Dr. Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the United States and deputy minister in the Prime Minister's Office, spoke to 103FM about US President Donald Trump's announcement regarding the termination of American military aid to Israel.
Addressing the announcement, Oren said: "This is happening about two years before the memorandum of understanding between us and Obama expires, so Trump has moved up the timetable. He said it was based on Prime Minister Netanyahu's recommendation."
According to Oren, the decision is also connected to the American political climate.
"This is part of the election campaign. After all, military aid to Israel has become a central issue, at least in Democratic campaigns," he said.
Referring to Trump's intention to end military assistance ahead of schedule, Oren added: "Trump threw something out there, whether a trial balloon or a bombshell. Nevertheless, I have been saying for a long time that we need to prepare for the possibility of such an end to aid."
Oren warns Israel cannot rely on continued US military assistance
Oren stressed that Israel cannot assume it has another decade to transition from American military aid to a strategic partnership.
"We are talking as though we have another ten years to move from aid to partnership, but we do not, because this is not our timetable, it is theirs," he said.
"Who knows whether the Democrats will take control of one chamber of Congress, or both? They have already voted in the past to end military aid, and that could eventually lead to the termination of intelligence assistance and other forms of cooperation."
Oren also emphasized Israel's strategic importance to the United States, arguing that reducing its military capabilities would ultimately undermine American interests.
"I have been saying for years that we are a Jewish state, not Sweden or Luxembourg, so there is no strategic logic in this position," he argued.
"The United States has one ally that is willing to fight shoulder to shoulder with it. There is one country that significantly enhances America's security capabilities through its technology, and it is located in the most sensitive place in the world."
"Who would want to reduce that country's ability to help the Americans and contribute to US security?" he asked.
American Jewish influence and changing political dynamics
Addressing the influence of American Jewish communities compared with Muslim communities in the United States, Oren pointed to demographic and political changes.
"The Muslim population in a key state like Michigan is larger than the Jewish population there," he explained.
"In addition, one-third of Jews in New York voted for Mamdani, and AIPAC is in the crosshairs of every politician in the United States. It is far from being the largest and wealthiest lobby in Washington."
Oren expressed surprise at the possibility of an immediate termination of American military assistance, particularly while Israel is engaged in war.
"Who does something as concrete as immediately stopping aid, especially in the middle of a war?" he asked.
"I can understand an arrangement in which Trump supports Netanyahu in exchange for him not launching a war before the midterm elections, but an agreement to give up military aid in exchange for an endorsement?"
He also highlighted the diplomatic importance of American support, particularly at the United Nations.
"They are also our political and diplomatic Iron Dome at the UN, because who will cast a veto the next time someone tries to impose sanctions on Israel through the Security Council?" he asked.
"I have been calling for years for an end to military aid in favor of transforming that assistance into a partnership."
China is a red line for Washington, Oren warns
Asked about the possibility of replacing American military production with Chinese alternatives, Oren warned that such a move would cross a clear American red line.
"That is crossing a red line as far as the Americans are concerned," he said.
"I sat in meetings with several administrations that told us, 'Either us or the Chinese. You cannot have both.'"
Oren also discussed his initial opposition to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) governing American military assistance to Israel, arguing that the agreement involved significant opportunity costs.
"One of the reasons I initially opposed the MOU was the loss of opportunities, because there are opportunity costs," he explained.
"We could not choose everything we wanted to buy, because there were things we requested."
"For years, I asked that we purchase B-1 or B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles, but they told us no," Oren said.
"On the other hand, when we wanted to sell something to China, we got slapped down."
Follow us on GoogleSource: The Jerusalem Post · 103FM
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