Canelo vs. Mbilli: 15 numbers to know before Saturday's title fight

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Canelo vs. Mbilli: 15 numbers to know before Saturday's title fight

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• Andres FerrariOct 28, 2026, 07:29 AM ET

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  Andres Ferrari is ESPN.com's boxing and MMA senior editor.

Canelo Alvarez returns to the ring this weekend as a title challenger for the first time since facing Dmitry Bivol for the WBA light heavyweight title in May 2022. Alvarez takes on WBC super middleweight champion Christian Mbilli on Saturday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (DAZN PPV, 1 p.m. ET).

Alvarez (63-3-2, 39 KOs) is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Terence Crawford in September 2025, his only defeat since the Bivol fight. He'll look to reclaim one of the super middleweight titles he lost to Crawford.

Mbilli (29-0-1, 24 KOs) won the WBC interim title with a victory over Maciej Sulecki in June 2025 and made his first defense in a split draw against Lester Martinez in September 2025. Mbilli was elevated to full champion in January after the WBC stripped Crawford of the title.

Although Alvarez enters as the challenger and gives up an inch in height and nearly two inches in reach, he is favored to win.

Let's break down the super middleweight title fight by the numbers, using data from CompuBox.

Note: All odds per DraftKings.

-330: Odds for Canelo to win the super middleweight fight.

+10,000: Odds for Mbilli to win in the first three rounds, the longest odds for any outcome in the fight.

-135: Odds for Canelo to win a decision or technical decision.

+2000: Odds for Canelo to win in Round 8 or 9, the shortest odds for any round-specific outcome in the fight.

15: Canelo's age when he turned professional in October 2005. He won the WBC junior middleweight title at the age of 20.

0: Common opponents between Canelo and Mbilli across their professional careers -- a total of 98 fights combined. Zero is also the number of times Canelo and Mbilli have been knocked down.

28: Major title fights for Canelo (25-3) in his career. Mbilli has never fought for a full world title (he's fought twice for interim titles).

13: Months since Canelo and Mbilli last fought. Canelo lost a unanimous decision to Crawford in September 2025 in Las Vegas. Mbilli fought to a split draw with Martinez on the undercard.

44.9%: Percentage of power punches landed in his career by Canelo per 12 rounds compared to 46.1% for Mbilli. Both are well above the super middleweight division average of 36.1%.

78: Mbilli's average number of punches thrown per round across his fights against Lester Martinez, Sergiy Derevyanchenko, Rohan Murdock, Demond Nicholson and Carlos Gongora -- 27 more than the super middleweight division average of 51. Canelo is far more economical, throwing just 35.1 punches per round, 42.9 fewer than Mbilli.

57.7: Mbilli's average power punches thrown in the fights listed above, landing an incredible 26.6 per round, 16.2 more than the super middleweight division average. Canelo lands only 8.8 of 19.6.

33.6%: Percentage of body punches landed by Canelo per 12 rounds.

49%: Percentage of power punches Martinez landed in Mbilli's most recent fight. By comparison, Canelo's opponents land just 31.2% of their power punches, the sixth best defensive percentage among champions and title contenders in the super middleweight division.

5.3: Power punches landed by Canelo's opponents per round, the eighth best defensive percentage among champions and title contenders in the super middleweight division.

3.8: Jabs landed per round by Mbilli out of 20.3 thrown (just 18.7%). Canelo lands only 3.5 of 15.5 (22.6%). Both are below the super middleweight division average of 4.2 jabs landed per round.