Can Finland's President put Europe on a path to negotiations with Russia?

Finland's President is being touted as the vital figure to represent Europe in negotiations with Russia after the bloc was challenged to engage with the high-level negotiations on the Ukraine war.

Diplomatic efforts intensified this month to end the war in Ukraine, with US negotiators calling for a new security framework for Europe.

Finland's Alexander Stubb has emerged as a leading interlocutor with Moscow, with his combination of diplomatic experience, strong relationships with France and Germany and, most importantly, a direct line to the US President. Donald Trump praised Mr Stubb's golfing skills when the pair held talks in Florida.

Europe rapidly needs an experienced politician at the negotiating table, security experts have said, who can influence in any agreement brokered by the US and Russia.

Show caption: President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zel…

There will be fresh talks in Abu Dhabi next week involving Russia, the US and Ukraine, the first trilateral discussions since February.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni this week wrote a letter to European Council President Antonio Costa calling for a single European voice in the deepening negotiations over the conflict. She asked that consideration be given to naming the lead negotiator at an informal gathering of the bloc's governments next week in Ireland.

Best suited

Gregoire Roos, director of the Europe programme at Chatham House, said he was “absolutely convinced” Mr Stubb, 58, was best suited for that role.

“It has to be someone with strong political capital and someone who has a mandate, and Stubb is an elected president,” he told The National.

Mr Roos said the Finnish leader had several important advantages, including his ability to command the confidence of France and understand Germany's position while having good relations with Mr Trump.

“He speaks French, studied in Paris and is trusted by the French,” he said. Mr Stubb has also spent an entire day playing golf with Mr Trump.

His Finnish nationality is an important consideration, as the leader of a smaller European country would be more acceptable to other capitals than a representative from France or Germany.

Show caption: Finnish soldiers during training in northern Finland. EPA

Russian history

Furthermore, Finland's history with Russia could prove valuable, as it shares a 1,300km border with Russia and has experienced confrontation with the Soviet Union, including the Winter War of 1939-40, which resulted in the loss of territory but allowed Finland to retain its relative autonomy from its powerful neighbour, a policy often referred to as “Finlandisation”.

That is relevant as the controversial proposal of Finlandisation for Ukraine could mean Kyiv having to accept Russian land grabs and security demands in return for peace.

Mr Stubb's commitment to strong European defence alongside his White House relationships is a major positive, said Oana Zamfir, head of European security at the Rusi think tank.

“He has been able to link with Donald Trump and with the American administration more widely, while at the same time being very resolute in his position towards Russian aggression and a very clear supporter of Ukraine,” she said.

Crucially, he could be trusted to represent European and Ukrainian interests rather than seeking a compromise with Moscow at any cost.

Show caption: President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin …

A 'very big' agreement?

Former US ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor said there was no indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin had softened his position ahead of the planned talks in the UAE, adding that so far discussions had focused on the mechanics of a potential ceasefire.

Mr Taylor said the parties could make progress on technical arrangements for monitoring a potential ceasefire, including US-provided drone surveillance, sensors and the creation of a demilitarised zone in which troops would withdraw a specified distance from either side.

“The real question is whether or not Putin has changed his mind and is willing to come to the table or have his people come to the table and negotiate a serious ceasefire,” Mr Taylor said.

“So far, there’s no indication, no indication whatsoever, that Putin has changed his mind.”

Mr Taylor pointed to statements by Mr Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, saying Moscow had so far shown no flexibility in its demands.

Ben Barry, a security expert at the IISS think tank, said any European representative would need a clear mandate from both the EU and the UK, as well as credibility with Washington, Moscow and Kyiv.

But he questioned whether a European leader could exert influence over Mr Trump unless the US President wanted to “secure a legacy as a peacemaker”, especially following the US midterm elections.

Speaking to reporters in the White House on Thursday, Mr Trump there was going to be a "very big" agreement that "might involve all of Europe."

Mr Stubb, alongside Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, has already established a rare direct channel to Mr Putin, and held a 90-minute phone conversation with the Russian President last week.

Mr Stubb described the conversation as “frank and substantive”, although Mr Store acknowledged there remained “big differences in views”. The Finnish leader, who later briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, added that peace “will not be achieved through silence”.

Hopes of a broader deal have risen after Jared Kushner suggested on Thursday a European security agreement, potentially turning negotiations over Ukraine into a grand bargain between Russia and the West.

Mr Trump's special envoy said the US President had advanced discussions with European leaders about establishing a “wider security architecture” for a lasting peace.

In a statement published on X, he outlined the objectives, including measures to reduce the risk of escalation and a framework for European security.

Show caption: Images for Jigsaw puzzles

Abu Dhabi summit

If the Abu Dhabi talks go well, Mr Kushner said the intention was to move towards a broader multilateral format with European countries.

“Whoever makes a deal with Russia, it is Europe that's going to have to make the deal stick,” said Ms Zamfir.

“Ukraine is not going to accept anything that falls short of very solid, credible guarantees that this is going to be a sustainable deal.”

Mr Stubb has also been vocal about the need to maintain pressure on Moscow. In an interview with The National last month, he described Ukraine as the reason for his return to politics after stepping away from public life following his time as prime minister.

“This has probably been the most rewarding time in my professional career,” he said. “I enjoy every minute of it, understanding that it is a difficult position.”

The Finnish presidency is particularly important because the president is responsible for foreign policy and serves as commander-in-chief.

European leaders may now see him as the ideal figure to negotiate a deal that could end the war in Ukraine and establish a wider framework for security across the continent after years of instability.