Midterm elections come to a close in referendum on Trump's presidency

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters struggling with high prices and angry over an unpopular war with Iran will decide Tuesday whether to drastically shift power in Washington in midterm elections that will serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump's second term.

Democrats were cautiously optimistic as they watched Republicans spend the campaign's final stretch pumping tens of millions of dollars into states and districts that Trump won handily two years ago. They're betting that discontent over Trump's failure to deliver on his promise to tackle rising costs and perceptions that he has focused more on gilding the nation's capital than their pain at the pump will depress Republican turnout and drive their own voters to the polls.

Republicans held out hope their money advantage would help stem the tide, but they were bracing to lose control of the U.S. House and fighting to hang onto the U.S. Senate — an outcome that seemed unlikely earlier this year, given a map widely seen as favoring their party.

Still, margins are tight in both chambers; one or two seats could tip the balance. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the 100-member Senate to win the majority, an uphill climb because many of the most competitive races are in historically red states. In the 435-member House, they need only three.

More than 57 million people had already cast ballots as of Monday, with turnout surpassing the early vote four years ago in many closely watched states.

Trump, whose party has struggled when he's not running to turn out the low-propensity voters who've fueled his victories, has told voters to act as though he is running, even as many Republican candidates have tried to keep their distance.

"I really want you to pretend I'm on the ballot," he told the crowd in Salina, Kansas, on Sunday at the final of several dozen rallies in the campaign's closing weeks.

On Tuesday, Mark Barker, of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, said Trump was very much top of mind as he voted. "I've just been following Trump the whole time. I really think he's doing an awesome job," said Barker, noting the president's promise of $5,000 for every U.S. adult if Republicans retain control of Congress, border policy and war in the Middle East. "Everything he's done has been outstanding."

In Raleigh, North Carolina, 57-year-old librarian James Moore said he voted for Democrats to push back on Trump's big tax breaks and spending cuts bill. "I'm paying more taxes. I'm paying more for my healthcare. I'm paying more for everything," he said. "We need more representatives in Congress that are going to stand up to Trump."

Trump's aggressive schedule had stops in the reddest states, including Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas, underscoring his party's challenges.

He also has continued to make false claims about voting fraud, such as insisting noncitizens are casting ballots en masse. His administration has filed lawsuits in Alaska and California, and Democrats fear interference and voter intimidation as his Justice Department threatens to prosecute local election officials.

The election could reshape the political landscape

The results will shape the final two years of Trump's second term after the Republican-controlled Congress acted as a rubber stamp to much of his agenda. While Trump has proven adept at steamrolling efforts to rein him in, Democrats taking control of even one chamber of Congress would open the floodgates to investigations and possible impeachments. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and tech titan Elon Musk, a former top Trump adviser, are among possible targets.

An especially strong showing for Democrats would also boost potential presidential candidates, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. It could also complicate the paths of Vice President JD Vance and other Republicans who may be looking to turn their loyalty to Trump into momentum.

Republicans tried to buck historical precedent — a president's party almost always loses seats during the midterms — with an aggressive redistricting effort aimed at creating a more favorable congressional map. But the plan may fall short as new districts drawn in Florida and other states to be safely red may not vote that way.

Other Trump choices could prove costly. In Texas, Trump worked to oust longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in favor of scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton, setting the stage for an extraordinarily expensive race against Democratic nominee James Talarico, who Democrats hope may finally help them realize their dream of flipping the state.

In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis retired after clashing with Trump. The president's chosen replacement, former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, has struggled to gain traction against the Democrats' candidate, former Gov. Roy Cooper.

"Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters, we win, and that's what we've been planning for," said Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters, expressing optimism on the eve of the election.

The vast majority of Republican television ad spending in the general election, 88.1%, was spent in states and districts Trump won in 2024, according to an Associated Press analysis of data from media tracking firm AdImpact. That included more than $850 million on ad reservations in states and districts Trump won by 10 percentage points or more.

The electorate sours on Trump

Only 35% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's performance as president, according to the most recent polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Most blame him for high prices as they struggle to afford gas and groceries.

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What was once his strongest issue is no longer: 25% of U.S. adults now say they approve of Trump's handling of the economy. Overall, about 7 in 10 say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

"The American people are angry. They want change," said Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who said momentum was on her party's side.

Senate and House are in play

In the Senate, Democrats have been most confident about picking up North Carolina and holding Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Republican Rep. Mike Collins. Other key battlegrounds include Ohio, where Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted, and Alaska, where the Trump administration filed a lawsuit to block certification of Senate results if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan loses the race, citing the presence of a second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the ballot.

READ MORE: Here's when polls are closing in your state this midterm election

Republicans hope they can hold seats in Iowa, Kansas and Maine and pick up Michigan, where Mike Rogers faces progressive Abdul El-Sayed — one of a crop of left-wing candidates who prevailed in Democratic primaries. El-Sayed's former primary opponent, Haley Stevens, upended the race Sunday by endorsing Rogers, renewing focus on tensions over Israel and the direction of the party.

In the House, Republicans now try to hang on to their narrow majority, as Democrats try to flip seats in states Trump has repeatedly carried, from Florida to Texas to Iowa.

Dozens of states are electing governors

Beyond Washington, 36 states are electing governors. Democrats hope to take over a majority of statehouses for the first time in two decades. Competitive races include those in heavily populated states such as Texas and Florida, plus reliably red states such as Iowa.

In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign faced backlash for an ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton's estranged mother, who lost custody of Acton decades ago after her husband, Acton's stepfather, was indicted for raping Acton as a child.

The stakes in Washington are high

Trump's final two years in office will likely be defined in part by who controls Congress.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, in line to make history as the nation's first Black speaker of the House if his party sweeps to power, has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on lowering the cost of living and aggressively overseeing the Trump administration.

The Senate could emerge as a key backstop for Trump's priorities if Republicans retain control or as a new power center for Democrats who could use it to halt presidential nominees and challenge the White House agenda.

The 2026 elections will likely go down as the most expensive in history. Republican committees have dramatically outraised and outspent their Democratic counterparts thanks, in large part, to money from Trump-affiliated groups and Musk. But at the candidate level, Democrats outraised Republican opponents.

Associated Press journalists Aaron Kessler in Washington; Cody Jackson in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.; and Allen Breed in Raleigh, N.C., contributed.

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