Netanyahu left on shaky ground after losing election majority

Israel's final election results have left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu without a parliamentary majority, setting the stage for difficult coalition negotiations in which Arab-led parties could determine who forms the next government.

Results released early Friday showed Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the main opposition bloc secured 48. Arab-led parties captured the remaining 19 seats, their strongest showing to date, putting them in a potentially decisive position as rival camps seek the 61 seats required to govern.

Neither Netanyahu nor his main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has an obvious path to a majority. Both must negotiate with parties whose ideological differences and competing demands could make an agreement difficult.

"Now comes the truly hard part," centrist politician Yair Lapid said on X, urging Israelis to remain patient.

The biggest question is whether Eisenkot and other opposition leaders will cooperate with Arab-led parties to remove Netanyahu or abandon their campaign promises and consider joining a government led by the prime minister.

Arab parties hold the balance of power

One potential route to an anti-Netanyahu government would involve Eisenkot's bloc joining forces with Arab-led parties, potentially creating a 67-seat majority. Even without formally joining the coalition, the Arab parties could provide the support needed for a minority government.

However, such an arrangement would carry considerable political risks for Eisenkot and his Jewish allies.

Arab citizens make up about 20% of Israel's population. Many are Palestinians whose families remained within the country's borders after the 1948 Nakba.

They maintain close ties with Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, contributing to longstanding suspicion among many Jewish Israelis.

An Arab party joined an Israeli governing coalition for the first time in 2021, when the United Arab List became part of a government that lasted approximately 18 months.

Netanyahu has portrayed renewed cooperation as a betrayal of Israel's Jewish identity and a national security threat, increasing pressure on right-leaning opposition lawmakers to reject such an alliance.

Hundreds of Israelis have meanwhile demonstrated, urging Eisenkot and his allies to work with Arab-led parties rather than allow Netanyahu to remain in power. Strong Arab turnout also reflected opposition to Netanyahu's far-right allies, particularly National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose party lost seats.

Unity government

Another possibility would involve Netanyahu persuading Eisenkot or some of his right-leaning allies to abandon their opposition and join a unity government.

Such an arrangement could potentially secure a 67-seat majority but would require significant compromises.

Eisenkot and his allies have repeatedly ruled out serving under Netanyahu, blaming him for the security failures surrounding Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, incursion and accusing him of undermining democratic institutions. They have also cited his ongoing corruption trial as a reason he should leave office.

Joining a Netanyahu-led government would risk alienating voters who supported the opposition to secure a change in leadership. One of their central demands is an official inquiry into the failures preceding Oct. 7.

Netanyahu could also seek to exploit divisions within the opposition by approaching right-wing politicians Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. Both support settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank but have longstanding disputes with Netanyahu and oppose military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men, a major demand of his religious allies.

Election interference

The negotiations are unfolding amid controversy over unsubstantiated allegations that Arab-led parties manipulated the election, potentially with foreign assistance.

Before the final results were announced, Netanyahu and his Likud party amplified claims that Arab-led parties had stolen the election.

Opposition figures accused the prime minister of undermining the legitimacy of Arab voters and inflaming tensions against a population representing about one-fifth of Israel's citizens.

In his first public response Friday, Netanyahu posted on X that forming a coalition with Arab parties was forbidden.

Noam Sohlberg, head of Israel's election committee and a Supreme Court justice, said serious suspicions of foreign interference had been brought to his attention. Although he could not verify the claims, he requested an investigation by the Shin Bet security agency.

Israeli media reported that members of Netanyahu's party had accused Qatar of involvement. The Gulf country rejected the allegations as "ridiculous and dangerous."

The election committee said the investigation was based on classified intelligence but stressed that it would not affect the final results or target any particular section of the population. Acting Director General Dean Livne also warned against unfounded reports surrounding the inquiry.

The Shin Bet said its investigation was not intended to cast suspicion on an entire community that had exercised its democratic right to vote lawfully. The election committee described allegations of systematic electoral violations as baseless and requested the agency's findings within a week.

Another election remains possible

If neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot secures a majority, Israel could face another election early next year, with Netanyahu's government remaining in a caretaker capacity.

A fresh vote could hurt the opposition, which entered the latest contest with considerable momentum but failed to secure an outright majority. Tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad reportedly travelled home to vote, raising questions about whether they would make the same journey again.

Netanyahu could use the additional time to strengthen his position. Several smaller parties aligned with him failed to cross the electoral threshold required to enter parliament, leaving some pro-Netanyahu votes without representation. Their supporters could shift toward larger right-wing parties in another election.

Israel previously endured five elections in three and a half years following a similar political deadlock in 2019.

Losing office would also expose Netanyahu to increased pressure over his corruption allegations and calls for an official investigation into the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 incursion.

The results must be certified and submitted to President Isaac Herzog next Wednesday. He will then select a candidate to attempt to form a government. The new Knesset is expected to be sworn in Nov. 10.

Herzog has pledged to do everything possible to prevent another election, but Israel's political future remains uncertain as party leaders prepare for negotiations that could reshape the country's government.