CFP Bubble Watch: Three things to watch during tonight's first ranking

Go ahead, pick a team, any team -- it has a hole in it.

Undefeated Miami? It's giving up 252 passing yards per game -- No. 122 in the nation.

Undefeated Utah? Its schedule ranks No. 83 right now.

Undefeated UCLA? The Bruins are No. 45 nationally in offensive efficiency -- against the No. 77-ranked schedule.

The College Football Playoff selection committee has some work to do before its first of six rankings is announced Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The three remaining undefeated teams are the fewest entering November since 2014, the first year of the CFP. Even the traditional heavyweights are limping into the month with a flat tire, as Ohio State has multiple losses before November for the first time since 2011. Week 10 will provide much greater clarity, but we're not there yet -- and the selection committee isn't supposed to look ahead. Which means this might be their most difficult ranking of the season, as three major questions loom:

• Will they honor BYU's head-to-head win against Notre Dame, even though the Cougars have a bad loss to UCF and were underwhelming in their win against Arizona State?

• Is Ohio State still a national title contender without injured starting quarterback Julian Sayin in the lineup?

• How does the committee sort through the two-loss SEC teams, and who's the best?

Tuesday's answers to those questions will shed some light on how much this group values schedule strength and head-to-head wins. There are multiple examples of both littered throughout the top half of teams under consideration.

It's far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build -- or bust -- their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with "would be in" status below are in this week's bracket based on the latest projection. It will be updated Tuesday night using the selection committee's first Top 25. For each Power 4 conference, we've also listed "last team in" and "first team out." These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled "still in the mix" haven't been eliminated but have work to do. A team that is "out" will have to wait until next season.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the Week 9 projection.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 6
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Texas

Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels have the second-best chance in the SEC to reach the playoff (61.5%) behind Georgia (80.8%), but those teams play each other Saturday. Ole Miss has a precarious position because of a lopsided loss to Florida, though the committee will at least talk about the fact it happened on the road following an emotional home win against LSU and the Rebels' former coach, Lane Kiffin. Some committee members will also question Ole Miss' defense, which is No. 25 in total efficiency, but the group will generally reward the Rebels for wins against ranked opponents LSU and Missouri.

First team out: LSU. The Tigers were projected in the No. 12 spot heading into Tuesday's ranking, partly because they have outscored back-to-back SEC opponents Mississippi State and Auburn by a combined margin of 69-17. They seem to be putting it all together at the right time, ranking No. 5 in total efficiency. The season-opening win against Clemson will be respected in the committee room, but LSU is still lacking a statement win, which is why the committee might like Alabama more. The Tide has a 16-point loss at Tennessee, but beat Kentucky -- which LSU did not. Alabama and LSU were on a bye heading into the first ranking and play each other Saturday. ESPN's FPI gives LSU a 57% chance to win.

Still in the mix: Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee. The Vols have a double-digit win against the Tide, but Tennessee and Missouri each have less than an 8% chance to reach the SEC championship game, according to ESPN Analytics. Alabama, though, has the third-best chance (29.2%) behind Georgia and Kentucky. Tennessee and Missouri also have less than a 10% chance each to win out, while the Tide has the best chance of the three (36%) to avoid a third loss.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, UCLA, Ohio State

Last team in: Ohio State. The wins at Indiana and at Iowa kept the Buckeyes in the top 12, but at No. 10, they're in an uncertain position. The committee got its first look at Ohio State with freshman starting quarterback Luke Fahey in the lineup against USC, and he played a respectable game with no interceptions, but the offense couldn't keep up with the Trojans. Ohio State was held without a touchdown on its first nine drives, but its defense might have been more concerning. The Buckeyes gave up a season-high 30 points, and 11 penalties and a fumble will also raise some eyebrows in the committee meeting room. But unlike other contenders, Ohio State has played the No. 18-ranked schedule, is No. 9 in ESPN's strength of record metric, and is ranked No. 6 in overall efficiency. The committee will consider that both losses came on the road, and the Week 2 loss to Texas was by one point.

First team out: USC. Is it too little, too late, for the Trojans? Nope. USC still has an 8.7% chance to reach the Big Ten championship game, and has road games at Indiana and UCLA. Those results either boost USC into the top 12, or knock the Trojans out for good. ESPN's FPI gives USC a 21% chance to win in Bloomington and a 52.9% chance to win at crosstown rival UCLA. USC fans should be rooting for Ohio State to rebound and stay relevant because it will keep the Week 9 win valuable to the committee.

Still in the mix: Oregon, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin. They're only listed here because they can still reach the Big Ten title game, albeit with at least a 1.5% chance.

Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, Oregon, Purdue, Rutgers, Washington

Big 12

Would be in: BYU, Utah

Last team in: Utah. The Utes might have a case to be ranked higher than both BYU and Notre Dame because some committee members might value their undefeated record and win against Houston. BYU has the win over Notre Dame, but a bad loss at UCF. And Notre Dame's best wins are against Wisconsin and North Carolina. But Utah has schedule concerns, as theirs is ranked No. 83 to this point, according to ESPN Analytics. Utah is also ranked outside of the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies. Saturday's game against BYU will settle who should be ranked higher, but BYU will be in trouble if it loses. There is already skepticism in the room about how high BYU should be ranked with an 8-point loss at UCF that looked even worse Friday night after Baylor hammered the Knights 41-9 in Orlando, Florida.

First team out: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have the second-best chance (45.2%) to reach the Big 12 title game after Saturday's important win against Arizona -- just a bit ahead of BYU (39.3%). That's because Texas Tech has at least a 60% chance to win each of its remaining games, but back-to-back trips to Oklahoma State and Baylor won't be easy. The Red Raiders missed the top-12 projection again this week because they rank No. 27 in overall efficiency against the No. 68 schedule to this point, and are No. 52 in offensive efficiency. The 13-point loss at Cincinnati was also damaging. Benching quarterback Will Hammond for Thomas Castellanos could be the spark they need to earn some style points down the stretch.

Still in the mix: Houston, Arizona, Oklahoma State. All three of these teams still have at least a 10% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics, and any Power 4 team that can win its conference, can reach the CFP.

Out: Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

ACC

Would be in: Miami

Last team in: Miami. The Canes lead the country in ESPN's strength of record metric, and are No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 3 in overall efficiency. It would be a surprise to see any team other than Miami at the top of the committee's list. No team in the country has a better chance to reach the playoff (98.3%), because even with a loss at Notre Dame on Saturday, Miami is still the heavy favorite to earn a guaranteed bid as the ACC champion. Miami also currently has the best chance to win the national title (18.7%), just ahead of Notre Dame (13.3%). Saturday's game in South Bend is Miami's last road trip of the regular season.

First team out: Wake Forest. The one-loss Demon Deacons could be a surprise team in the committee's top 12. Their lone loss is to Miami, they're No. 11 in strength of record, No. 7 in offensive efficiency, and their strength of schedule is No. 43, which is better than Miami, Notre Dame, BYU and Utah. So why isn't Wake Forest in the projected top 12? The Deacs lost the one big game they played by double digits and don't have any wins against currently ranked opponents. The Sept. 26 road win at Louisville (5-3) is their best win and will be respected in the room, but it's not as good as what most of the other contenders have. Wake Forest is Miami's most likely opponent in the ACC championship game, and the Deacs have the 11th-best chance to reach the CFP (59%) just behind Alabama (60.3%).

Still in the mix: SMU. With road losses to Louisville and Syracuse, SMU isn't a playoff team -- unless it somehow wins the ACC. And because the ACC has traditionally been one of the most unpredictable leagues, it's not over until Miami says it is. SMU still has a 13.4% chance to reach the ACC championship game, third best behind Miami and Wake Forest. SMU plays Wake Forest on Nov. 14. And if SMU can beat the Wake and win at Notre Dame the following week, the ACC will once again flip everything you thought you knew about the ACC and Notre Dame in the CFP.

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have a 79.2% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, but Saturday's game against Miami will change that significantly -- for better or for worse. ESPN's FPI currently gives Notre Dame a 61.3% chance to beat Miami at home, which the one-loss Irish desperately need to do to follow their own preseason mantra and "leave no doubt" in the committee meeting room. If Notre Dame loses, there's no guarantee the Irish finish in the committee's top 12, especially since its strength of schedule currently ranks No. 55 and lacks a true statement win against a ranked opponent. Notre Dame's best wins are against Wisconsin and North Carolina -- two unranked opponents that both lost in Week 9.

Group of 6

Would be in: Boise State. Boise State, did that really happen? And was anyone on the East Coast awake to see it? The Broncos led 28-3 at halftime before giving up 36 straight points to fall behind 39-28 -- and came back to win by one point. The Broncos still have the best chance of any Group of 6 contender to reach the playoff (61.9%), well above UTSA, which has the second-best chance (16.3%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. ESPN's FPI gives Boise State at least a 75% chance to win each of its remaining games. Barring an upset, this seems like the Broncos' playoff spot to lose.

Still in the mix: UTSA, New Mexico. UTSA's only loss so far was at Texas, but the Roadrunners' schedule ranks No. 88 in the country. New Mexico's lone loss was to Oklahoma -- which beat Texas -- but their schedule ranks No. 114 in the country, which will be extremely difficult to overcome in the committee meeting room.

Bracket

Based on the rankings in this week's projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 3 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 4 Notre Dame

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 18 and 19

No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Utah
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 10 Ohio State at No. 7 UCLA
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Kentucky

Quarterfinal games

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.

No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Utah winner vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 11 Ole Miss/No. 6 Indiana winner vs. No. 3 BYU
No. 10 Ohio State/No. 7 UCLA winner vs. No. 2 Georgia
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Kentucky winner vs. No. 1 Miami