Burnham’s North Sea drilling dilemma risks U.K. climate leadership

The fate of one of the U.K.’s largest undeveloped oil fields has become a test of Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s approach to global warming as he heads to the COP31 climate talks in Turkey.

A majority of U.K. cabinet ministers support drilling at the Rosebank oil and gas field in the North Sea, but a decision on the project isn’t expected for several weeks. That timetable would put any announcement after COP31, which began on Monday and runs for a fortnight.

The timing is sensitive. Britain has spent years urging other countries to accelerate their move away from fossil fuels, including as the host of COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. But a spike in fuel prices and concerns over energy security, sparked by conflict in the Middle East, have changed the political landscape.

While Rosebank would bring significant direct investment for U.K. businesses as well as boosting the Treasury’s coffers with billions of pounds of tax revenue, detractors say it would also undermine the country’s long-stated goal of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to net zero by 2050.

“Greenlighting Rosebank will deal a further severe blow to the U.K.’s reputation as a global climate leader,” said Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics.

“There is nothing pragmatic about allowing new fossil-fuel production when the U.K. is suffering more and more damage to lives and livelihoods from climate change,” he said.

Government officials have stressed that the decision will be made by Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh alone as part of a quasi-judicial process. She has signaled a more cautious approach to Rosebank than to the Jackdaw gas field, which she approved last month, saying that domestic production would strengthen Britain’s energy security and help finance the transition to cleaner energy. Officials say the Jackdaw decision is consistent with the U.K.’s net-zero goal.

Rosebank presents a bigger hurdle than Jackdaw as Burnham seeks to demonstrate at COP31 that Britain remains committed to its legally binding carbon targets. He’s due to address delegates on Thursday morning, before flying to Dublin for a gathering of European leaders.

If Burnham’s government approves Rosebank, “no speech at COP31 will disguise the double standard,” said Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, a Kenya-based think tank. Burnham “must stand up to the oil industry and put investment into clean energy.”

Government officials have stressed that a decision on the Rosebank oil and gas field in the North Sea will be made by U.K. Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh alone as part of a quasi-judicial process. | BLOOMBERG

Since Burnham came to power in July, the focus of U.K. energy policy has been keeping costs down. Chancellor John Healey’s first budget last month declared a “new course on energy,” in which the government’s priority would be “first and foremost cheaper energy, with clean power key to achieving this.”

However, Fahnbulleh’s predecessor, Ed Miliband, also said he favored a pragmatic approach to the North Sea. About £2 billion ($2.7 billion) of energy department savings confirmed in the budget were initially outlined by Miliband earlier this year.

U.K. wholesale gas prices have more than doubled from a year ago as the war in Iran disrupts supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Most British homes use gas for heating and gas-fired plants still play a key role in setting electricity prices, meaning the country is particularly exposed to global price swings, and its reliance on imports is expected to increase this winter.

Asked this week about Burnham’s apparent retreat on green policies, including the potential green light for Rosebank, his spokesman Tom Wells said the U.K. remains committed to its net-zero goals.

The prime minister’s attendance at COP31 “sends a clear message that the U.K. remains a climate leader,” Wells told reporters. “We have one of the world’s most ambitious plans to transition away from fossil fuels and electrify our economy.”

Burnham goes to the climate talks arguing that accelerating electrification will help reduce the world’s exposure to volatile fossil-fuel prices.

But the U.K. is yet to sign up to a pledge to increase the global share of energy consumed coming from electricity to 35% by 2035, which summit host Turkey is calling for and which various European Union members have backed. Burnham’s government has argued that countries should focus on delivering existing commitments.

“Britain is used to being seen as a leader at COP conferences, but when it comes to electrification, we are lagging behind,” said Camilla Born, who is the chief executive officer of the Electrify Britain campaign and was an adviser to the government for COP26. “That’s left the country in an uncomfortable fiscal position, with inflation soaring from overdependence on oil and gas, and ministers needing to find billions every winter for short-term relief from sky-high bills.”