America Will Have Less Influence in the Middle East. Is That So Bad?

Each time the United States seeks to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East, it finds itself pulled back in. The Iran war, for all its flaws, could offer a chance for a genuine reset.

When the Iran war finally does reach some kind of conclusion, the United States will not simply pack up and leave the Middle East, no matter how much more damage Tehran inflicts. But Washington must seek to reshape its military presence. That seems likely to involve a reduction in troops and equipment and the recognition that, over time, the Persian Gulf states could view America as merely one security partner among many options.

This new, more piecemeal posture would mean ceding power and influence. The Middle East would no longer develop on U.S. terms. But it would allow Washington to focus on its core interests and not get bogged down in unpopular regional wars. It would also give Arab states greater ability to build their own security apparatus. Building a new Middle East future will require guts, leave partners frustrated and impose major financial costs, but it’s a price worth paying.

Under its “America first” agenda, the Trump administration has sought to remake the U.S. role in much of the world. The agenda aimed to move away from American underwriting of global security. The administration’s strategy in the Middle East has been unclear, however — and the Iran war highlighted its contradictions. As a candidate, Donald Trump criticized U.S. involvement in overseas conflict. His administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy claimed that the Iran threat was diminished. Yet he embarked on another devastating war that entrenched the Islamic republic’s leadership and caused Tehran to retaliate — with conflicting objectives.

Since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in February, nearly all U.S. bases and military installations in the region have been damaged, rendering the tools once used to project power far less effective. Rebuilding that same footprint poses a serious risk. Technology has changed since American bases in the Middle East were built, many over half a century ago. More recent upgrades have helped, but the bases are outmoded and air defenses insufficient to counter the threat.

Iran has expanded its medium- and longer-range missile capacity and developed drones that have wreaked havoc on battlefields from Ukraine to the Gulf. Tehran’s ability to accurately strike U.S. outposts means that, after the war is over, it will make little sense for Washington to continue to station significant numbers of troops and aircraft at major bases within Iran’s reach. Already, Iran’s missiles and drones have damaged at least 81 aircraft — and that doesn’t take into account the human toll. At least 21 U.S. service members have been killed and almost 900 wounded, while thousands of Iranians have been killed, including numerous civilians. Countries throughout the Middle East have suffered military and civilian casualties.

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