How real are the good starts from UConn, Michigan State and Virginia?

• Jeff Borzello

  Close

  

  Jeff Borzello

  ESPN Staff Writer

  • Basketball recruiting insider.
  • Joined ESPN in 2014.
  • Graduate of University of Delaware.
   and 

• Myron Medcalf

  Close

  

  Myron Medcalf

  ESPN Staff Writer

  • Covers college basketball
  • Joined ESPN.com in 2011
  • Graduate of Minnesota State University, Mankato

Nov 12, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

Two weeks into the 2026-27 college basketball season, lessons are already being learned about who the real championship contenders could be and who might be left behind in March. We're figuring out if all of those offseason legal battles are going to have a meaningful effect on the play on the court and which players could take advantage of opportunities to shine. There also might be a few coaches who are already feeling their seats warm after subpar starts.

Of course, it still has been only two weeks, so it's not too early to start separating the pretenders from the contenders. Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf examine some the preseason's most interesting queries and whether the concerns they represent are real or not.

There are only three teams that can win the title

Verdict: Not real

Entering the season, there was the perception that three teams were in a tier of their own when it came to national title contenders: Florida, Duke and Illinois. Florida still has four key players from a team that won the championship in 2025; Duke has arguably its deepest team of the Jon Scheyer era; and Illinois brought back five of its top eight players from a Final Four team.

Two weeks into the season, it looks as if we might have underestimated UConn and Michigan State. Duke and Illinois both lost Tuesday, but both are still very much in the top-tier group. We just might need to wait longer to see them at their best. (There's also an argument that Florida is in a tier by itself, but let's not go down that path just yet.)

UConn has perhaps the best backcourt in college basketball in Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins, while Jayden Ross and Na'jai Hines bring toughness on the defensive end. Nik Khamenia left UConn's win over Wagner because of an injury, but freshman Colben Landrew looks like a potential star. The Huskies also should get back All-Big East guard Solo Ball, who was initially expected to sit out the season because of a wrist injury.

Michigan State will have one of the elite defenses this season, as evidenced by the nightmarish night Duke had in the Champions Classic. The Spartans are big, physical, connected and have game-changers on the defensive end, namely Jordan Scott. They also have the best point guard in Jeremy Fears Jr., who Scheyer said Tuesday night "controlled the whole game."

Kansas might not be far from the title tier, either, especially if the Jayhawks can stay healthy and eligible. Tyran Stokes is a star, Trey Kaufman-Renn adds a different dimension to the offense and Tre White was fantastic against Kentucky. They can score in the half court or in transition, are unselfish and create mismatches. If White and Kaufman-Renn stay eligible, Bill Self has a Final four contender. -- Borzello

This season's freshmen won't be as impactful as last season

Verdict: Real

Last season's freshman class was the best to grace college basketball in a long time -- perhaps ever. Cameron Boozer swept the player of the year awards. AJ Dybantsa and Darius Acuff Jr. joined him as first-team All-Americans. Caleb Wilson might have also found himself in that group had he not sustained an injury. Keaton Wagler and Kingston Flemings were among the 10 or 15 best players in the sport. Brayden Burries was the leading scorer for 1-seed Arizona. We haven't even mentioned Darryn Peterson or Mikel Brown, who showed incredible flashes despite availability questions for much of the season. Nate Ament, Ebuka Okorie, Hannes Steinbach ... the list goes on.

It was always going to be difficult for the next freshman class to match those credentials -- and that already is playing out with inconsistent showings. Kansas' Stokes showed why he's the No. 1 prospect against Kentucky, with 23 points and an advanced offensive skill set. But a game earlier, he had only eight points. Jordan Smith Jr. is averaging 14 points for Arkansas after scoring three points against Robert Morris. Arizona's Caleb Holt really struggled against UCLA (seven points on 2-for-7 shooting) before scoring 21 against Cal Poly and 17 against Northern Arizona. Missouri's Jason Crowe Jr. has had predictably high usage, taking at least 16 shots in all three games, and he followed up a poor performance against Saint Louis (3-for-18) with 34 points against SIU Edwardsville. Bruce Branch III is averaging 14 points through three games for BYU.

There are bright spots, of course. Illinois' Quentin Coleman looks like a top-10 pick, and West Virginia's Miles Sadler has been one of the most productive point guards in the country. But in general, the star power and consistency of last season's top freshmen just hasn't been there so far. -- Borzello

The best NBA prospects in college basketball will declare for the 2027 draft

Grambling Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns: Game Highlights

Verdict: Not real

It's becoming increasingly obvious that the three college basketball players with the best long-term NBA potential won't be eligible for June's NBA draft.

UCLA's Nikola Kusturica, Duke's Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and Texas' Marcus Spears Jr. will all still be 17 years old when the season ends and have to spend next season in college as well. But all three have shown why they were so intriguing.

Kusturica might be the best NBA prospect in the world, particularly after his performance against North Florida last week: 29 points, 10-for-12 shooting, six rebounds, three assists, two blocks and one steal. In the opener against Arizona, he totaled five blocks and five steals to go with nine points and five boards. He also had 17 points against Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Wednesday. The Serbian forward is 6-foot-9 with plenty of toughness.

Boumtje Boumtje, who played in Barcelona's system last season, is 7-2 with consistent shooting range beyond the 3-point line. He opened eyes with 19 points in an exhibition game against Belmont, then had 15 points, seven rebounds and three blocks in the regular-season opener against Army. Boumtje Boumtje hasn't quite replicated that hot start, struggling against Michigan State, but few players in the country can match his combination of size and skill.

And then there's Spears, who was the No. 1 prospect in the Class of 2027 before reclassifying into 2026 in July. The Texas forward has scored in double figures in all three games so far, despite coming off the bench. He's averaging 12 points on 62% shooting in just over 20 minutes.

All three are only going to get better as the season progresses -- and should be dominant forces in 2027-28. -- Borzello

The extra eligibility players have shifted the hierarchy of college basketball

Verdict: Real-ish

Entering the season, the sport was inundated by court cases and decisions by judges that reshaped rosters around the country. The naysayers -- including the NCAA -- claimed the addition of players seeking a fifth and even sixth year of eligibility would create unfair advantages for the 2026-27 teams that could attract the players who were legally cleared to play.

Although it's early, the players who were not eligible for the NCAA's new five-for-five rule have already left their collective mark on some of the top teams in America, beginning with St. John's standout Keyshawn Hall. The former Auburn star is averaging 19.5 points for Rick Pitino's undefeated team. Combined with the effort of European prospect Quinn Ellis, no team has benefited from court and NCAA waivers more than the Red Storm.

With Denzel Aberdeen returning after a one-year stint at Kentucky, Florida has made nearly 40% of its 3-pointers. Why does that matter? Because subpar 3-point shooting -- 6-for-19 from beyond the arc -- doomed the Gators in an NCAA tournament second-round loss to Iowa last season. If Aberdeen's return improves this team's ability to connect from the perimeter, it will give the Gators an edge.

Donovan Dent is averaging 8.3 assists for LSU. And Self said the passing ability of former Purdue star Kaufman-Renn has changed the way Kansas plays. Malik Reneau is averaging 11 points for Miami, and Seth Trimble is averaging 12 for Louisville.

Yet, if you take a good look at the top-25 rankings, how much different would those teams be without the players who've secured additional eligibility? Some of the most anticipated additions aren't dominant factors. In college basketball, the already-talented teams that acquired big-name transfers got deeper. But thus far, it feels like the equivalent of the best NBA teams adding strong veterans at the trade deadline more than a complete rearrangement of the status quo. -- Medcalf

Virginia is a Final Four sleeper

Bucknell Bison vs. Virginia Cavaliers: Game Highlights

Verdict: Real

Did you know Virginia won 30 games last season? More than Iowa State, Illinois or Florida. Does anyone remember that?

It was a quiet run for Ryan Odom in his first season, but Virginia deserved more preseason buzz as a potential Final Four team this season. The Cavaliers returned the nucleus of last season's group, including preseason ACC Player of the Year Thijs De Ridder.

Sunday's 91-72 win over Arkansas, who is led by projected lottery pick Jordan Smith Jr., also should have opened some eyes. Virginia registered 134 points per 100 possessions in that win, and the Cavaliers have held opposing teams under a 50% shooting clip inside the arc. This is one of the most balanced teams in America and should be in the Final Four contenders conversation. -- Medcalf

Kharchenkov is a player of year threat

Verdict: Real

The biggest early-season breakout has come from Tucson, where sophomore forward Ivan Kharchenkov is backing up his offseason buzz. Kharchenkov, of Germany, excelled in his role as the third or fourth option on a 36-win Arizona team that won the Big 12 and reached the Final Four last season. With three starters gone from that group, though, coach Tommy Lloyd needed Kharchenkov to take a step forward, particularly on offense.

He has taken a giant leap.

Kharchenkov opened the season with 38 points and 10 rebounds in a loss to UCLA, going 12-for-20 from the field and getting to the free throw line 16 times. He followed that with 16 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and four steals against Cal Poly, then 20 points, seven rebounds and seven assists against Northern Arizona, going 7-for-10 from the field. The 6-foot-7 Kharchenkov was already one of the elite defenders in college basketball, and now he's using that size and strength to overpower defenders and create matchup problems.

I think Kharchenkov will remain in the player of the year discussion, even if Arizona gets a fifth year of eligibility for Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey. If Godfrey is able to suit up for the Wildcats, Kharchenkov is probably going to be the most productive player on a top-five team. If Godfrey doesn't get to play, Lloyd will need Kharchenkov to continue putting up his absurd early-season numbers. Either way, he's not going anywhere -- except the NBA draft lottery. -- Borzello

Mark Pope's run at Kentucky will be short

Verdict: Real

There are only three emotions within the fan base that backs the winningest program in Division I history: happy, disappointed and angry. After Kentucky's 20-point loss to Kansas at the Champions Classic -- fueled by Stokes, who committed to Kansas over Kentucky -- UK fans were angry. Maybe even furious. But Kansas will win a lot of games against a lot of good teams this season. That loss is not a crime.

But five minutes into the second half of Tuesday's loss, the nation's top transfer Milan Momcilovic had taken only three shots. He's making as much money in NIL as Yaxel Lendeborg, the former Michigan star and NBA rookie of the year contender. But he's not getting the ball at the United Center in a nationally televised game against a title contender?

Offensive challenges in that loss led to questions about Pope's scheme, but those are fixable. The bigger concerns scrutinized the group he has assembled. When adversity hit, Zoom Diallo ran a lot of plays for himself, and when he wasn't committing bad fouls, Malachi Moreno looked as if he were at an NBA tryout for all the NBA scouts and executives in attendance.

It's early but it's also possible that Pope might have assembled a team that's not prepared to compete with the best teams in America. And if that's the case, the rumors about his job security will intensify in the months ahead. -- Medcalf

The 3-point revolution is making the game more dynamic

Verdict: Not real

Over the past decade, one trend has been undeniable: Teams are taking more 3-pointers. A lot more. During the 2015-16 season, only 16 teams took at least 45% of their field goal attempts from beyond the 3-point line. Last season, 71 teams reached that threshold. Though it's early in the season, 104 teams have reached that mark, including an Alabama squad that has taken 127 3-point attempts in its first three games.

College basketball's greatest gift is the diversity of skills, players, schemes and coaching styles. That reality might not last much longer if teams have decided to launch 40 3-pointers per game, instead of working more inside and at midrange.

If the early games are any indication of what's ahead, college basketball could see more records shattered for 3-point attempts in a season and mark a setback for the multidimensional basketball the college game has always offered. -- Medcalf