Halloween gets pricier as chocolate costs climb — Hershey may feel the pinch

Albany Times Union/hearst Newspapers | Hearst Newspapers | Getty Images

Halloween shopping got costlier this year as higher prices hit everything from the candy bowl to the pumpkin on your front porch.

It's not only rough on consumers, but may also hit companies like Hershey.

Americans are expected to spend $13.5 billion on Halloween, up from last year's record $13.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. 

"Consumers continue to make Halloween a spending priority, but they are also approaching the season with affordability in mind," said Allison Zeller, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights.

Inflation is rippling through everything from candy to costumes. Pumpkins are costlier too. The average retail price reached $5.36 this year, up 11% from September 2020, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Drought reduced yields by roughly 30% to 40% in parts of Texas, a major pumpkin-growing state.

Candy and chocolate

Candy remains one of the biggest expenses this Halloween and prices increases are running ahead of broader food inflation, though the rate of increase has slowed. 

Candy and chewing gum prices were up 7.7% in September from a year earlier, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data. The sugar-and-sweets category increased 5.5% over the same period. Adverse weather, including the impact of El Niño, tightened the outlook for sugar supply. Unusually wet conditions disrupted Brazil's sugarcane harvest, while drought and other weather extremes affected production in other major growing regions.

"As Halloween swiftly approaches, candy stands out in the grocery store as one of the more expensive categories, relative to prices last year," food economist Richard Volpe wrote on LinkedIn. "In past years, this has left me swimming with candy," he added. "As I write this, Halloween is days away and I have a paltry three bags of candy sitting on my desk."

Nielsen IQ Early Market data showed Halloween candy sales down 11.7% through September 19. Four weeks later, the decline narrowed to 6.7%, with chocolate at -7.2% and confection at -5.3%, according to the report.

Chocolate so far has been the most vulnerable, especially after a disruption in cocoa supply in West Africa, which was hit by poor growing conditions in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. A potential El Niño and dry Harmattan trade winds could put pressure on the 2026-27 West African cocoa crop.

There was some relief in commodity markets after cocoa prices fell sharply from its historic highs, according to David Branch, sector manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

But that drop has yet to translate into cheaper chocolates.

Wells Fargo Agri-Food estimates chocolate prices will be about 8% higher than last Halloween, with effective transaction prices rising roughly 5% to 8% after promotions. Much of the chocolate on shelves this Halloween was produced using cocoa bought six to 12 months earlier.

"The worst of the cocoa crisis has passed, but price relief hasn't reached store shelves yet," Branch told CNBC. "For chocolate manufacturers, the principal 2026 issue is no longer simply cocoa availability. It is the timing mismatch between falling futures, high-cost inventories, retailer negotiations, and consumer elasticity."

Halloween chocolate dollar sales were down 7.2% from a year earlier through the nine weeks ended Oct. 17, according to NIQ, with weakness in milk chocolate leading the decline. 

NIQ estimates Halloween chocolate sales to be down $33.1 million from last year, with milk chocolate accounting for a $34.4 million decline. Dark chocolate, meanwhile, gained $2.3 million. Overall Halloween candy, gum and mint sales were down 6.7%. 

To help juice sales, retailers are offering discounts — Walmart and Target have flash deals and heavy discounts on items from candy to Halloween costumes.

Candy shoppers, meanwhile, appear to be moving toward smaller packages. Small candy packs of nine ounces or less are up 24% in dollar terms and 14% in units, while every larger package size is declining, according to NIQ. 

Wells Fargo expects shoppers to increasingly favor value packs and alternatives that use less cocoa, including gummies, sour candy, wafers and caramel.

"Consumers will continue buying candy, but shopping baskets are likely to contain fewer chocolate pieces, more value packs, and a greater share of gummies, sour products, wafers, caramel, and other lower-cocoa alternatives," Branch said.

Hershey stock was rising on Friday as consumers ditched AI stocks for safer consumer staples. But analysts see trouble brewing for the candy maker.

The company, which reported third quarter results on Thursday, lowered its 2026 organic sales growth forecast to 3% (from 3%-3.5%). That implies "flattish" organic growth in the fourth quarter, according to Jefferies analyst Scott Marks

Hershey's commentary was "incrementally cautious," he added in a note, saying "consumer and cost pressures" are weighing on the near-term outlook.

"We're looking at areas like in convenience as you see a consumer that's under pressure to give more value and drive pricing through bespoke promotions versus overall price decreases," Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner told analysts on an earnings call.

Marks cut his price target on the stock to $170, joining cuts at brokerages such as DA Davidson, BNP Paribas, Bernstein and Deutsche Bank. Consensus estimates for 2027 earnings fell 3.7% to $9.49 a share, according to FactSet.

CNBC's Alex Harring contributed to the reporting.