Is the NFC North the best division ... ever? Barnwell on big wins for the Packers, Bears and Lions

• Bill BarnwellNov 9, 2026, 08:15 AM ET

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  Bill Barnwell is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. He analyzes football on and off the field like no one else on the planet, writing about in-season X's and O's, offseason transactions and so much more.

  He is the host of the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, with episodes released weekly. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland.

Sunday, unsurprisingly, brought three more wins for the NFC North. During the afternoon games, the Lions comfortably beat the Dolphins 19-9 in what might have qualified as a home game given the makeup of the crowd in Miami. The Packers stomped the Patriots 45-27 with an offensive blizzard in Foxborough. And while the Bears turned the ball over five times in primetime, they had enough left in the tank to move the ball into position for a game-winning field goal and beat the Buccaneers 27-24.

Unquestionably the NFL's best division as we hit the midway point of the 2026 season, the North can go 4-0 for the first time in a single week all season if the Vikings beat the Bills on "Monday Night Football" to cap Week 9. But even if the Vikings fall, the NFC North can hang its hat on its first-half résumé. Regardless of Monday's result, the North will finish Week 9 with the best collective record of any division through nine weeks in the Super Bowl era. You are watching, at least by wins and losses, what has been the best division in NFL history.

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Can these four teams keep it up? And if they do, what does it mean? Will the stiff competition to win the division exhaust four of the best teams in football and leave them easy pickings in January? Or does iron sharpen iron and leave the team that tops the North as the favorite to win the Super Bowl? Of these four teams, which one has the best shot of actually winning the division and making that deep playoff run? I'll run through all that today, starting with how special the North has been so far.

Jump to:
Historically great division?
The Bears' case as the best
The Lions' case as the best
The Packers' case as the best
The Vikings' case as the best

Special start to 2026

Chicago's victory Sunday left the NFC North at 25-8 with one game left to go in Week 9. That's a winning percentage of .757, roughly the equivalent of a 13-win team over a full 17-game season. As I mentioned, that's the best winning percentage any division has posted through nine weeks of NFL football since the 1970 merger. If the Vikings lose Monday, the NFC North would drop to .736, which would still be the best through nine weeks. The 2022 NFC East, which started 24-9 (.727) at this same point four years ago, would be the only other division with a .700 or better winning percentage through nine weeks.

The list of best starts by raw wins and losses is full of teams from the 32-team era (2002 and onward) for a couple of reasons. The league's split into eight four-team divisions, and it's easier to find four very good teams in any given year than five. When NFL teams were in five- and even six-team divisions, they also played more intra-division games, which usually (but not always) result in one of the two teams losing, which naturally hurts the division's win-loss record.

Of the eight losses the NFC North has incurred this season, five are to other teams in the division. The Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings are collectively a whopping 18-3 (.857) outside of their division so far this season. The Lions have lost to the Bills and Panthers, while the Packers lost to the Falcons on a short week in September. They've collectively beat non-North teams by just over a touchdown per game, scoring nearly 28 points per contest in the process.

Cairo Santos' walk-off FG lifts Bears over Bucs on SNF

The outside-the-division win percentage is also the best mark in NFL history through nine weeks, though the Vikings could spoil it with a loss to Buffalo. In 1984, the AFC West collectively went 21-4 (.850) through nine weeks, which the 2026 NFC North would fall below with a Vikings loss. The 2022 NFC East is the only other division to win 80% of its out-of-division games through nine weeks, going 20-5 through midseason. The North is guaranteed to be no worse than second in out-of-division winning percentage through nine weeks.

That 1984 race in the AFC West was really between three teams, with the 8-1 Broncos just ahead of the 7-2 Seahawks and Raiders. The 5-4 Chiefs and 4-5 Chargers were very good fourth- and fifth-place teams relative to the competition, going a combined 8-2 outside of the West to start the season, but they went a combined 1-7 within the division and fell off. At the end of the year, the AFC West sent those top three teams to the postseason.

They combined to win exactly one playoff game, though, and that came when the Seahawks knocked off the then-division rival Raiders in the wild-card round before getting comfortably dispatched by the Dolphins in the divisional round. The 13-3 Broncos, who won the division, blew a second-half lead at home against the Steelers, as a John Elway interception on a checkdown with three minutes to go set Pittsburgh up with a short field for the game-winning score.

How often does that happen, though? Do these dominant divisions breed champions, or are they worn out by the time we get to the Super Bowl? Let's take a look at the 12 next-best divisions after the 2026 NFC North and 1984 AFC West through nine weeks in terms of out-of-division record and see what happened afterward:

3. 2022 NFC East

Out-of-division through Week 9: 20-5 (.800)
After Week 9: 12-7 (.632)
Playoff teams: Three (14-3 Eagles, 12-5 Cowboys, 9-7-1 Giants)

Two years after the East sent a 7-9 Washington Football Team to the postseason as division champs, all four teams in the 2022 version went .500 or better. All three qualifying teams also won at least one playoff game. The Cowboys blew out the Bucs in Tom Brady's final NFL game before losing to the 49ers. Daniel Jones and the Giants beat a 13-win Vikings team on the road in Minnesota before getting rolled by the Eagles.

And an excellent Eagles team easily rode its way through the NFC, dominating the Giants before beating the 49ers 31-7 on a day where Brock Purdy suffered a serious elbow injury early in the game and left the 49ers with Josh Johnson and Christian McCaffrey under center. The Eagles were slight favorites in the Super Bowl, only for the Chiefs to prevail on a field goal at the end of regulation 38-35.

4. 2020 AFC North

Out-of-division through Week 9: 15-4-1 (.775)
After Week 9: 11-9 (.550)
Playoff teams: Three (12-4 Steelers, 11-5 Ravens, 11-5 Browns)

This division faded down the stretch, collectively failing to claim one of the top two seeds in the AFC. The Steelers lost 48-37 to the Browns in a wild-card shootout, before Cleveland fell short against a Chiefs team that lost Patrick Mahomes to an in-game concussion. The Ravens gained a measure of revenge on the Titans after being upset by them in the prior postseason with a 20-13 victory, but they could do nothing on offense the following week in a 17-3 loss to the Bills. None of these teams even made it as far as the AFC title game.

5. 2007 AFC South

Out-of-division through Week 9: 16-5 (.762)
After Week 9: 14-5 (.737)
Playoff teams: Three (13-3 Colts, 11-5 Jaguars, 10-6 Titans)

This was a legitimately great division that happened to be stuck in a conference with my pick as the best team of the past 25 years, the 2007 Patriots. The Jaguars beat the Steelers on the road by two points in the wild-card round before losing to the Pats, while the AFC West champion Chargers took out the Titans and Colts in consecutive weeks, beating the latter on a day where Philip Rivers left the game with a torn ACL and turned things over to Billy Volek. Good teams, but again, they were gone before the conference championship.

6. 1999 AFC East

Out-of-division through Week 9: 19-6 (.760)
After Week 9: 10-5 (.667)
Playoff teams: Three (13-3 Colts, 11-5 Bills, 9-7 Dolphins)

This was one of the rare times where a five-team division saw each club finish at .500 or better, as the Jets and Patriots both ended the year at 8-8. Bills fans remember this one well, of course, as the Titans overcame a one-point deficit from a Steve Christie field goal with 16 seconds left to win on the Music City Miracle. Tennessee then took out the Colts in the divisional round, keeping Peyton Manning out of the end zone for the first 58 minutes of a 19-16 victory. The Dolphins upset the Seahawks on the road in the wild-card round before getting shellacked 62-7 by the Jaguars in what would be the final NFL games for Jimmy Johnson and Dan Marino. Again, nobody got as far as the conference title game.

7. 2019 NFC West

Out-of-division through Week 9: 19-6-1 (.750)
After Week 9: 7-7 (.500)
Playoff teams: Two (13-3 49ers, 11-5 Seahawks)

This division didn't hold up after the midway point of the year, as the defending NFC champion Rams fell off and missed the playoffs altogether despite trading for Jalen Ramsey in-season. The Seahawks finished 11-5 and beat the Eagles in the wild-card round after Carson Wentz and Josh McCown were injured, but they were dispatched by the Packers one week later. And while the 49ers ran through the Vikings and Packers (via Raheem Mostert's 220-yard, four-touchdown performance) to make it to the Super Bowl, they fell to the Chiefs. We're still looking for one of these superdivisions to deliver a world champion ...

8. 2008 NFC East

Out-of-division through Week 9: 18-6 (.750)
After Week 9: 8-7-1 (.531)
Playoff teams: Two (12-4 Giants, 9-6-1 Eagles)

... and that won't come here, as the Cowboys lost three of their final four games to miss the playoffs entirely, including a 44-6 blowout in what amounted to a de-facto playoff game against the Eagles in Week 17. Those Eagles were 5-5-1 at Thanksgiving, but they went 4-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs, then upset the Vikings and Giants on the road to advance to the NFC title game. A furious comeback from down 24-6 in the second half got the Eagles to a one-point lead in the fourth quarter, but a Kurt Warner touchdown pass with 2:59 to go shut the door on the Eagles and our hopes of landing a title winner here.

9. 2024 NFC North

Out-of-division through Week 9: 20-7 (.741)
After Week 9: 13-4 (.765)
Playoff teams: Three (15-2 Lions, 14-3 Vikings, 11-6 Packers)

Fans of the 2026 NFC North will certainly be familiar with the 2024 edition, which saw the division title and top seed in the NFC come down to the final week of the regular season. The Lions beat the Vikings to take home a first-round bye, but injuries and turnover luck caught up with them at the worst time, as the Commanders picked on their defensive scraps in a 45-31 upset. The Vikings went to Los Angeles and lost 27-9 in Sam Darnold's nine-sack game. A banged-up Packers team (allegedly) fumbled away the opening kickoff, lost multiple offensive starters to injury and never looked close in losing 22-10 to the Eagles. This division, so great during the regular season, lost their playoff games by a combined 50 points.

10. 2016 AFC West

Out-of-division through Week 9: 17-6 (.739)
After Week 9: 9-8 (.529)
Playoff teams: Two (12-4 Chiefs, 12-4 Raiders)

Another year without much luck. The 9-7 Broncos lost three of their final four games to miss out on the playoffs. The 12-4 Raiders lost Derek Carr to a late-season injury and had to turn to Connor Cook for his first and only NFL start in a postseason loss to the Texans. And while it looked like the Chiefs had converted a two-pointer to tie up the game at 18 against the Steelers in the divisional round with 2:43 to go, a holding penalty on Eric Fisher erased the conversion. The Chiefs came up short on the ensuing try and lost 18-16. Again, zero playoff wins.

11. 2023 AFC North

Out-of-division through Week 9: 17-6 (.739)
After Week 9: 14-7 (.667)
Playoff teams: Three (13-4 Ravens, 11-6 Browns, 10-7 Steelers)

This one doesn't go well, either. The Steelers and their Mike Tomlin magic were blown out by the Bills. A dominant Browns defense collapsed in an ugly loss to the Texans. And while the Ravens were able to get some revenge for the division with a 34-10 win over Houston the following week, a Zay Flowers fumble at the goal line cost Baltimore in a 17-10 loss to Kansas City in the AFC title game.

12. 1997 AFC West

Out-of-division through Week 9: 16-6 (.727)
After Week 9: 5-13 (.278)
Playoff teams: Two (13-3 Chiefs, 12-4 Broncos)

While the AFC West as a whole turned into a pumpkin over the second half of the season, we finally found a Super Bowl champ. The Chiefs and Broncos finished with the best records in the AFC, and after Denver ran all over the Jags in the wild-card round, it faced Kansas City in a rubber match in the divisional round. The Broncos won a defensive struggle 14-10 before beating the Steelers in the AFC title game and topping the defending champion Packers in the Super Bowl.

13. 2007 NFC East

Out-of-division through Week 9: 16-6 (.727)
After Week 9: 12-6 (.667)
Playoff teams: Three (13-3 Cowboys, 10-6 Giants, 9-7 Washington)

We've got two in a row! Washington didn't make it out of the wild-card round after getting manhandled by the Seahawks, but the Giants made a run that you might have heard about once or twice. After nearly beating the 16-0 Patriots during the final week of the regular season, an unappreciated Giants team beat the Buccaneers as three-point underdogs in Tampa Bay, then the Cowboys as seven-point underdogs in Dallas and then the Packers as 7.5-point underdogs in overtime in Green Bay. And finally, of course, the Giants shocked the Patriots 17-14 as 12.5-point underdogs in the Super Bowl.

14. 2011 NFC North

Out-of-division through Week 9: 16-6 (.727)
After Week 9: 8-10 (.444)
Playoff teams: Two (15-1 Packers, 10-6 Lions)

This wasn't really a great division, as the Bears finished third at 8-8, while the Vikings held up the rear at 3-13. A high-flying Lions offense couldn't win a shootout with the Saints in the Superdome, losing 45-28. And a dominant Packers team looked rusty after its first-round bye. A Hail Mary just before halftime gave the Giants a 20-10 lead, and New York eventually forced four Packers turnovers in a 37-20 victory. And just as the 2007 Giants followed an upset victory in Green Bay by shocking the Patriots in the Super Bowl, the 2011 team did the same thing.

So in the end, just two of the top 14 divisions by out-of-division record through nine weeks delivered Super Bowl champions. Both of those champions also failed to win their hyper-competitive divisions during the regular season, instead upsetting the division champs on the way to winning the Lombardi Trophy.

The North could flood the NFC playoffs with candidates. If the playoffs started today, all four NFC North teams would be in the postseason, something that hasn't happened since the league moved to its 14-team playoff structure and made a four-playoff team division possible in 2020. Of course, even acknowledging that winning one of the truly elite superdivisions hasn't delivered Super Bowl success in the past, I would still bet that these four teams are going to try to claim the top spot in the division, knowing it'll guarantee them at least one home game in the postseason.

In such a tight race, which team has the best argument for calling itself the cream of the crop in the NFC North? There's no right answer in my eyes, but I'll make a case for all four teams, going in alphabetical order.

Chicago Bears (7-2)

The case: They have the highest ceiling in football.

Is it almost more impressive that the Bears turned the ball over five times against the Buccaneers and won anyway? After going up 14-0 on the final play of the first quarter and looking like they were about to stomp the Bucs, the Bears struggled to play consistent football on offense, with five turnovers across their 11 ensuing possessions. The offense failed to score another touchdown the rest of the way, but the defense chipped in with a pick-six from Jaylon Johnson, and Caleb Williams led a two-minute drill to kick the game-winning field goal in a 27-24 win.

Even with a four-interception game now on his record, it's very clear Williams has leveled up this year. The 2024 first overall pick led the league in QBR before this week, and while the rough day dropped him to seventh in a tight race, Williams looks far more in command of this offense. He has gone from posting the league's worst completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) in 2025 to its seventh-best mark among qualified starters this year, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Williams' hero ball habits that caused so many problems as a rookie have been reined in, if not dispatched entirely, and coach Ben Johnson has worked with the quarterback to harness his considerable talents. Williams' ability to throw people open on third-and-long situations, stay calm against pressure and deliver absolutely indefensible passes for first downs has been scary for Bears opponents to watch. He has already taken a major stride forward, and I wouldn't bet against there being another gear for Williams to hit by the end of 2026.

If anything, the disappointing thing for the Bears this season on offense has been their run game. Chicago is 12th in EPA per play and 19th in success rate on designed runs, including 17 carries for 66 yards against a stout Bucs defense on Sunday night. D'Andre Swift has 10 touchdowns in short-yardage spots, but he's averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, down more than a full yard from where he was a year ago. The Bears miss Kyle Monangai, who has been out for over a month with toe and thumb issues, as Roschon Johnson and Salvon Ahmed have not been able to consistently spell Swift in the backfield.

We've also seen how explosive this run game can be -- in the opener against the Panthers, the Bears produced 28-, 32- and 61-yard runs on the ground. Those big plays haven't been as present since then. Monangai had a 26-yard run against the Jets in Week 4, while the only other run of 20 or more yards was a screen pass that was thrown slightly backward to Kalif Raymond and technically referred to as a run against the Seahawks on a crucial third down last week.

Luther Burden III outruns defense for 56-yard Bears TD

And yet, in Williams' five complete games this season, the Bears have scored 30 points or more four times. Their defense, a major concern after that Panthers game, ranks sixth in EPA per play allowed and eighth in points allowed per drive since the start of Week 2. And much of that was without defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, who has made an immediate impact since joining the team as part of a massive trade with the Titans two weeks ago.

Simmons will have to help the Bears overcome what will likely be some defensive regression coming due in the second half of the season. Dennis Allen's defense has thrived by playing spectacular football on third down, with the Bears allowing teams to convert a league-low 22.8% of the time. Throw in a 4-for-13 performance on fourth down, and the Bears are comfortably the best defense in the league when it comes to getting off the field on money downs.

Great defenses don't perform that well on third and fourth downs, and I'm not sure the Bears are a great defense. They're 28th in defensive EPA per play on first and second down before that jumps to first on third and fourth down. I could believe that Allen's schemes and pressure packages make the Bears better on passing downs than they are on early, more run-heavy downs, but jumping from a bottom-five defense to the league's best isn't a trick I would count on pulling over a full season. Simmons can help the Bears win on early downs and continue to get off the field on third downs, though.

While the Bears were shut down against the Vikings on a day where Williams was present for most of the game before going down with a hamstring injury and just had a wildly sloppy performance against the Bucs, Chicago won one of those games and lost the other by a field goal. If the goal is to find a team that can go absolutely nuclear and score 30-plus points three or four times in the playoffs, the Bears could be a very credible selection.

Detroit Lions (6-2)

The case: They've beaten two of the three other teams in the division ... with their defense?

While the Lions are always going to be a team defined by its offense given how much they've invested on that side of the football, there are at least some reasonable signs that the defense might be holding up its end of the bargain. Since their Week 6 bye, the Lions have won three straight without topping 20 points on offense. Before the bye, that would have led to an 0-5 start, as the Detroit defense had allowed 21 or more points in each of the first five games.

Since the bye, the Lions have held the Packers to 17 points, the Vikings to 15 and the Dolphins to three field goals in a 19-9 victory Sunday. While Miami is not the stiffest competition, the Lions did that without their top cornerback (D.J. Reed), their top linebacker (Jack Campbell) and their second-best edge rusher (DJ Wonnum). The Dolphins produced one play over 20 yards all game, and it came on a fake punt.

The Lions are eighth in EPA per play on defense and ninth in points allowed per possession over the past three games, and that has come through limiting explosive plays for opposing offenses. Before the bye, the Lions were allowing explosive plays on just under 14% of snaps, the worst rate of any team in the league. Over the past three weeks, that has dropped to 8.5%, which is the eighth-best mark. Given that we've seen both the Dolphins and Packers rank in the top 10 in explosive play rate this season, slowing them down and forcing them to work their way down the field is good defense.

Facing calls for his job after a rough start, defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard has turned the blitz knob down a bit. Through the first six games of the year, the Lions blitzed about 30% of the time, which was roughly league average. Since then, Sheppard has sent extra men just under 23% of the time, which is the eighth-lowest rate in the league and a major departure from the Aaron Glenn-style defense that Sheppard inherited at the start of the 2025 season. They've gone from sending six or more men over 16% of the time before the bye to 10% afterwards.

Those blitzes were getting home, but when the ball got out anyway, the guys who were left in the Lions secondary were in shambles. When the Lions got pressure before the bye and quarterbacks managed to get the ball out, they were allowing 8.5 yards per attempt, the second-worst rate in the NFL. Since the bye, with more defenders in coverage, that figure has dropped to 3.3 yards per attempt, which is the second-best rate in the league. The Lions have been a good tackling team this year -- they have the lowest missed tackle rate of any defense -- but their secondary wasn't even close enough to attempt tackles on ball carriers in the open field.

Of course, the Lions have upgraded their personnel. Brian Branch has returned to the lineup after the bye, and while the star safety is working his way back to his usual level of play after tearing his Achilles last season, even a limited version of Branch is a major upgrade on the players the Lions were running out on the back end. Sheppard has moved Branch all around the field, getting his best defensive back near the line of scrimmage to handle players in the slot and help out against the run.

Detroit has also played more base defense than most other teams, lining up with four defensive backs on the field 45% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league. It stuck with that plan even without Campbell on Sunday, lining up in base 54% of the time against Miami. I'd be wary of living in base given how offenses are desperate to attack linebackers in coverage this season, but the Lions have been able to make it work over the past month against teams featuring the likes of Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Justin Jefferson.

Are there elements of what they've done over the past three games that won't stick? Sure. The Lions have allowed offenses to convert on only 33% of their trips to the red zone over that span, with just three touchdowns on nine drives inside the 20. Offenses have missed three short field goals against them over that stretch, too, including a 38-yarder off the uprights from Zane Gonzalez in Miami on Sunday. That kick wouldn't have swung the Dolphins game, but two misses from Trey Smack (one of which was blocked) were the difference in the Lions' 20-17 win over Green Bay in Week 7.

And of course, the Lions don't have to be a top-10 defense the rest of the way to be threatening. While their offense hasn't played lights-out football over the past month, we know they have the ceiling to be the best offense in the league on any given week. Coordinator Drew Petzing has been able to build a more consistent version of the offense than we saw a year ago, with the Lions jumping from 15th to fifth in success rate. They're also fifth in both explosive play rate and EPA per offensive snap.

While the Bears and Packers are explosive, you could argue that the Lions are a more consistent and stable offense from week to week. If you combine that with a defense that is showing real signs of improvement, the Lions should feel like they belong as the team to beat in the NFC North.

Jahmyr Gibbs goes untouched for a Lions TD

Green Bay Packers (6-3)

The case: They're the most complete team in the division.

The Bears and Lions have great offenses and improved defenses, but those stories require ignoring early-season games where their defenses were a mess. The Vikings, meanwhile, have the league's best defense, but they can't sustain anything on offense. All three are great, but there are real questions to ask about what their ceiling looks like on one side of the ball.

There are no qualifiers needed for the Packers, though. Through nine weeks, they're ninth in EPA per play on offense and 10th on defense, making Matt LaFleur's team the only one in the North to rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball so far this season. And they're doing that on defense without Micah Parsons, who should be back from his torn ACL in the weeks to come, giving the Packers a true superstar on defense.

It has been a group effort for the Packers on defense, one where we've seen great weeks from individual players as opposed to a bunch of players leveling up. The secondary has been the strength, with third-year safety Evan Williams taking another step toward the Pro Bowl this season. He came up with his third interception of the season on Sunday against New England on a tipped pass.

The player who tipped that pass has also gotten off to a promising start. General manager Brian Gutekunst didn't have a first-round round pick this year after the Parsons trade, so his first shot at addressing a weakness from the 2025 team came in the second round. There, the Packers went after a much-needed outside cornerback by drafting Brandon Cisse. The South Carolina product has had some rough snaps, which is true for just about every rookie cornerback, but Cisse has gotten better as the season has gone along and rounded into form as a fine starter.

This week, Cisse broke up that pass with a tip to Williams for an interception, with Next Gen Stats crediting the rookie for just two catches and 11 yards allowed against the Pats. Two weeks ago against the Lions, he came up with a critical tackle for a loss on Jahmyr Gibbs on a screen and then had a two-play sequence in which he broke up would-be touchdown passes to Jameson Williams in the end zone, including a heads-up play where Cisse pushed Williams out of bounds after he made a catch.

Up front, it has been a group project. Lukas Van Ness has flashed more upside while staying on the field this year after injuries derailed his 2025 campaign. Devonte Wyatt has had his best season as a pro. Star linebacker Edgerrin Cooper had three sacks earlier this year before a torn Achilles sadly ended his season. And Karl Brooks had two sacks on Sunday, beating both of the Patriots guards with interior rushes to blow up plays. All of these guys, Cooper aside, should level up once Parsons returns and draws opposing pass protection attention his way.

And all of this doesn't even touch on Jordan Love, who might be the most fun quarterback in football to watch on a weekly basis. Love's big-game hunting can lead to ugly interceptions when things go wrong, but Sunday's game against the Patriots was an example of just how uniquely dominant he can be at his best. On passes traveling 10 or more yards in the air, Love went 10-of-12 for 294 yards and two touchdowns, showing no remorse as he repeatedly targeted star Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez over the top. The Patriots love to lean into their talent at corner and play man coverage. Love posted a perfect passer rating on 13 dropbacks against man on Sunday, though, averaging nearly 14 yards per throw.

Nobody throws deep more often than Love, who chucks the ball 20 or more yards downfield on 18% of his pass attempts. And while the Packers caught those passes on Sunday, the only thing that's holding Love back from being an even more productive passer is his receivers' hands, which have dropped just under 6% of Love's pass attempts. That's the worst mark in the league so far this season.

Jordan Love drops it to Matthew Golden for a TD

Love's doing all this despite the fact that the Packers have offered nothing even resembling a run game at all in 2026. Through nine weeks, the Packers are last in EPA per rush play and rushing yards per game and 31st in yards per carry and success rate on designed rush attempts. Injuries to their offensive line haven't helped, and the Packers haven't had much of Josh Jacobs, who was on the commissioner exempt list to begin the season and left the win over the Patriots with a finger injury.

Of course, Jacobs was averaging 2.2 yards per carry on his 36 carries this season before suffering the finger injury, so it wasn't like he moved the needle as a runner after his return to the lineup. (He was better as a receiver.) The Packers have experimented with MarShawn Lloyd as their lead runner and turned things over Sunday to Kaleb Johnson, who had 14 carries for 68 yards, including a 34-yard tote to start the fourth quarter, flying past a Gonzalez tackle attempt along the way. Getting anything at all out of the run game -- the occasional explosive, some short-yardage conversions, even a pulse -- would be much-needed assistance for the Packers.

Green Bay can make the strongest case that it'll get better moving forward. Parsons, even if he's limited coming off the knee injury, will give the Packers the star they don't currently have in their front seven. And the run game should regress at least a little bit toward the mean in the weeks to come, if only because NFL teams aren't typically this bad at running the football for any length of time. Those improvements, married with what Love's doing in the passing game, could push the Packers atop the NFC North.

Minnesota Vikings (6-1)

The case: They have a defense capable of stopping these offenses when it matters.

While the Vikings lost to the Lions last week, they held one of the league's best offenses to 19 points on 10 drives. They shut down the Bears, who scored three points before Williams left the game in the fourth quarter with his hamstring injury. The Packers scored 22 points when they played the Vikings in the opener, but Minnesota's defense dominated in the fourth quarter by producing a fourth-and-1 stop in the red zone, a strip-sack that gave the Vikings first-and-goal on the 1-yard line and an interception that set the offense up with another possession starting inside the red zone. This defense has been dominant for three years now and appears to have hit another level in 2026.

I wrote about the defense before the Lions game, and while Detroit had more success running the ball than anyone else has had against Minnesota so far this season, not much has changed. The Vikings still rank at or near the top of most statistical categories on defense. The Bills will be their toughest challenge of the season (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN), especially when you consider the strain that Josh Allen places on a defense and his ability to extend plays before finding holes on the back end. It'll be a fascinating matchup of good-on-good.

The more important thing to watch for the Vikings might be on the other side of the ball, where the team will turn back to Wentz for his second start of the season in place of Kyler Murray. Wentz went 11-of-20 for 143 yards in the Week 2 win over the Bears, struggling to move for most of the game. Wentz has a 48.7 QBR since entering the itinerant phase of his career in 2023. He has taken sacks at an astronomical 11% rate over that span while averaging just over 7 yards per attempt, the sort of combination that doesn't lead to sustainably successful offense across multiple schemes and organizations.

It seems telling that this version of Wentz might still be an upgrade on Murray, who is week-to-week with what the Vikings have called a strained hamstring. Murray was able to finish the loss to the Lions after injuring his hamstring early in the fourth quarter, but even before the issue, accuracy has been a serious problem for the 2019 first overall pick. In fact, 18.3% of his throws have been off-target this season, the sixth-worst rate in the NFL. Those issues have popped up despite the fact that nearly 32% of Murray's throws are at or behind the line of scrimmage, the league's third-highest rate.

Murray just doesn't look confident making the throws that are there. Each of the past two weeks, he has turned down intermediate throws into open windows over the middle of the field and attempted to extend the play, only to take a sack. He has been an effective scrambler, which has been a positive for the Vikings, but Murray has been unable to sustainably move the offense up and down the field on a regular basis. Wentz is more likely to make those throws, but he doesn't offer the ability to create explosives with his legs.

And so, regardless of what happens against the Bills, general manager Nolan Teasley & Co. have a fascinating 48 hours ahead. The Vikings very clearly have a championship-caliber defense. Is there a move to be made ahead of the trade deadline that could push the offense in that direction? Would the Vikings really take a swing on a quarterback like Daniel Jones if he's available? Would they try to upgrade a rushing attack that ranks 27th in EPA per designed rush by trading multiple picks for Jonathan Taylor? Or will one good game from Wentz convince the Vikings that their best option is the guy already on the active roster?

It's difficult to see the Vikings having enough to win the division without some sort of offensive upgrade. But at the same time, I'm not sure who that leaves atop the NFC North moving forward. Is it the Lions, who hope that their defense will fix itself? Is it the Bears, who already made their big move and have top-of-the-market upside on offense? Or is it the Packers, who are about to get their big move back for the second half of the season? As of right now, in my eyes, the race is still too close to call.