian.