Europeans ministers left cautious over Hormuz after G7 briefings

Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman made an unscheduled stop on Tuesday to meet European and Saudi counterparts on the sidelines of a G7 gathering in Paris, raising hopes that an escalation in the Iran war may yet be avoided.

The visit has been interpreted as a sign that a diplomatic solution to the Iran-US war may be on track and was positively received by G7 observers, The National understands. Sheikh Mohammed updated France, the UK, Germany, Italy and Saudi Arabia on his talks earlier this week in Washington with US President Donald Trump.

It was the two leaders’ first face-to-face meeting since Mr Trump’s Republican party suffered major losses in last week’s midterm elections, which the President blamed on the Iran war. Qatar is the main mediator between Iran and the US.

During the meeting in Paris, which lasted for less an hour, ministers focused on the Iran crisis and its “security and economic repercussions, both for the region and for the international community as a whole”, French diplomatic sources said.

Show caption: From left, UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband, Saudi Arabia's …

France Jean-Noel Barrot hosted the meeting in the presence of Germany’s Johann Wadephul, the UK’s Ed Miliband, Italy’s Antonio Tajani and Saudi Arabia’s Prince Faisal bin Farhan, all foreign ministers.

Iran crisis

Saudi Arabia had already been invited as a guest to the two-day G7 meeting that started on Monday. A planned meeting devoted to the Middle East with Egypt's Badr Abdelatty, also present as a guest, went ahead after the last-minute talks with Qatar.

The US, the UK, Italy, Canada, Japan, France, and Germany make up the G7.

The unannounced visit by Sheikh Mohammed, who is also the Foreign Minister of Qatar, comes after Mr Trump appeared to backtrack on his threats to strike Iran after the midterms. Qatar's message to the Americans has been to avoid such a scenario.

Speaking on Monday after his meeting with Sheikh Mohammed, Mr Trump said a resumption of military action against Iran was “quite unlikely” for now, while warning that Washington remained “locked and loaded” if developments in the Middle East changed.

It remains unclear which path Mr Trump will ultimately choose. Pete Hegseth, the Pentagon chief, is a major proponent of overseas military campaigns.

Europeans are not directly involved in mediation talks but Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has indirectly fuelled social unrest on the continent due to high energy prices. France and the UK have offered to support security in the strait with an international naval mission, but only after the US and Iran have settled on a diplomatic solution.

What also remains unclear is whether Mr Trump will pursue a diplomatic solution with Iran over its nuclear programme, which was among the main reasons invoked for waging war against the country on February 28.

Show caption: Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused energy pr…

Neither the US nor Iran appear willing to make necessary concessions, with Washington wanting Iran to rid itself of nuclear material before sanctions relief, which Tehran says it has no intention of doing. Observers believe both sides will have to make concessions to find a pathway forwards.

Lebanon vacuum

The security situation in south Lebanon, which is embroiled in hostilities between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, was also high on the agenda during talks with Qatar in Paris.

Many fear a security vacuum following the withdrawal of a nearly five-decade old UN mission at the end of the year after the US vetoed the renewal of its mandate last year. France and Italy are leading efforts for a multinational mission with a military component to replace Unifil, but the US is hesitant to endorse it. Meanwhile, time is running out as Unifil's peacekeepers will be leaving from December 31.

Speaking on Monday night, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is in Paris as a G7 member, said: “It doesn't have to be a military mission. It could be a civilian mission.” He confirmed he had discussed Lebanon with G7 counterparts at the start of the two-day meeting on Monday but said the issue remained “sensitive” and “would require the agreement of both the Lebanese and the Israelis in order for it to work”.