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A Times analysis and U.S. Geological Survey data indicate that the official 6,509 death toll is probably a severe undercount.

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· 6:18 min

A large pile of building rubble is in the foreground, with several people standing on it. In the background, a crane and excavator are silhouetted against a pink and orange sky.
Volunteers and relatives searching for bodies in the rubble of a public housing complex that collapsed during the twin earthquakes in July.Credit...Adriana Loureiro Fernandez for The New York Times

Oct. 21, 2026

Venezuela’s government says 6,509 people died in the back-to-back earthquakes in June. But calculations from multiple sources, including a New York Times analysis of residential buildings and the U.S. Geological Survey, indicate that this is likely a severe undercount.

For years the U.S.G.S. has used shaking severity, historical data and population distribution to try to estimate deaths after an earthquake. The information is typically more accurate in higher casualty incidents, like this one, said David Wald, a seismologist at the U.S.G.S.

For the Venezuela quakes, the U.S.G.S.’s median estimate is that 53,000 people died — meaning there is a 50 percent chance the actual number is higher than that, and a 50 percent chance it is lower.

The U.S.G.S. also says there is approximately an 81 percent chance that the real number of deaths is higher than 10,000.

One obstacle to calculating a reliable death count in Venezuela is the absence of an up-to-date official government census.

To address that problem, the U.S.G.S. uses a model called LandScan to “age” the most recent census forward in time. The model, developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, also uses independent United Nations figures to refine the estimates. LandScan uses dozens of other variables, including land use, roads and proximity to urban areas to estimate where people are likely to be when the ground shakes.

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Source: The New York Times · James Glanz, Julie Turkewitz, Helmuth Rosales

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World
Country
🇺🇸 US
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EN
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