Has Europe reached peak right-wing populism?

Europe may have passed the high point of popularity for far-right populism, polls have suggested, with the extreme political movements possibly entering a period of stagnation.

Political analysts have suggested that it is more likely the end of the “first great political wave” of the largely far-right “insurgency” rather than an outright reversal of its standing.

In Britain, for the first time in two years, the Conservatives have overtaken Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform party in the last two opinion polls, marking a possible turning point.

Reform’s national standing has been undermined by a series of scandals over funding and racism over the summer, alongside Mr Farage’s inability to provide a convincing response.

Show caption: Nigel Farage's Reform party in the UK has been undermined by…

The latest More in Common poll this week found Labour on 28 per cent, but the Conservatives five points ahead of Reform on 25 per cent. This followed another poll that put the Tories a point ahead of Reform.

“The non-stop accumulation of revelations of financial scandals and racism by elected Reform representatives has impacted heavily,” said political commentator Andrew Murray. “That has made Farage look shady, dodgy and thin-skinned, and makes Reform look less and less like a potential governing party.”

Europe’s populist right has also taken a significant blow after the setback for the Make America Great Again movement after the Republicans’ disastrous performance in the US midterms last week.

A key test arrives later this month when Spain, which has had a minority left-wing government for eight years, goes to the polls. The populist right, in the shape of the Vox Party, is seeking a foothold in government for the first time, showing it can remain one of the significant forces in the national political debate.

Show caption: Santiago Abascal, leader of the Spanish far-right Vox Party,…

Its leader, Santiago Abascal, has moved away ⁠from US President Donald Trump, telling reporters he was "in Spain and not in Michigan".

"I care quite little about what happens in other places," said Mr Abascal, reversing a previous affinity with Mr Trump and language of the Maga movement.

Populist Europe

The continent’s populists are by no means a spent force but have been roiled by the Trump losses on top of last month’s victory by the student movement in Serbia to overturn the rule of Aleksandar Vucic, and the defeat of Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party in Hungary earlier this year.

Marine Le Pen, of the hard-right National Rally party, is favourite to become France’s next leader after the 2027 presidential election. The AfD hardliners in Germany have also become a major parliamentary force.

Show caption: Marine Le Pen, a far-right Rassemblement National candidate …

The Authoritarian Populism Index, which maps ideological trends in 31 European democracies, found in a report last month that 32 per cent of voters supported populist, authoritarian or extremist parties on the left and right combined. Those parties were also taking part, largely in coalition form, in 11 national governments.

“If you look across the European political landscape there's still strong support for insurgent right-wing parties,” said Mr Murray, a former Labour leadership adviser.

Trump impact

The repudiation of Trumpism in America has created a problem for Reform. “Farage tied himself very closely to Trump, and that's been a millstone for a long time,” said Mr Murray.

It could also affect similar parties in Europe, he added. “The far right across Europe has drawn massive strength from Trump, but the fact that the Trump Maga project has been so massively repudiated damages them because having the most powerful country in the world behind you has been an enormous asset.”

Show caption: US President Donald Trump listens as Nigel Farage speaks dur…

Prof Tony Travers, of the London School of Economics, also said that a key lesson from the recent US midterms was that the “spectacular” amount spent by Republicans, estimated at $12 billion, meant that “money in politics didn’t work”.

That was “a salutary lesson for Reform”, which recently received £72 million ($95.28 million) from two donors – an enormous amount by British political standards. “You can't buy votes in these democracies, it would appear, and that is the big lesson from what happened in the midterms,” Prof Travers said.

But David Jones, a former Conservative minister who now represents Reform in Wales, said that the US had very little impact on Britain, adding: “And of course, you'll have noted that Farage has, in fact, criticised Trump on two or three occasions recently."

Reform or Restore?

Reform is also being squeezed by the even harder-right Restore Britain party, which sits on six per cent of the vote. Much of that support comes from those disillusioned with Mr Farage for moving away from the extremes – a necessary move if he is to attract more Conservative voters.

However, it may yet be that Reform has simply had a bad summer and autumn, while Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s forthright leadership style has appealed to voters, said Prof Travers.

Reform has also yet to persuade voters that it can evolve from a largely anti-immigration protest movement into a credible party of national government.

But Mr Jones called it “only a poll” and said that when the general election happened, “people will focus far more on Reform’s issues”, such as immigration and the economy.

Show caption: Leader of the UK Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch. Getty Im…

He also pointed to Reform’s huge success in May’s local elections, when it won more than 1,400 seats in English councils, taking control of 14, and went from none to 34 seats in Wales, which was a third of the Welsh parliament total.

The Tories might also be recovering from their chaotic period of post Brexit leadership and the hammering at the last election.

“The Conservatives clearly did catastrophically badly in 2024, and the electorate clearly were going to take some time to be convinced that the Conservatives are worth looking at again,” said Prof Travers.

But voters may now be “willing to give the Conservatives another look”, coinciding with a “bad year for Reform”.

Forever moderate

Given how broadly divided the right is – splitting almost half the vote between the Conservatives, Reform and Restore - there is speculation that Prime Minister Andy Burnham might call an election in spring next year, before the Conservatives could become too strong.

“That would be in a time when it becomes not so rosy for Andy and politics goes back to a two-party situation that becomes a lottery for him,” said a Tory source. “We are getting ready for it.”

Prof Travers also highlighted the rapid decline in the radical left, represented by the Green Party, alongside waning support for the far right, suggesting that Britain’s long-established democratic instincts ultimately do not stomach radicalism.

“It's a salutary reminder that most people in Britain, with their very long established politics, see themselves as centrists, moderates. They may send out signals to vote for parties on the radical right or on the left periodically, but overwhelmingly by instinct, most of them are just right or just left of centre.”