Coalition talks at a crossroads as Eisenkot, Netanyahu battle for haredi parties

Gadi Eisenkot has intensified efforts in recent days to bring United Torah Judaism (UTJ) into the government he is seeking to form, but informal negotiations remain far from an agreement, primarily over the military conscription law and guarantees demanded by the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties.

At the same time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is working to persuade the haredi parties not to cross over, while Eisenkot is preparing to resume negotiations with Likud during the coming week and hold talks with the Religious Zionist Party.

One of the central issues occupying the haredi parties is the guarantees they would receive that commitments made to them would be honored after the government is sworn in.

The negotiations are taking place against a tight deadline. Eisenkot has approximately three weeks remaining to complete the formation of a government, with the option of requesting an additional 14-day extension from the president.

Within the Eisenkot-led bloc, concerns remain that prolonged negotiations could let Netanyahu derail the effort and force another election.

Members of the Eisenkot-led bloc fear that negotiations and concessions to the haredi parties could become public, only for those parties to return to Netanyahu's camp at the last moment.

On the haredi side, there are concerns that promises to resolve the conscription issue will not be fulfilled because of legal difficulties that may arise after the government is established. They also fear that even if they decide to withdraw from the coalition, the government could remain in office with parliamentary support from the Arab parties.

The Eisenkot-led bloc is aware of the potential public backlash over concessions on the conscription law, particularly if the haredi parties ultimately choose to remain with Netanyahu.

For the haredi parties, the central concern is losing their bargaining power once the government is sworn in, without advance assurances that the conscription arrangement will actually take effect.

Haredi demands include draft exemptions, guarantees against court intervention

The haredi demands have already been outlined in detail.

At a gathering of rabbis held at the home of the son of the Slonim Rebbe, attended by representatives of the Ger and Vizhnitz Hasidic movements and other rabbis, participants discussed the conditions being set by Hasidic figures within Agudat Yisrael for entering negotiations.

Among the demands are the deferment of military service for those whose Torah study is their occupation, a personal commitment from all 48 Knesset members in the Eisenkot-led bloc to legislate an exemption from military service, and a specific override clause that would apply if the High Court of Justice strikes down the law.

The participants also sought clarification on who would have the authority to amend the arrangement after its approval and under what conditions.

A document outlining demands formulated by Hasidic figures also raised the possibility of reaching agreements on general principles while leaving some details for later negotiations, provided a mechanism is established to prevent unilateral changes to the arrangement.

The document also purportedly referred to contacts with the attorney-general concerning the conscription arrangement. However, this does not establish that the attorney-general has approved the proposed framework.

Meanwhile, the haredi parties are demanding an immediate solution to the arrests of draft evaders and sanctions imposed on yeshiva students.

UTJ MK Yakov Asher has set out three main conditions: regularizing the status of yeshiva students, preserving the independence of haredi education, and maintaining the status quo on religion-state matters.

"There is no commitment to blocs," Asher clarified.

The Eisenkot-led bloc is considering a proposal to commit to the haredi parties that, after the government's established, it would suspend enforcement of military conscription, including the arrest of draft evaders, for up to one year by government decision.

During the suspension, the sides would work to formulate an agreed law based on Avigdor Liberman's 2018 proposal, with modifications.

However, the High Court of Justice has previously ruled that the government lacks the authority to suspend conscription enforcement solely through an administrative decision.

An alternative would be to enact temporary legislation allowing enforcement to be suspended during the interim period, but that approach also faces legal obstacles.

During discussions on previous legislation aimed at suspending the arrests of draft evaders, the IDF opposed removing arrest and enforcement powers against all draft evaders, fearing that doing so would undermine its ability to enforce the Defense Service Law.

At this stage, no agreement has been reached on a legal solution that would allow enforcement to be suspended while providing the haredi parties with the guarantees they are demanding.

The possibility of passing a law exempting yeshiva students from military service before the government is sworn in appears particularly limited, given the time required for the legislative process and the legal difficulties involved.

The haredi parties want tangible concessions before committing to join a government, while Eisenkot needs their support to establish one.

Haredi rabbinical leadership divided over possible agreement

Several centers of power operate within the haredi leadership, and their positions are not necessarily identical.

Rabbi Moshe Hillel Hirsch, a leading figure in the Lithuanian haredi community, has authorized representatives to begin negotiations with the Eisenkot-led bloc. However, he made clear that his first priority is resolving the legal status of yeshiva students, even before budgetary demands.

"I don't see it as very realistic that we will be able to reach agreements with Eisenkot, but if we do, we can go with Eisenkot," Rabbi Hirsch said.

For months, a channel of communication has operated between haredi figures, including David Shapira and Motty Babchik, a close associate of the Ger Rebbe, and Liberman representatives.

The contacts have focused on the conscription legislation Liberman proposed in 2018 and the possibility of modifying it.

Within Agudat Yisrael, competing centers of influence also exist, including representatives of the major Hasidic movements, who want to ensure any political agreement receives rabbinical backing and includes explicit commitments.

A decision on whether UTJ will join the government will require the approval of the rabbinical leadership of its constituent factions and will not be determined solely through negotiations among Knesset members.

Liberman opposes reliance on Ra'am as coalition arithmetic complicates negotiations

Disagreements also persist within the Eisenkot-led bloc.

Liberman has withdrawn his principled objection to serving in a government alongside the haredi parties but remains opposed to a government dependent on Ra'am.

One option under consideration is to form a government with UTJ and then try to bring Shas into the coalition. However, Shas leader Arye Deri's position remains unclear.

UTJ has also not publicly agreed to join a government without Shas. If it insists that both haredi factions join together, the plan to establish a government in stages could stall.

Naftali Bennett, for his part, is promoting the "Those Who Serve Law" and has not publicly presented a detailed position on the conscription compromises under consideration.

Yair Golan does not rule out relying on the Arab parties, while Liberman opposes such an arrangement.

The numbers illustrate the difficulty.

The original plan considered by Eisenkot's associates involved swearing in a 48-member minority government, replacing Netanyahu and then allowing the coalition to expand.

Liberman has announced that he would oppose the establishment of such a government.

Bringing UTJ into the coalition would increase the planned government's membership to 55 MKs, six short of a Knesset majority.

Such a government would still require outside support or abstentions by additional factions in the confidence vote.

If the government's swearing-in requires Ra'am to abstain, Liberman could derail the effort even after agreements with the haredi parties are reached.

The hope is that Shas or Likud MKs willing to break away from their faction could join later.

That path also depends on UTJ agreeing to join independently and on the ability to reach a conscription arrangement acceptable to the Eisenkot-led bloc's partners.

Yair Lapid warned against the failure of the negotiations, saying: "It would be madness if a government is not formed. It would be an unforgivable act of national irresponsibility."

Eisenkot prepares to renew Likud talks while setting conditions for coalition partners
Formal negotiations on Eisenkot's behalf are being conducted by Ronen Manelis, Yoav Horowitz, and Yoram Turbowicz, alongside personal meetings Eisenkot is holding with party leaders.

So far, Eisenkot is known to have met personally with leaders of parties in the Eisenkot-led bloc. It is not known whether he has personally met with the leaders of the haredi parties.

Eisenkot has already approached Knesset factions willing to accept the four fundamental principles he has established.

He intends to resume negotiations with Likud during the coming week and hold discussions with the Religious Zionist Party, but not with Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party.

Eisenkot's associates assess that the likelihood of Likud joining a government headed by him is low, while members of the Eisenkot-led bloc oppose serving in a government led by Netanyahu.

Liberman and Golan have already made clear that they would not join such a government.

A planned negotiating meeting with Likud was canceled after Netanyahu's speech in the Knesset, and Eisenkot instructed his team to resume contact the following week.

Eisenkot has established four fundamental principles for joining a government under his leadership: recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, acceptance of the values of the Declaration of Independence, mandatory service for every citizen, whether military, national, or civilian, and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization alongside a commitment to dismantling its military and governing capabilities.

The mandatory service principle could become another point of contention in negotiations with the haredi parties, which are seeking legislation to regulate the status of yeshiva students.

Eisenkot has not yet publicly detailed the extent of the compromises he would accept on conscription, nor has he presented an agreed framework with the haredi parties.

Netanyahu seeks to preserve haredi alliance and block Eisenkot government
Netanyahu is working directly with Deri and Asher, warning that the haredi parties could find themselves in a government that fails to honor its commitments but that they would be unable to bring it down.

Netanyahu held a lengthy late-night meeting with Asher, after which Likud officials assessed that they had succeeded in halting progress in negotiations with the haredi parties.

Likud has warned the haredi parties against surrendering their bargaining power before receiving tangible concessions.

Party officials also raised concerns that an Eisenkot-led government could advance appointments and changes in the judicial system contrary to the haredi parties' positions.

Likud officials believe that if the haredi parties insist on passing a conscription arrangement before the government is established, Eisenkot will struggle to meet the demand and negotiations could reach a deadlock.

Alongside efforts to preserve the alliance with the haredi parties, Netanyahu continues to promote the possibility of establishing a unity government, although the Eisenkot-led bloc views the proposal with suspicion.

Meanwhile, Ahmad Tibi claimed on Friday that Natan Eshel, a Netanyahu associate, had contacted him in an attempt to influence the conduct of the Arab parties.

Tibi presented correspondence that he said took place with Eshel before the elections, afterward, and following the publication of the results.

He claimed an attempt was made to persuade the Arab parties not to support legislation against Netanyahu and not to join the effort to establish an Eisenkot-led government.

Tibi also claimed that a government minister had tried to persuade him not to trust the Eisenkot-led bloc and to favor another election.

Likud denied the allegations, stating: "A complete lie."

The dispute over cooperation with the Arab parties is already creating tensions within the Eisenkot-led bloc.

Miriam Peretz, the mother of MK Elisaf Peretz of the Yashar! party, said her son would leave the Knesset if a government was established with Arab parties.

Eisenkot responded that he trusts Elisaf Peretz and his judgment, and criticized attempts to tarnish the entire Arab public because of disagreements with its political representatives.

The issue is particularly sensitive because establishing a minority government could require the support or abstention of Arab parties, while some of the bloc's partners oppose relying on them.

Eisenkot-led bloc plans legislative push and parliamentary oversight

Eisenkot has made clear that he intends to work toward establishing a broad government.

"I mean it," he said.

His associates emphasized that a security briefing he held with Netanyahu on Thursday, which lasted nearly two hours, had not changed his position that the government should be replaced as soon as possible.

The meeting was attended by the prime minister's military secretary and focused on security and diplomatic issues.

Against the backdrop of the security briefing and coalition negotiations, the Eisenkot-led bloc is demanding guarantees of parliamentary oversight of the caretaker government's security decisions.

Alongside coalition negotiations, the Eisenkot-led bloc is preparing to use its Knesset majority to first advance the repeal of legislation weakening the status of the attorney-general, followed by the reversal of changes to the composition of the Judicial Selection Committee.

Repealing the legislation concerning the Police Internal Investigations Department, known as Mahash, is a lower priority.

At the same time, plans are being made to establish special committees to advance legislation concerning the incapacitation of a prime minister, a state commission of inquiry, and the communications law.

The scope of legislation that can be advanced is limited by the caretaker period.

The Eisenkot-led bloc is therefore distinguishing between laws it seeks to complete repealing during Eisenkot's mandate to form a government and additional legislative initiatives that it intends to begin advancing in the Knesset.

The ability to complete these efforts depends on the pace of parliamentary work and the legal restrictions applying to legislative procedures during this period.

At the same time, the bloc is working to consolidate its control over Knesset committees.

Among the central steps are the appointment of Matan Kahana as Knesset speaker, the establishment of the Arrangements Committee, and the appointment of members to key committees.

These measures would enable the Eisenkot-led bloc to advance legislation and oversee the caretaker government even before a new government is established.

After Likud delayed the convening of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Liberman is expected to assume the chairmanship of the temporary committee on Monday, amid the dispute over parliamentary oversight of the caretaker government's security decisions.

Liran Avishar Ben-Horin is also expected to be appointed chairwoman of the temporary Finance Committee.

Bennett announced that his party had already submitted 17 bills, including the Those Who Serve Law, legislation to establish a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7, and additional bills concerning security, social affairs, and the economy.

Likud officials believe the haredi demand to pass a conscription arrangement before the government is sworn in is the hardest obstacle Eisenkot will face.

UTJ has yet to announce whether it will join a government without Shas, while Liberman continues to oppose reliance on Ra'am.

Eisenkot must secure the haredi parties' agreement on a conscription arrangement, obtain his partners' consent to the necessary compromises, and assemble the majority required to swear in a government, all within the time remaining to complete its formation.