How Israel's President will try to break the country's elections deadlock

When Shabbat ends on Saturday evening, Israel will brace itself for the next step in the fraught path to forming its next government after last month’s elections were inconclusive.

The next step gives Israeli President Isaac Herzog an unusually significant and potentially very controversial task: to choose which politician has the first opportunity to form a government. Expectations are that it will go to Gadi Eisenkot, who, after a week of consultations hosted by the President with factions in the new Knesset, received the most recommendations, at 67 of 120 Knesset members.

The choice of Mr Eisenkot is not certain. Mr Herzog has discretion, a variable that makes it probably the most important decision an Israeli president will face – far more dramatic than the usual welcoming of foreign dignitaries to a sprawling Jerusalem residence and attendance at ceremonies.

Mr Herzog said he will announce his decision on Sunday. It is a critical date, which could have profound consequences for Israel’s future. While the expectation is that Mr Eisenkot gets the first chance, what he does with it and how his ferocious opponents respond could have historic consequences.

The only thing all Israelis agree on is how high the stakes are. In Israel’s opposition, members say their disparate group barely has any time to save Israel with an “emergency” coalition, so that they can start rebuilding its image abroad, a task that became even more critical after the Trump administration’s dismal failure in the US midterms on Tuesday.

To get a majority, they will have to go back on campaign promises. The two most important ones are whether they will strike a deal with the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party. That would probably focus on the community’s deeply controversial exemptions from military service and major government financial benefits they receive, advantages that many opposition leaders promised they would end if they got into government.

Show caption: Gadi Eisenkot, left, and Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Arab…

Even more controversial is the choice of whether to ally with Arab parties. Despite the community receiving a massive 19 seats after a historic turnout, many in Israel’s opposition, let alone the government, are quick to brand the community’s politicians (20 per cent of Israel’s population) as untrustworthy, even traitors, rather than partners in what is supposed to be the only democracy in the Middle East.

If Mr Eisenkot goes down that route, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters will have more fuel for the conspiracy they are pushing that elections were stolen by a foreign-funded campaign to get out the Arab vote, an allegation that loyalists inside the Israeli security system are also helping to build, according to the opposition. Israel’s Central Elections Committee has consistently said that the result of the vote is valid, despite the claims of many in Mr Netanyahu’s camp.

Show caption: Right-wing protesters hold pictures of Benjamin Netanyahu du…

These and many others are scenarios that will be going through Mr Herzog’s mind over Shabbat. He wants unity after four years of unprecedented division during the Netanyahu coalition. The process he is now stewarding could bring the opposition, particularly if it drags on for months, which it easily could.

What happens on Sunday?

Mr Herzog chooses a member of the Knesset to form a government. That person then has 28 days to form a coalition. If it is Mr Eisenkot, he will launch into a frantic month in which he tries to cobble together a majority, while Mr Netanyahu, one of the most experienced politicians on the planet, will use all his skills to scupper the process. Expect a constant stream of media reports about progress and setbacks, and an increasingly loud and conspiratorial barrage of criticism from the right-wing opposition. Mr Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister until a government is formed, and many are also worried that he might try to create a security emergency. Tensions with Iran, for example, remain extremely high.

If there is no progress after 28 days, Mr Herzog can grant an extension of 14 days.

The President decides whether to give another candidate 28 days to try to form a government, this time with no possibility of an extension. This could well be Mr Netanyahu’s moment. The President can also decide whether to tell the Speaker of the Knesset that he sees no possibility of anyone forming a government, in which case Israel has new elections. He also has the opportunity to hold more consultations with factions in the Knesset.

At least 61 Knesset members can nominate a particular candidate to try to form a government, with that person’s consent, within 21 days. That candidate has 14 days to try to form a government. If that fails, Israel has new elections.