JD Vance Blames Midterm Losses on Trump’s War: “Everyone Knows Why We Lost”

JD Vance is getting into position for 2028.

The vice president posted a surprisingly candid and detailed assessment of the Republicans’ midterm losses and that was seemingly at odds with much of his boss’s “everybody’s to blame but me” messaging.

Vance listed four things that a pollster told him disaffected Republican voters wanted: “End the war, focus on cost of living and inflation, put America first and change our relationship to Israel.”

While Vance dutifully supported the Iran war publicly, there have been reports that he was privately against the war from the outset.

“The main problem is not turnout,” he wrote. “The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026 … Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats … The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”

As Vance indicates, Trump has nodded to the Iran war to an extent, saying “I think a part of it was Iran” to Fox News, but he also added, “I don’t think it’s the war, I think it’s the gasoline price.” Even that admission was packaged amid a blizzard of other finger-pointing. Trump has also blamed everything from Fox News to the Republican candidates (some of which he handpicked) to the fact he wasn’t on the ballot.

“If Greg Abbott, the Governor of Texas, hadn’t become a RINO in the last six months of his Political Life, he wouldn’t have lost,” he wrote, and, “FoxNews bears responsibility for these losses by constantly and consistently putting on the Dumocrat opposition, and worse,” and, “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!”

Of course, Vance is notably referring to a pollster who surveyed what mattered most to defecting Republican voters. What would perhaps be more useful is knowing what matters most to voters in general — unless the GOP only wants to appeal to its base rather than successfully cast a wider net, like the Democrats did Tuesday. The Associated Press election survey found that the economy, democracy and corruption were major voter concerns, and wanted to see Congress take a more forceful role in checking the presidency.

Vance concluded his message by saying, “I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, ‘I told you so:’ you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.”

Below is the full post.

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.