Fossil fuel emissions fall due to Iran war and renewables, research shows

Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on Nov. 3. The strait's closure played a role in driving emissions down. | REUTERS

Nov 10, 2026

Antalya, Turkey – Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall slightly in 2026 due to the expansion of renewable energy and the oil price shock sparked by the Iran war, researchers said Tuesday.

Emissions from the burning of oil, gas and coal — the main drivers of climate change — rose by 0.9% per year, on average, in the past decade, hitting a record high in 2025, according to the Global Carbon Budget report.

But they are expected to drop by 0.4% in 2026, according to the research, published as nations meet at the U.N.’s COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey.

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