Early vote one week out shows Democratic enthusiasm in Texas, Georgia: Analysis

With less than a week to the midterms elections, an ABC News analysis of the early vote in the key states of Texas and Georgia shows signs of more enthusiasm among Democrats, who are getting slightly higher turnout among those who don't vote regularly -- particularly in Texas -- compared to what they got in 2022.

More than 39 million Americans have voted early as of Wednesday afternoon, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida.

Much of the apparent surge in turnout is among voters who likely would have voted later in the pre-election period or on Election Day, the analysis shows. Less-habitual voters who are voting early, while a much smaller number compared to regular voters, appear to be more likely to vote for the Democrat.

The data from voter records firm L2 that ABC News' analysis is based on does not indicate who someone might have voted for and does not say anything about who might yet turn out on Election Day.

The analysis also uses L2's models for whether a voter is likely to vote Democratic or Republican, as neither Texas nor Georgia register voters by party. The modeling uses available information like turnout in primaries and other factors to predict which party people are likely to support.

The early vote in Texas

More than 5 million voters had cast early ballots in Texas as of Wednesday, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, more than 20% of the state’s registered voters.

There are closely watched races for Senate and governor in the Lone Star state; Democrats hope to flip both despite not having won a statewide race since 1994. President Donald Trump rallied there twice on Tuesday and Republicans say the president’s swings through red-leaning states are meant to turn out his base and motivate Republicans who otherwise might have sat out this midterm.

As of Monday, 51% of the early vote in Texas is from voters modeled as likely to vote for Democrats while 45% is from voters modeled as likely to vote for Republicans, the analysis shows -- a 14 percentage point swing for Democrats from 2022 when they were behind Republicans by around 8 percentage points when early voting was finished. Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024.

In Texas, regular voters who voted in four out of the last four federal elections made up a greater share of the turnout as of Monday than they did in the complete early vote in 2024 and 2022, according to the analysis. This doesn’t necessarily mean that more habitual voters have shown up, just that fewer less-regular voters have. The habitual voters make up 60% of the early vote this year, as of Monday; this group made up 47% of the total early vote in 2024 and 44% of the total early vote in 2022

The early vote data shows that Democrats are getting far higher turnout among the less frequent voters in Texas who likely prefer Democrats, in comparison to the less frequent voters who likely prefer Republicans. Whether it be during the remaining days of early voting or on Election Day, Republicans will need to mobilize their less enthusiastic supporters.

Among voters who did not vote in any of the last four federal elections but who have voted early in Texas as of Monday, 64% of them are modeled as likely to vote for a Democrat and 21% as likely to vote for a Republican. In the total early vote in 2022, 50% of these voters were modeled as likely Democratic voters and 39% were estimated to be likely Republican voters.

In the early vote to date, there are far fewer less-habitual voters compared to high-turnout ones and they take up a smaller share of the early vote overall. Still, close elections are decided at the margins and polling in Texas has shown the Senate and governor’s races being close.

The early vote in Georgia

More than 2.1 million voters had cast early ballots in Georgia as of Wednesday morning, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, where the Senate and governor's races are also being closely watched.

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In the Senate race, GOP Rep. Mike Collins is trying to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Democrats are trying to flip the governorship as Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican businessman Rick Jackson in a race both parties see as competitive.

According to ABC News' analysis, 54% of the early vote in Georgia is from voters modeled as likely to vote for Democrats while 38% is from voters modeled as likely to vote for Republicans.

In Georgia, habitual voters who voted in four out of the last four federal elections comprised a greater share of the turnout as of Monday than they did in the early vote one week out from the 2022 midterms.

Habitual voters made up 67% of the early vote in 2026 as of Monday while they comprised 55% of the total early vote one week from Election Day 2022.

Among voters who did not vote in any of the last four federal elections but who have voted early in Georgia as of Monday, 52% of them are modeled as likely to vote for Democrats and 12% are modeled as likely to vote for Republicans. In the early vote at this time in 2022, 51% of those voters were modeled Democratic and 27% were modeled Republican

Meanwhile, among voters who voted in two out of the last four federal elections who had voted early in Georgia as of Monday, 56% are modeled Democratic and 24% Republican. In the early vote at this point in 2022, 54% of those voters were modeled Democratic and 35% Republican.

Early voting ends in both states on Friday.