Middle East faces worsening water shortages as El Nino intensifies, UN warns

Water shortages have persisted in the Middle East despite "unusually" heavy rainfall in some areas, the UN said on Monday, warning that a powerful El Nino could bring more extreme weather in 2027.

The World Meteorological Organisation said the shift in rainfall patterns showed how unpredictable weather is becoming in a region already facing severe water shortages, extreme heat and growing pressure on agriculture.

"Unusually high precipitation totals were recorded in the Middle East, after dry conditions in 2025," the WMO said in its State of the Climate 2026 update, released on the opening day of the Cop31 climate summit in Turkey.

"These wet conditions extended north through Eastern Europe and Central Asia."

But the heavier rainfall has not erased the region's long-term water problems.

Show caption: A stranded vessel at Anavilhana, the world's second-largest …

The Middle East remains among the areas where freshwater supplies stored underground or in rivers, lakes and reservoirs have fallen below normal levels.

According to the WMO, the amount of water stored on land has been declining worldwide since 2014. The Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia were among the regions where shortages persisted in 2025.

Globally, 42 per cent of assessed areas had below-normal freshwater storage last year, compared with a long-term average of 25 per cent.

The findings show how even periods of heavy rain may not be enough to make up for years of water shortages, particularly in regions where groundwater supplies are already under strain.

The warning comes as the world braces for a powerful El Nino, a natural climate pattern that could make extreme weather more severe against the backdrop of global warming.

"El Nino doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release," said WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo.

"We are supercharging our weather, and El Nino will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for."

She noted that the past four years have been the warmest in the 177-year observational record, and heat in the oceans is breaking records for the tenth year in a row.

El Nino threatens more extreme weather

The WMO warned that the current El Nino could become one of the strongest on record, bringing more extreme heat and severe weather in 2027.

Global temperatures were 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels during the first nine months of the year, putting this year on track to rank among the four hottest ever recorded.

Show caption: Various European governments issued health warnings over the…

“We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Nino is colliding with a planet already superheated by man-made climate change. Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising," said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in September.

"And those least responsible are suffering first and worst. Leaders must get serious by cutting emissions faster, accelerating a just transition from fossil fuels and delivering the finance and protection vulnerable countries need."

El Nino occurs when waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The warming changes weather patterns around the world, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall and flooding to others.

It also tends to push global temperatures higher.

The phenomenon strengthened rapidly after cooler La Nina conditions ended earlier this year. The WMO said it will continue until at least February 2027.

The consequences could be particularly severe in countries already struggling with food shortages, limited water supplies and humanitarian crises.

Sea levels reach record highs

The report also warned that global sea levels had reached record highs in June, July and August, the highest readings since satellite records began in 1993.

Sea levels are rising faster than they were three decades ago.

Between 1993 and 2002, they rose by an average of 2.4 millimetres a year. That increased to 3.9 millimetres annually between 2017 and 2026.

Show caption: The rise is largely caused by melting glaciers and ice sheet…

The rise is largely caused by melting glaciers and ice sheets, as well as the expansion of seawater as the oceans warm.

Nearly 900 million people, or about 11 per cent of the world's population, live in low-lying coastal areas exposed to rising seas and flooding.

Glaciers around the world lost about 408 billion tonnes of ice in 2025, enough to raise global sea levels by roughly one millimetre.

The oceans are also continuing to warm. Ocean heat reached a record high in 2025, with early measurements showing further increases in 2026.

The world's oceans absorb more than 90 per cent of the excess heat trapped by global warming, making them a major indicator of the planet's changing climate.